Angle of decline: the yield on short deposits has decreased significantly

Russian banks sharply lowered deposit rates in January. The maximum yield on 90-day deposits currently does not exceed 14.86%. Izvestia investigated why deposit rates are falling and how effective a deposit is as a financial instrument.

That's what the Central Bank decided.

A key rate of 16% has been in effect in Russia since December 19. At the same time, the most profitable deposits exceeded 15% per annum — up to 15.51%. But as of January 19, this figure fell to 14.86% per annum for deposit products for a period of three months. The rate is calculated based on the products of banks from the top 20 that can be opened in the amount of 100 thousand rubles.

The rates on longer—term deposits are even lower: 14.17% per annum for six months, 13.08% for a year. The maximum percentage for products from the top 20 is up to 18% per annum, subject to a number of conditions (new customers, registration of additional products, etc.). The average term deposit rate for 1.5 years does not exceed 11.43%, for two years — 11.16%, for three years — 10.63% (a decrease of 0.28 percentage points, 0.24 percentage points and 0.25 percentage points, respectively).

Why are the rates falling?

Most of the experts surveyed consider the reduction in deposit rates to be an objective process caused by the slowdown in inflation and the easing of monetary policy conditions by the Bank of Russia.

"By the end of 2025, the consumer price index increased by 5.6%, which turned out to be lower than most forecasts and was primarily a result of the tough and consistent policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation," explains Sergey Drobyshevsky, chief researcher at the Gaidar Institute.

Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, attributes the decrease in deposit rates in recent weeks to the fact that banks were playing off the Bank of Russia's December decision to lower the key rate.

Pleasant exceptions

The reduction in rates is of a general banking nature, but profitable offers will appear on the market, Yulia Makarenko, Deputy director of the Banking Development Institute, is sure.

— People are always looking for profitable offers, and massive transfers of deposits between banks are almost inevitable. In the competition for a client, credit institutions are likely to form profitable products — for example, ultra-short, for 1-2 months. This is especially true for those banks that, after another round of monetary easing, will experience a rush of applications for lending to businesses and individuals. And also for niche banks (like "their" marketplace banks). Raising funds for short deposits will be a way for them to retain liquidity, especially in an online format, in order to reduce the burden on operational offices," she says.

The opposite is also true, Makarenko believes. Banks that will not actively attract customers for loans will keep deposit offers low relative to other levels.

The ruble is in demand

Ruble-denominated instruments are still attractive to Russians, says Alexander Schneiderman, head of Sales and Customer Support at Alfa-Forex.

— Even taking into account the gradual easing of the monetary exchange rate, profitability significantly exceeds inflation. At the same time, investors are protected from currency risks, which is important given the current tense geopolitical situation and the risks of sanctions," he says.

The beginning of the year turned out to be stable for the ruble — the ruble continues to strengthen its position, staying in the range of 76-81 rubles per dollar, the expert continues.

— The Ministry of Finance has decided to increase sales of foreign currency and gold from gold and foreign exchange reserves, which also supports the Russian currency. As a result, ruble-denominated instruments are perceived by the market as reliable. At the same time, the projected increase in inflation at the beginning of the year will limit the Bank of Russia's ability to significantly ease monetary conditions at its February meeting.

Key rate forecast

The surge in inflation in the first decade of January is a temporary and seasonal phenomenon, caused, among other things, by an increase in the VAT rate to 22%, the majority of respondents to the publication are convinced.

— Therefore, it is expected that positive developments will occur at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on February 13, 2026 — the rate may be reduced to 15-15.5%. This means that all other rates in the economy should go down," Sergei Drobyshevsky believes.

Igor Dodonov is arguing with the expert in the forecasts of the results of the next meeting of the financial regulator in February.

— In my opinion, the Bank of Russia will still pause in reducing the key rate, as it will want to make sure that the noticeable increase in inflation in the country at the beginning of this year is a temporary phenomenon. Accordingly, deposit rates may stabilize for some period," he suggests.

According to the expert, the Bank of Russia will continue to ease monetary policy in 2026, and by the end of the year the key rate will drop to around 12-13%. Accordingly, deposit rates will drop.

Vladimir Eremkin, a senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy, also expects a further cautious reduction in the key rate to 12% by the end of the year.

If not deposits, then what

The surveyed respondents are unanimous in their opinion that deposits remain the most attractive savings tool for the population, as the yield covers official inflation.

"At rates of more than 10% per annum, deposits in the risk—return ratio obviously benefit both stocks and bonds," comments Sergey Drobyshevsky.

Dodonov also considers deposits to be an important financial instrument for preserving and increasing capital for conservative investors.

"More advanced investors may consider buying OFZs and bonds from leading Russian issuers with a fixed coupon, which often offer higher yields than deposits, especially for a long time, and should benefit from further easing of monetary policy in the country," he argues.

According to the analyst, investments in Russian stocks can potentially provide significantly higher returns.

"But we must clearly realize that the risks here are incomparably higher,— warns Dodonov.

Among the risks of stocks and bonds in the context of the Russian market, Vladimir Eremkin notes that the return on investment may be lower than expected.

— For example, due to a decrease in market quotations or a change in the dividend policy of companies, — he sums up.