House pit: overdue loans from developers jumped by a third
Overdue loans from developers increased by 27% in 2025 and reached about 280 billion rubles by the end of the year. At the same time, its share exceeded 5%, follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. Developers have faced financial difficulties amid declining demand for mortgages at high interest rates, which increases the risk of defaults. At the same time, buyers are increasingly complaining about delays in housing commissioning. Whether the quality of new homes may suffer as a result is in the Izvestia article.
The decrease in demand led to an increase in overdue loans to developers
The volume of overdue loans to legal entities and sole proprietors issued for construction reached 279.3 billion rubles in November last year. This is 27% more than a year earlier, according to the Central Bank's data, which was studied by Izvestia. Against this background, the total volume of such loans increased by only 10%. This means that the overall debt quality is deteriorating.
The total amount of construction loans reached about 5.2 trillion rubles at the beginning of November. At the same time, the share of delays in it has already increased to 5.4%, according to the Central Bank.
The deterioration of payment discipline is due to several factors at once, explained Alexander Butrimov, General Director of the Standard design bureau. The increase in the key rate to 21% by the end of 2024 has dramatically increased the cost of loans for developers and at the same time cooled demand for new housing. Because of this, the cash flow from sales has decreased, from which companies pay interest and repay the principal debt.
The falling mortgage demand is putting additional pressure on the market. Banks' market rates reach up to 20%, and preferential programs are available to a limited number of buyers, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
In 2024, the massive 8% mortgage program was abolished, and the family mortgage was made available only to families with a child under six or several minor children. At the same time, in 2026, the authorities are discussing further tightening of conditions.: The 6% rate can be maintained only for families with two children, and for couples with one child it can be increased to 10%.
The decline in demand is already affecting the financial performance of the industry. In the first 11 months of 2025, banks issued about 21% fewer loans to developers than a year earlier, amounting to about 3.58 trillion rubles, according to Frank RG data. Developers' revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 6.7%, while sales fell by 18%, the analytical service reported earlier. BnMAP.pro .
In parallel, developers faced rising costs. In some periods, cement, rebar and tiles became more expensive, logistics costs and salaries increased, and margins on new construction lines shrank, Vladimir Chernov noted. In addition, the companies had a different margin of safety: some projects were launched based on more optimistic sales forecasts, which were not justified in the conditions of expensive mortgages.
Does an increase in delinquency create default risks
The growth of overdue debts increases the risks for the real estate market, but so far we are talking about a tense state rather than a full-scale crisis, says Alexander Butrimov from the Standard design bureau. According to him, the market is being held due to the accumulated safety margin and project financing mechanisms.
Already, banks have become more cautious in working with developers and reviewing financing models, increasing demands on borrowers, the expert added. This makes it more difficult to launch new projects and increases the pressure on companies with high debt loads.
In general, the financial situation of the real estate market remains relatively stable, although individual players are indeed faced with rising costs and overdue debts, said Kristina Gudym, analyst at Finam Financial Group. According to her, during the year, cases of temporary difficulties for individual companies were discussed, but the market did not see a massive surge in bankruptcies.
Back in August 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin reported that about 20% of developers in Russia are at risk of bankruptcy. He explained that the deadlines for commissioning had been postponed for 19% of projects, and it was these developers who were at risk.
"However, there is no critical situation in the construction sector yet," concluded Sergey Zaitsev, Sales Director of the federal company Floors.
Reducing the key interest rate may ease the situation in the future. If the cost of borrowing starts to decrease, loan conditions for developers will improve, which can slow down the growth of delinquencies, Kristina Gudym concluded.
How will the increase in arrears affect the delivery dates and quality of housing
The financial problems of developers almost inevitably affect the quality of housing, warned Alexander Butrimov. Companies are starting to save on materials, engineering solutions, quality control, and contractors, which is already evident in the increase in defect complaints. According to him, technical solutions are being simplified, decoration and public spaces are becoming cheaper — and this trend is noticeable in all regions.
Quality problems are also confirmed by statistics. According to an Urban Grade survey, 93% of new settlers in mass housing faced problems.: 72% complained of defective windows, 37% — of crooked walls and floors, 35% — of poor ventilation, 22% — of leaks, 20% — of problems with doors and 10% — with electrics.
Delays in the delivery of facilities are also widespread. At the end of 2025, buyers of apartments in the projects of the Aeroplane Group in Moscow and the Moscow region complained about deadlines and the inability to move into the residential complexes Pyatnitsky Luga, Alkhimovo and Ostafevo. The houses were formally put into operation, but the keys were not handed over to the shareholders for months, and defects were found in the apartments. Other developers have had similar problems. For example, the deadlines for housing in Moscow's Fairy Forest residential complex have been shifting for several years in a row. Izvestia sent a request to these developers.
— The problem of stopping and delaying construction projects in 2025 is no longer a point problem, but a systemic one. This does not mean a total collapse of the industry, but for many shareholders, postponement has become the new norm," emphasized Alexander Butrimov.
According to the estimates of the Ministry of Construction, the commissioning dates have been postponed for about 30% of the facilities under construction, Vladimir Chernov recalled. More often we are talking about time shifts, rather than a complete freeze, but the connection with the financial situation of developers is direct.: The higher the debt burden and delinquency and the weaker the sales, the greater the incentive to stretch work schedules.
"Individual construction projects are put on pause until financial conditions stabilize, but in most cases these projects are not completely closed, but later resumed," said Vadim Sapunov, founder of Gosvector.
An additional factor was the moratorium on the collection of fines from developers for failure to deliver houses. It was introduced to support the industry, but in fact deprived equity holders of leverage over developers. In 2026, the delay in the payment of previously accrued sanctions remains, but developers will have to pay new penalties.
This measure is primarily aimed at supporting developers during a difficult period for them, summed up Vladimir Chernov. But this is happening at the expense of home buyers — for them, the exemptions that were introduced earlier mean weaker protection of their interests.
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