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- Small armor: the United States will need no more than 10 thousand soldiers to capture Greenland.
Small armor: the United States will need no more than 10 thousand soldiers to capture Greenland.
Tensions are rising around Greenland: Denmark is sending an additional contingent of troops there to practice military maneuvers due to threats from Donald Trump. At the same time, Operation Arctic Resilience continues on the island. Against this background, Izvestia turned to the popular American neural network for help — it modeled a possible US operation to seize autonomy. According to the hypothetical scenario of artificial intelligence, at the first stage, Washington could need up to 10,000 troops to control key cities, ports and infrastructure — experts interviewed by the editorial board generally agreed with this. At the same time, as the interlocutors note, the United States would most likely not have encountered organized armed resistance on the island.
The Danish Armed Forces are practicing tactics to protect Greenland
On January 20, Copenhagen decided to send 58 more troops to the island in addition to the 60-man unit already stationed there. According to the Chief of Staff of the Danish Army, Peter Boysen, the Danish Armed Forces are practicing tactics to protect Greenland and possible clashes.
Probably, such trends were discussed on January 19 by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. Although the details of the conversation remained non-public, the latter noted that Copenhagen and Nuuk had proposed the creation of a NATO mission in Greenland and the Arctic amid threats from the United States. He also expressed hope for "speeding up work" in order to receive the mission framework "in the near future."
So far, all military missions in the Danish autonomous Region are officially conducted under the auspices of Operation Arctic Resilience. Six countries are participating in it: Great Britain, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland, France, and Sweden. There are 24 foreign military personnel in total. There was also Germany, but it withdrew its contingent after 44 hours on the island. It is possible that the decision was accelerated against the background of Washington's tariff threats against countries that have sent their military to autonomy. There are now about 200 Danish soldiers in Greenland. However, there are just as many Americans on the island. They are located at the Pituffik space base. It was there that the aircraft of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) headed on January 20. According to the agency, this was agreed with the Danish government.
The message about the warships of the US Army appeared on the same day when the head of the White House, Donald Trump, once again confirmed Washington's firm intention to establish control over Greenland, saying: "There is no turning back." Moreover, earlier in a letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Garu Stera, the American president said that he "no longer feels the obligation to think exclusively about peace," since he did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize for ending conflicts.
According to media reports, Trump was inspired to lay claim to Greenland by the successful operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. And this fits into the logic of the current administration. During Trump's second term alone, the United States used force in at least seven countries: in addition to Venezuela, these are Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Nigeria and Iran. The same number of times Trump has used military force in all four years of his first term.
At the same time, he justifies his claims against Greenland by allegedly threatening to seize the island from Russia and China, and attributes insufficient attention to the security problems of the autonomy to Denmark.
Against this background, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia "has nothing to do" with the Greenland issue, but is closely monitoring the development of the situation and will draw conclusions based on its outcome. At the same time, he noted that he did not see the conditions for concluding a hypothetical mutual assistance agreement with Greenland, and called the discussion around the island an example of the accumulating crisis trends within Western society.
What would the capture of Greenland look like?
White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said that regarding the possible "acquisition" of Greenland, "all options are always on the table," stressing that "the first of them is diplomacy." But the White House does not publicly rule out a military scenario either. However, it is not yet clear what this might look like in practice. To carry out the operation to capture Nicolas Maduro and the military blockade of Venezuela, the United States concentrated the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and 11 other warships in the Caribbean region, and the total number of American forces in the area of operation exceeded 15,000 troops.
At the same time, it is impossible to simply extrapolate the size of Venezuela to Greenland and thus calculate the grouping of troops necessary to seize Danish autonomy. Izvestia decided to turn to artificial intelligence to simulate a hypothetical situation in which the United States would annex Greenland without receiving a direct military response from Europe. Experts are confident that she will not come into conflict with the United States over Greenland. The EU militarily relies on Americans, and a significant part of the arsenals of the EU countries rely on US samples and technologies. The United States could limit the functionality of high-tech systems and thereby dramatically reduce the likelihood of their use against its troops.
Even if we imagine a scenario in which Europe would have a real chance in a direct clash with the Americans, it is unclear how the united European group would act at all. The issues of command and coordination between national units in this case remain open, Andrei Kortunov, scientific director of the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia.
It is important to note that Greenland is an Arctic island with extreme weather conditions. Its area is 2.166 million square kilometers, which is more than, for example, Mexico, but 81% of the island's territory is covered with ice. The population of the autonomous region is about 56 thousand people, but about 90% live on the west coast, since its eastern part is practically uninhabited.
In the event of the annexation of the island, from the point of view of AI, at the moment Washington would need to establish control over only five major cities of Greenland: the capital Nuuk (population 18 thousand people), the port city of Sisimiut (5.5 thousand), Ilulissat (4.5 thousand), Kakortok (3 thousand) and Aasiaat (3 thousand) In total, the Americans would have to control 13 airports, six ports, energy infrastructure facilities and mines.
For this, at the first stage, the United States would need from 5,000 to 10,000 soldiers, the neural network believes. The operation would include two or three brigades of Marines or airborne troops, for example, the 82nd Airborne Division of the United States. From 1 thousand to 2 thousand troops had to be sent to Nuuk, from 500 to 1 thousand — to control Sisimiut and Ilulissat, and the rest would form a reserve and would be engaged in logistics.
This figure is quite sufficient to control order and "prevent individual excesses among supporters of independence," Andrei Kortunov said. However, this is on condition that there will be no counter-intervention in the form of an amphibious assault by the united European forces on the island.
It is also worth considering that there will be no resistance on the island. It arises when people believe that he has a chance of success, Sergei Lebedev, Candidate of Political Sciences, researcher at the IMVES HSE, emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia. In the case of Greenland, local forces are unlikely to try to engage in direct confrontation: when faced with obviously overwhelming military superiority, the motivation to fight quickly disappears.
At the same time, the type of military operation would most likely be mixed, but for the most part a landing from the sea with air support would be used, the neural network believes. The experts agree: A likely scenario is an amphibious operation like Normandy or Iwo Jima. An airborne operation is unlikely, as the island's infrastructure would not allow a landing, and the weather and remoteness of Greenland would create additional difficulties.
The United States has enough amphibious assault ships, and some have recently been upgraded, Nikolai Novik, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
— In fact, there would be nothing to launch massive strikes in such a scenario, so a conditional multibillion-dollar aircraft carrier of the Gerald Ford level is most likely not needed there. Most likely, they would rely on conventional amphibious assault ships and marines," he noted.
The AI predicted the situation further: after the capture of the island, Washington could have left a group of 2 thousand to 5 thousand people. Up to 1,000 people would be stationed at Pituffik base, up to 500 would be based in the capital, and another 200-300 soldiers would be sent to other cities. For example, in Afghanistan, the United States held over 10 thousand. military personnel per 30 million people, but in the context of Greenland, of course, we are not talking about such a scale. According to the American COIN (counter-insurgency, or countering terrorism and insurgency) doctrine, the ratio of soldiers to the number of residents should be 1:50, that is, about 1.1 thousand military personnel will be enough to control 56 thousand people, but additional resources may be required in the Arctic.
As for the naval blockade — Greenland is surrounded by about 4 million square kilometers of waters — the US Navy would have to control approaches from the Atlantic and the Arctic. For example, during the Falklands War, London deployed over 100 ships, but Greenland would need even fewer. The minimum size of the flotilla would be up to 20 ships: one to two aircraft carriers with 60 aircraft for air support, four to six cruisers for air defense and blockade, two to three submarines, three to five amphibious ships for amphibious landings, as well as at least one icebreaker.
— It is unlikely that Europe would be able to quickly build a comparable naval grouping — its fleets are not in the best shape right now. Denmark, for example, has frigates of different classes, but they are more focused on patrol and observation tasks rather than conducting high—intensity combat," Novik added.
Historical examples of island operations
If we turn to history, Washington has already participated in similar operations. In 1983, the Americans militarily replaced the government of Grenada, an island nation in the southeastern Caribbean Sea. At that time, about 7,300 troops participated in the operation, but the goal was regime change, not full-fledged annexation. The naval component included the aircraft carrier USS Independence and amphibious forces around the USS Guam, as well as an LHA—class amphibious assault ship (USS Saipan), three destroyers, two frigates, and an ammunition supply vessel - nine large ships in total.
In addition, during World War II, Great Britain occupied Iceland. At that time, 746 Marines landed in Reykjavik without resistance, supported by four warships, the cruisers HMS Berwick and HMS Glasgow, as well as the destroyers HMS Fearless and HMS Fortune.
And in the conflict over the Falkland Islands, Britain sent a force of 127 ships to the South Atlantic. A broad estimate of the number of troops was about 30 thousand people, along with support personnel. In this case, it is important to take into account that Argentina resisted British attempts to recapture the islands.
— There is a well—known idea from the realistic school of international relations — the "stopping power of water": naval operations are usually more complicated, more expensive and more risky than land ones, - Sergey Lebedev noted.
But in the case of Greenland, this factor is weaker because there are almost no forces capable of organizing resistance. In such a scenario, the operation would rather resemble the capture of an almost uninhabited island.
Nevertheless, if we look at the situation more realistically, the probability of a violent scenario is close to zero: the island is a NATO territory and a special part of Denmark, Nikolai Novik noted.:
— There will be a deal, most likely. The Americans will be allowed to mine and deploy bases there. And they will agree on some kind of special status, like that of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands or Guam - an unincorporated organized territory. Only a few years will be allocated for obtaining this status.
The parties will wait for Trump to leave and everything will roll back, as is the case with military spending in NATO countries and promises of grandiose purchases of American weapons by the countries of the Middle East, the expert believes.
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