On the working salary: who will have the most salary increases in 2026
In 2026, wage growth may slow down by almost half compared to 2025, to 8%, analysts surveyed by the Central Bank predict. At the same time, the increase will be uneven: employers will increasingly rely on narrow and scarce specialists. Above average, salaries for senior IT specialists, software developers, experts in neural networks and cybersecurity, as well as welders and engineers, primarily in the defense industry, are likely to increase, experts interviewed by Izvestia predict. Doctors in private clinics are also expected to grow due to staff shortages, including against the background of mandatory medical school graduates working in public hospitals. Why salaries are being raised more slowly in traditional industries and whether there will be a general shortage of staff is in the Izvestia article.
Who will get a salary increase in 2026
In 2026, nominal salaries will grow by 8.2%, according to analysts interviewed by the Central Bank. At the same time, the dynamics will slow down compared to last year. For comparison: according to the latest data from Rosstat, the average salary in Russia in October 2025 approached 100 thousand rubles, an increase of 14% compared to 2024. Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Labor.
Last year, the business reached the limit of its possibilities in the salary race — a further increase in the wage fund becomes economically unprofitable against the background of rising costs and slowing revenue dynamics. In these conditions, companies are increasingly switching to alternative remuneration formats, said the Deputy CEO of "Work.<url>" by Alexander Veterkov.
This year, the increase in income, according to market expectations, will not be massive, but selective and will primarily affect highly qualified specialists in scarce areas, the press service said. hh.ru . The most noticeable increase is possible among experienced software developers, Data Scientists, financial analysts, product managers and cybersecurity specialists, the company predicts. Also, a significant increase in salaries is expected for welders, highly qualified turners, and long-distance truck drivers.
In 2026, salaries will grow faster than average in strategically important and high-tech industries such as the defense industry, IT (including AI and cybersecurity), and engineering. In these sectors, the increase may amount to 10-20% or more due to the acute shortage of qualified specialists, <url> expects.
However, in the IT market as a whole, salary growth will slow down, including due to the high base of previous years, according to SuperJob. They added that in 2026 it will be only 8-10%. At the same time, the salaries of key IT specialists - architects, DevOps engineers, senior developers and ML engineers — will increase faster, by 12-15%.
Doctors of narrow and high—tech specialties - dentists, surgeons, reproductologists and cosmetologists - will also remain among the highest paid, SuperJob is confident. In commercial medicine, the demand for their services is consistently high, so in 2026 their salaries may increase by 10-12%. In addition, the shortage of personnel in the field will increase due to the mandatory training of graduates of medical schools in the compulsory medical insurance system, the company stressed.
For comparison: according to "Work.<url>", in 2025, salary offers in marketing, advertising and the media increased the most — by 20%. In the service sector, the increase was 19%, in IT and finance — 17% each.
According to Avito Rabota, the art and entertainment sector has become the leader in 2025, growing 1.5 times year-on—year. The same applies in the hotel business, as well as in the transport engineering industry, said Roman Gubanov, Director of Service Development.
Similar trends are observed among working professions. The most noticeable growth was recorded among technological engineers and tanker drivers, as well as among kitchen workers, he added.
According to the data hh.ru In 2025, median salaries rose the most among painters, plasterers, and insurance agents.
— In general, the demand for new professions is increasing — data scientists, AI specialists, neural network training and cybersecurity. On average, their incomes may grow by 10-15% in 2026," said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Who's salaries are going to rise the least
At the same time, wage growth is almost not expected in a number of industries. For example, salaries in the light industry will stagnate due to low profitability and competition with imports, said Alexander Veterkov from <url>.
Restrained dynamics will also be in construction, in the production of building materials, education, healthcare and culture, mainly due to budget constraints, said Dmitry Zemlyansky, director of the IPEI Research Center at the Presidential Academy. At the same time, stratification will increase within industries: for example, in IT, the demand for basic positions is decreasing.
In addition, in sectors where automation is accelerating, salaries may not rise or even decrease, and some staff may be reduced. This primarily concerns warehouse workers, junior office staff and call centers, which are increasingly being replaced by digital solutions and AI, Natalia Milchakova is sure.
It is also possible to reduce revenues in the woodworking and automotive industries due to the situation in the industry markets and sanctions pressure, added Yulia Dolzhenkova, a professor at the Financial University.
What will happen to unemployment in 2026
In 2026, the labor market will continue to shift towards the employer, it is expected in hh.ru . Companies will increase the requirements for candidates, paying more attention to experience, real competencies and efficiency. Instead of actively hiring externally, businesses are increasingly relying on employee retention, training, and internal transitions.
The main trend of the year will be the widening gap between industries and qualifications, according to Alexander Veterkov from "Work.ru". High competition for narrow digital specialists and skilled workers will continue, which will support the growth of their incomes, while the dynamics in traditional sectors will be more modest.
— Record low unemployment — about 2% — hides structural distortions: companies lack not people in general, but specialists with specific skills. Shortages persist in trade, industry, construction, and logistics. At the same time, competition is growing sharply among office staff — there may be several hundred responses per vacancy," said Alexander Veterkov.
The slowdown in wage growth will be associated with a reduction in the overall shortage of staff, an increase in the cost of loans and the desire of businesses to reduce costs. Companies are more actively implementing automation, outsourcing and attracting the self-employed, expanding the functionality of employees without increasing salaries, explained Yulia Dolzhenkova from the Financial University.
The labor market in 2026 will gradually cool down, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. Demographics and a shortage of qualified personnel are supporting the shortage, but the slowdown in the economy and digitalization are reducing tensions. Wage growth may slow down to 8-9%, and unemployment may rise slightly from a historical low.
However, in general, the employment rate in Russia will remain high, according to Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. According to her, unemployment in 2026 is unlikely to exceed 2.5%.
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