Lackluster advice: Why a full settlement in Gaza may stall

The creation of a US-led Peace Council in Gaza could upset the balance of power in the exclave. As a result, the resolution of the Palestinian crisis will be delayed, as the technocrat government in Gaza will have to check all its actions against an artificially created institution. The council will not include all countries that have close ties with major players in the region. In particular, we are talking about Iran or Russia, whose mediation services have repeatedly helped to avoid escalation in the region. Donald Trump, the main ideologist of the project, is optimistic, and believes that he is bringing the conflict closer to a settlement on favorable terms for the United States.

A new stage of the Gas agreement

Initially, it was assumed that the second stage would begin no earlier than March 2026, since the parties did not fully fulfill the conditions of the first (including the prisoner exchange). Nevertheless, the United States decided to be proactive. "We have officially started the next stage of the 20—point Gaza peace plan," Donald Trump wrote on the Truth Social network.

The dismantling and replacement of the current institutions of self-government is considered to be the key points of the current stage of the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. It is assumed that the main body will be the National Committee for the Management of Gaza, which will include reputable Palestinian technocrats, mainly representatives of the Palestinian National Authority (PA). Ali Shaat (PNA) should become the head of the structure. There is no question of including Hamas and its allied groups in the committee, although representatives of the movement expect to retain the "right to vote" in the post-war exclave.

Despite the fact that the committee has been promised "sovereignty in decisions," the activities of its members will be controlled by a higher authority, the Peace Council, whose composition has not been disclosed. It is only known that Trump will personally lead the regulator. It is also reported that the Council intends to include delegates from Germany, France, Italy, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt. An invitation from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is also likely.

At the same time, it is not clear what role the council will play in the post-war Gaza Strip, and how broad its powers will be. However, given Trump's ambitious plans to turn the exclave into a resort area, it can be assumed that the hierarchy will be built according to the scheme of the principality of Andorra (where powers are distributed between local authorities and foreign princes-co—rulers) - but with a large shift towards external forces. As Ivan Bocharov, the INF program manager, noted in an interview with Izvestia, such a clear limitation of the powers of the Palestinian authorities in the long term poses a threat to the stability of the primary management structures.

— The existence of such an institution as the Peace Council will not allow the government of technocrats to have full power on earth. And, most likely, they will be forced to constantly coordinate their decisions with a higher authority, which will not benefit their authority," the expert emphasized.

These fears are not without reason, especially in light of the fact that in 2007 the PNA lost control of the exclave, including due to the erosion of local governance structures in contrast to Hamas.

The contradictions between Israel and Hamas remain

Israel and Hamas welcomed the new phase of the settlement. Moreover, the Palestinian side has demonstrated unexpected flexibility. Hamas is not only ready to give up control of the Gaza Strip in favor of technocrats, but also confirmed plans for disarmament — subject to guarantees from Washington. This includes preventing the "creeping advance" of Israeli forces beyond the demarcation line.

Israel reacted with restraint, noting that the completion of the first stage was delayed by the Palestinian side. In particular, Hamas has not returned the body of Ran Gvili, the last of the hostages killed in Gaza. At the same time, even in the case of the transfer of Gvili's body, the settlement will receive a weak impulse. As Ivan Bocharov notes, the issue of the sequence of actions to disarm Hamas is in limbo — and it is much more acute for the parties.

"We need to take into account that Israel may have its own vision of the situation, and it may not withdraw troops from certain areas of the Gaza Strip until Hamas is completely disarmed," the expert warns.

To eliminate the risk of clashes, Trump proposed the deployment of a stabilization force in Gaza with a UN peacekeeping mandate. However, due to the disagreement of the Israelis, this decision was suspended, stalling the implementation of other points of the second stage.

However, the deal is still in Washington's favor. As political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev points out, due to the intensification in the Gaza Strip, Trump is increasing his domestic political capital.

"The consolidation of the United States' peacemaking image seems to be a beneficial lever of influence on the American audience, which is currently noticeably polarized due to the ambiguity of the country's leadership's actions both on the foreign and domestic political track," he believes.

The question remains whether Trump is ready to "share the glory" with other international authorities. And the answer to it is rather negative so far. Despite the invitation to the council of foreign players, the Republican de facto gathered only close allies. Neither Iran, which has close ties with Hamas, nor Russia and China (which have played a mediating role in the dialogue between the Palestinian factions and Israel) have received invitations. But the Israeli side has gained a lobby within the council (represented by Germany), which creates risks of a gradual tilt of the council towards the interests of the Jewish state.

Of course, it is not only the Americans who are working to stabilize the Gaza Strip. For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin held telephone conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian. Although Moscow's efforts here are more aimed at preventing new tensions between Tehran and Israel, the Palestinian issue occupies an important place in the negotiations as one of the possible triggers of confrontation. Through such mediation, Moscow also contributes to improving the overall effectiveness of the settlement, but acting as an equidistant force and without focusing on an attempt to enhance its own image in the international arena.