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- Besides the cash register: cash turnover will grow by a quarter despite the efforts of the authorities
Besides the cash register: cash turnover will grow by a quarter despite the efforts of the authorities
The volume of cash in circulation in Russia will grow by at least 22%, and in the worst case scenario — by 35% in the next five years. This follows from the estimates of the Central Bank, which were reviewed by Izvestia. An increase in interest in cash is predicted, even though in the coming years the authorities plan to actively work to whitewash the economy and reduce the share of cash in it. Restrictions may apply to limits on the export of money abroad and large transactions using "live" money. Who may be affected by these measures can be found in the Izvestia article.
What is the reason for the growing volume of cash in the economy
The Central Bank expects an increase in the volume of cash in circulation. At the beginning of this year, it amounted to 19.7 trillion. In the baseline scenario, the regulator predicts an increase of 22%, to 24 trillion rubles. In the risky scenario, an even more noticeable increase is expected — by 35%, to 26.6 trillion, according to the document "Main directions of development of cash circulation for 2026-2030."
The share of cash payments will cease to decline actively and will stabilize around 10% in the coming years, the Bank of Russia expects. For comparison, from 2021 to 2025, it fell from 25.7% to 12.2%. This means that the previous trend towards cashless payments will slow down dramatically.
Cash is still in demand among the population, which is confirmed by surveys and banking statistics. According to Alfa-Bank's press service, about 45% of Russians still use them when paying for purchases. Russian Standard statistics show that ATMs are more often used to replenish accounts, but the picture is different in terms of transaction amounts: from January to September 2025, 55% of the total volume of transactions was for cash withdrawals. This suggests that Russians have become more likely to keep money "in their hands." Izvestia has sent inquiries to other major banks in the Russian Federation.
The growth of cash is already having an impact on the financial system. In 2025, an increase in the volume of banknotes in circulation led to an outflow of liquidity from banks by about 1 trillion rubles, according to the Central Bank. This exceeds the figures of previous years.
Izvestia appealed to the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development for information on the increase in cash in circulation.
Since the beginning of 2021, the volume of cash has increased by 46.4% and reached 19.7 trillion rubles by 2026. During periods of heightened uncertainty, the demand for cash increased dramatically, especially in 2022, when the Bank of Russia issued as many banknotes during peak days as it usually does not issue in a whole year.
The demand for cash in the second half of 2025 could increase due to interruptions in non-cash payments that occurred due to unstable Internet, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam. For many, this has become a signal that it is worth keeping a reserve of cash with you in case of an emergency.
"The psychological factor also plays an important role: in conditions of uncertainty, people instinctively prefer to keep some of their funds at hand," said Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and financial expert.
An additional factor could be the strengthening of bank control over suspicious transactions as part of the fight against fraud, economist Andrei Barkhota added. Some citizens preferred to increase the share of cash payments in order to avoid problems with blocking, Olga Belenkaya added.
Why the amount of cash worries the authorities
Increasing the volume of cash creates additional costs and risks for the economy, since the more cash in circulation, the lower the level of control and the more favorable the environment for the shadow sector, explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
"A 35% increase in cash turnover in five years may mean that operations in the shadows will not decrease, but, on the contrary, will grow," she noted.
The authorities are already preparing a response to this challenge. As part of the Plan for Structural Changes in the Economy until 2030, the government is developing measures to whitewash settlements, including control over cash turnover and its export abroad. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously reported that the Cabinet of Ministers is implementing a set of steps to encourage the transition to non-cash forms of payment. In addition, on December 8, Vladimir Putin called for increased control over the circulation of cash at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of the shadow economy is 10-12% of GDP, which is considered a relatively low level, but the government's goal is to reduce it by another 1.5 percentage points in three years, which could bring the budget about 1 trillion rubles annually starting in 2027, said private investor and financial expert Fyodor Sidorov. Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, added that control will be carried out over both non-cash and cash payments, and the Federal Tax Service already has technologies to detect attempts to evade taxes, including through cash.
How will Russians pay in the next five years
Measures to reduce cash turnover will inevitably affect individuals, as new forms of payment — from biometrics to the digital ruble — will make transactions more transparent for banks and the state, Natalia Milchakova noted. According to her, this may increase security, but it will reduce the confidentiality of calculations.
The government will seek a balance between encouraging non-cash payments and limiting cash flows, said Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom-Trust investment company. Among the possible steps, he calls lowering limits on cash exports abroad, strengthening control over property transactions, as well as potential restrictions on withdrawals and deposits of large amounts.
With a further reduction in the share of cash payments, banks can theoretically begin to introduce fees for withdrawing money from ATMs, Natalia Milchakova believes. At the same time, the digital ruble, according to her, is highly likely to be put into circulation as early as 2026, but in the first year or two it will not lead to a sharp decrease in cash turnover. His task is to show the population that cash has a reliable alternative.
Measures to whitewash the economy will primarily be aimed at those who work in the shadows or receive low incomes, Fyodor Sidorov noted. Since January 1, the Central Bank has expanded the list of signs of suspicious transactions, which is why banks are required to more carefully check large transfers, especially between accounts of one client with subsequent withdrawal of funds to third parties. This increases control over questionable schemes, but it is not aimed at mass restrictions for the population.
At the same time, conscientious citizens are unlikely to encounter noticeable inconveniences, concluded Fyodor Sidorov. The regulator acts quite carefully and does not seek to force changes. In the coming years, people will still have the opportunity to choose between cash, non-cash payments and the digital ruble, and the transition to a more transparent financial system will be gradual.
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