Inflatable stage: what are the dangers of the new schemes of Ukraine's integration into the EU

Any new formats of inclusion in the EU should preserve the principle of "merit-based enlargement" and not blur the line between membership and something else, MEP Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia. Earlier, the Financial Times reported that the European Commission is working on a simplified model for Ukraine — accelerated rapprochement with the EU with partial access to the benefits of the union, but without full participation in decision-making. The scheme is already alarming a number of capitals and candidate countries. The current procedure for joining the EU does not provide for anything like this, and an attempt to circumvent this risks consolidating the division into "first-class" and "second-class" within the union, experts believe.

The European Union is preparing simplified membership of Ukraine in the EU

The European Union does not abandon attempts to accelerate Ukraine's accession to the union. This time, the European Commission is working on a mechanism for the so-called "simplified membership" (membership—lite), a two-tier model that should accelerate Kiev's rapprochement with the EU, the Financial Times newspaper reported.

Photo: Global Look Press/Philipp von Ditfurth

European officials want to give Ukraine partial access to the key benefits of unification, in particular, to the elements of the single market and development tools. The publication emphasized that the idea was coldly received in a number of European capitals. In addition, several candidate countries perceive it as a risk of a precedent of "second-class membership", as well as as a potential factor of division within the EU.

Discussions intensified against the background of the peace agreement on Ukraine, in the November version of which Kiev was to receive short-term preferential access to the European market while considering joining the EU. At the same time, the next version of the peace agreement already included a specific "political target" — Ukraine's accession to the EU by January 1, 2027. According to media reports, this document was discussed by Washington and Kiev with the support of Brussels.

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It was the link to 2027, according to FT, that became one of the factors under which the idea of a two-tier integration model began to be worked out in Brussels. This should make the promise of accelerated rapprochement with the EU at least somehow compatible with real enlargement procedures.

First of all, it is important that any discussions on new forms of integration fully respect the principle of "merit-based enlargement," MEP Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia. It has been at the heart of EU policy for decades and is key to maintaining the trust of all candidate countries.

Photo: Global Look Press/Jonas Roosens

— As for the legal aspect, much will depend on the final form and scale of such a model. Certain options for deeper sectoral integration or phased access to the EU could be implemented within the framework of the current legal framework, provided that they are compatible with the association agreements and do not blur the distinction between membership and non—membership," Zdechowski stressed.

Anyway, any agreement that would fundamentally change institutional rights and obligations, especially voting rights, would require an extremely thorough legal assessment and, possibly, broader political agreement at the EU level, the MEP concluded.

However, legally, if we talk specifically about the accession procedure stipulated in the Lisbon Treaty, there is no "facilitated membership" in the EU, Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted in a conversation with Izvestia. Such potential steps by the European Union will require either the signing of a new founding treaty, which is unlikely under current conditions, or attempts to come up with some kind of workaround mechanism for expanded cooperation with such countries.

— In general, the EU has a whole hierarchy of agreements of different levels and depths with different countries. Therefore, it is quite possible to assume a certain format of partial access to the domestic market, as well as some financial instruments," the expert noted.

Photo: REUTERS/Stringer

At the same time, if such steps are implemented, the integrity of the European Union is unlikely to benefit. The potential institutional division into "first-class" and "second-class" in the EU will make this situation even more obvious, Sergeyev stressed.

— Besides, once again it is worth repeating that today Ukraine is a toxic asset that is unlikely to bring unity to the ranks of the European Union. On the other hand, the image side of the issue forces the EU to look for some formats to continue the epic of membership, since this issue has turned out to be one of the central ones," the expert concluded.

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How is the EU accession procedure going?

At the same time, even if Brussels wants to accelerate Kiev's integration, there are strict legal frameworks in place — EU membership follows a certain procedure. At the moment, it looks like this: the state submits an application, the European Commission prepares an opinion, after which the member states unanimously decide on granting candidate status. Further, if the conditions are met, they will unanimously approve the negotiating framework and hold the first intergovernmental conference.

Then the so-called screening begins. European officials, together with the candidate country, check for each item which laws already comply with the rules of the European Union, and where the legal framework is not yet ready. After that, the EU countries look at whether the pre—defined conditions for starting and completing work in each area have been met, and they unanimously decide where to consider progress sufficient and where not.

When all the issues have been resolved, an agreement on accession is being prepared. It must be approved by the European Parliament, then unanimously approved by the EU countries in the Council, after which the document will be ratified by all EU states and the candidate country itself. Only after that the state becomes a member of the association.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Taras Petrenko

The last country to join the EU was Croatia, which happened on July 1, 2013. If we count the time from applying to joining, it took Zagreb a little more than 10 years: the application for membership was submitted on February 21, 2003. Among the countries that have already become members of the union, Cyprus and Malta took the longest to do so (13 years and 10 months). Finland has traveled this path the fastest — about two years and nine months.

If we talk not about those who have already joined, but about those who have been trying to do it the longest, then Turkey is often cited as an example.: She applied back in 1987 and remains among the candidates. Along with Ankara, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and, in fact, Ukraine are awaiting membership. Kosovo is considered a potential candidate in the EC documents.

If the European Commission's initiative regarding Ukraine is adopted, it may be misunderstood by more economically developed candidates for EU membership. For example, Serbia, as one of the most advanced applicants, risks becoming disillusioned with the declared principles of the EU even before joining, seeing in the new scheme a signal of unequal conditions and blurring of the logic of "expansion on merit."