NABU on the head: why searches at Tymoshenko threaten Zelensky's power

There is a new corruption scandal in Ukraine. NABU and SAP detectives searched the home of Yulia Tymoshenko, a long-serving political figure and leader of the Batkivshchyna party. She has recently entered into a situational alliance with the pro-presidential forces. It is believed that the current proceedings may weaken the position of Vladimir Zelensky. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

What happened

In Ukraine, the anti-corruption authorities NABU and SAP have again taken on prominent political figures. On the evening of January 13, the security forces reported the exposure of an unnamed head of the Verkhovna Rada faction, who bribed deputies from other factions to vote for or against certain bills. It was noted that the case qualifies under Article 369 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, according to which the defendants face up to ten years in prison.

The NABU and SAP publications did not mention the name of the accused, but numerous sources reported that they were talking about the leader of Batkivshchyna, a veteran of Ukrainian politics Yulia Tymoshenko. "She was negotiating with several MPs to transfer or informally join her faction for money. Someone recorded the conversations and passed the materials to the NABU," said one of the rada deputies.

On the afternoon of January 14, Tymoshenko confirmed that the security forces had come to her. According to her, the investigative actions continued all night. "More than thirty heavily armed men, without presenting any documents, actually seized the Batkivshchyna office building and took employees hostage," she said, adding that the security forces acted even worse than Yanukovych's stormtroopers.

Tymoshenko also said that as a result of the visit, her work phones, parliamentary documents and personal savings were taken from her. "I categorically reject all the absurd accusations. It looks like the elections are much closer than they seemed, and someone has decided to start mopping up the competition. This is not the first political order against me. Persecution and terror have been my daily routine for many years," she complained.

Later, NABU and SAP published a recording of a conversation between Tymoshenko and a certain rada deputy. The Batkivshchyna leader speaks almost in a whisper, but her voice is not distorted and is quite recognizable. The conversation is in Russian. Tymoshenko says she will pay $10,000 a month for the parliamentarian to "vote correctly." She promises to send instructions via the Signal messenger. At the end of the video, she is sitting at a table, and the security forces are shifting bundles of dollars in front of her.

What is the reason?

Tymoshenko herself claims that the searches were initiated by her political opponents, who allegedly are preparing for new elections in this way. This version raises some doubts. Firstly, there has been talk of a new electoral campaign in Ukraine for a long time, but there has been no real progress so far. Moreover, on January 14, the Rada once again extended martial law, and Ukrainian legislation prohibits holding elections while maintaining such a status.

Secondly, even if we imagine that an election campaign is really starting in the country, it is unlikely that Tymoshenko and her party will be at the forefront of it. According to opinion polls, the level of trust in the Batkivshchyna leader hovers around 10-15%, but distrust exceeds 80%, which is an anti-record among all Ukrainian politicians. The rating of Tymoshenko's party is about 5%.

A more realistic version is that NABU and SAP, which are controlled from overseas, launched a new attack on Vladimir Zelensky. In the fall, the anti-corruption authorities had already damaged the nerves of his entourage when they released the so-called "Mindich tapes". Of these, it became known about large-scale corruption in Ukraine in the energy and defense sectors, the damage was estimated at at least $ 100 million.

As a result of that trial, the head of the Ministry of Justice, German Galushchenko, and the head of the Ministry of Energy, Svetlana Grinchuk, were dismissed from their posts. At the end of November, Zelensky's closest associate, the head of his office, Andriy Ermak, resigned, who held in his hands the threads of management of Ukrainian domestic politics, including the Verkhovna Rada.

At that moment, many people said that as a result, Vladimir Zelensky could lose all power in the country. However, this did not happen. In the Ukrainian parliament, the first fiddle was played by the head of the Servants of the People faction, David Arakhamia, who was able to mobilize the pro-presidential mono-majority, and also agreed with situational allies, among whom Yulia Tymoshenko began to play an important role.

Back in the summer, Batkivshchyna almost completely voted to reduce the powers of NABU and SAP, then the faction did not support the law on the return of these powers. Tymoshenko said at the time that anti-corruption authorities were ineffective and dependent on foreign citizens. She proposed to abolish the international council that manages these structures, that is, to remove them from subordination to the West.

In the fall, after the scandal with the Mindich films, the rada supported the draft budget for 2026. This vote in many ways emphasized the stability of the current political system. On January 13, Batkivshchyna gave key votes for the resignation of the head of the SBU Vasyl Malyuk. Vladimir Zelensky insisted on this personnel decision, and thanks to Tymoshenko, it was accepted.

It can be assumed that in such circumstances, NABU, SAP, representatives of the West and numerous grant structures behind them decided to strike a new blow in order to weaken Zelensky's control over the Verkhovna Rada. Interestingly, some Ukrainian media reported that searches took place not only at Tymoshenko's, but also at David Arahamia's. The anti-corruption authorities have not officially informed about this, but if the rumors are confirmed, the crisis in the Ukrainian parliament will worsen even more.

What the experts say

Denis Denisov, director of the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, recalls that Tymoshenko has already appeared before the court.

— She was involved in criminal cases in 2001 and 2011, and has already been convicted, so the situation is not new to her. I have no doubt that the bribery of deputies could have taken place, for Ukraine it has been a common practice since the 90s, when the oligarchs bought themselves one or another political force. I think we are in for a high-profile and scandalous trial, but it is unlikely that it will have a serious impact on the Ukrainian political system as a whole. Tymoshenko's electoral prospects are extremely weak, so it is unlikely that her participation or non-participation in hypothetical elections can change anything," he emphasizes.

Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, says that the current searches are surprising.

— Tymoshenko did not say anything about her political ambitions, did not make loud statements, generally behaved quite quietly and calmly. It is clear that she participated in some schemes, but absolutely all Ukrainian politicians participate in them. It's hard to say why she was the victim. In any case, I would not pay much attention to these investigative actions. The searches may remain a separate episode without any continuation," he argues.