Business scramble: Global trade growth will slow down by almost half in 2026

Global trade in 2026 will increase significantly more slowly than before, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Its growth will be about 2-2.2% against 3.8-4.1% in 2025. Exactly one year has passed since the inauguration of Donald Trump, during which time he imposed duties against about 185 states. Among the largest are China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico. Trade truces have been concluded with China and the EU, but they may collapse due to the latest announced tariffs. At the same time, the trade turnover between Russia and the United States increased — in just 10 months of last year it reached $4 billion, although for the whole of 2024 it amounted to $3.5 billion. How trade with Russia will change in 2026 and what will happen to the global economy - in the Izvestia article.

How global trade is changing in 2026

Global trade is likely to grow by only 2-2.2% in 2026, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. In 2025, this figure was almost twice as high — the UN estimated it at 3.8%, and the IMF at 4.1%.

According to the UN report "World Economic Situation and Prospects," the effect on global trade from tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump will appear only in 2026.

It is precisely because of Trump's duties that the figure will increase this year to only 2.2-2.5%, says Olga Gogaladze, an economist and expert on financial markets. A similar assessment was given by the financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. And independent expert Andrey Barkhota admitted that trade could grow by only 2%.

At the same time, some experts expect a more confident increase — Kirill Seleznev, an expert on the Garda Capital stock market, predicts 2.5%.

Global trade in 2025 showed greater resistance to the increase in US tariffs than expected, said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. This was facilitated by advanced purchases of goods in the United States before the imposition of duties, active business investments in artificial intelligence technologies, as well as a rather extended timeframe for the introduction of new tariffs, which allowed companies to adapt, the expert added.

At the same time, new tariffs announced in January 2026 will further restrain growth: 25% for countries trading with Iran, as well as 25% for advanced chips, says Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. In addition, the position of the US Supreme Court, which has been considering the legality of such measures for more than a month, adds to the uncertainty.

However, global trade will not go into negative territory, it will be supported by the steady growth of the service sector and the development of artificial intelligence, he added.

US economic policy under Trump

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was inaugurated for a second presidential term. Even after the elections in November 2024, he repeatedly announced duties against partners, but he took decisive action only in April, when he introduced tariffs against 185 countries. Later, he repeatedly froze them, and as a result of trade deals, rates for some states were lowered. For example, for Japan, they decreased from 25% to 15%, and for Indonesia from 32% to 19%.

Trump has concluded a trade truce with the European Union. He agreed to reduce tariffs from 30% to 15%, and in return, the EU promised to abandon Russian raw materials and annually purchase $250 billion worth of energy from the United States for three years.

Duties against China increased to 145% during the year, but later the countries also concluded a trade truce and stopped tariffs by 10% until November 2026.

Despite agreements with a number of countries, there is still a risk that all agreements will be violated. Thus, China is one of Iran's key business partners, so the announced duties (against all states that trade with Tehran) directly affect Beijing, Igor Rastorguev noted. In addition, the latest news about tariffs against European countries that do not support the accession of Greenland to the United States entails retaliatory measures and violation of agreements, said Yuri Ichkitidze, macroeconomist at Freedom Finance Global. In other words, trading conditions do not look stable, so new episodes of tariff wars cannot be ruled out, said Olga Belenkaya from Finam.

Trump's goal was to "make America great again" — that is, to strengthen the country's position through tariffs and encourage companies to return to the United States, Daria Sokolan, Deputy Dean for International Affairs at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics, recalled. However, there was no mass transfer of business to the United States in 2025: enterprises did not actively move production facilities or open new offices there. And many states have started looking for alternative routes and ways to circumvent the restrictions, she explained.

In addition, for the American economy, the effect was largely expressed in an increase in the cost of raw materials and components, which is eventually shifted to end users and exerts inflationary pressure, said Adam Abdulatipov, senior analyst at BCS World Investments. At the same time, individual industries and companies — primarily those focused on the domestic market — have benefited from increased protectionism.

What will U.S. trade with Russia look like in 2026

By the end of 2024, the mutual trade turnover between Russia and the United States amounted to $3.5 billion, the lowest figure since 1992. However, after Donald Trump's re-election, it grew by a quarter in just 10 months of 2025, to $3.9 billion. Over the past year, Moscow and Washington have managed to improve relations somewhat. In general, the overall pressure that was in 2022-2023 has decreased, said Adam Abdulatipov from BCS World of Investments.

Nevertheless, the situation has not been without aggravation — in October, the United States imposed sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft. And in January 2026, the American leader once again threatened punitive duties of up to 500% for countries that continue to import crude oil from Russia (among them India, China and Brazil). This is blocking an active increase in Russian-American trade this year, Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets believes.

— In fact, trade is supported only by US imports from Russia of fertilizers, uranium and rare earth metals, resources without which the American industry cannot function. The paradox is that even against the backdrop of acute political confrontation, the United States continues to purchase critically important products. At the same time, the volume of such trade is likely to remain small until the situation around Ukraine is resolved," the expert explained.

According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the volume of trade between the two countries in 2026 will not exceed $ 6 billion.