There have been mass protests in Iran. What you need to know
The aggravation of discontent in Iran began at the end of December against the background of a sharp drop in the national currency against the dollar and a jump in prices. This led to the resignation of the head of the Central Bank, Mohammad Farzin. However, mass marches began across the country, resulting in the deaths of more than 100 people. The authorities have restricted the Internet and suspended news broadcasts. What the protests can lead to is in the Izvestia article.
Reasons for the protests
• Protests in Iran began on December 28 in the central market of the capital. The first participants in the actions were merchants and students who expressed dissatisfaction with the policy of the authorities against the background of the collapse of the national currency and a sharp rise in the price of goods. Amid the growing crisis, the head of the country's Central Bank, Mohammad Farzin, announced his resignation.
• Over time, the wave of protest activity spread beyond Tehran and affected other regions of the country. Clashes and rallies were recorded in about 180 cities. According to media reports, more than 100 people died, and the number of detainees exceeded 2.3 thousand.
• The actions were accompanied by harsh measures on the part of the state. The Internet was turned off throughout the country, and clashes with security forces were recorded in the capital and regions. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blamed the United States for what was happening.
• The cause of the current crisis has been a protracted economic and political decline. Long-term high inflation, the depreciation of the national currency, the shortage of resources and the destruction of the previous balance between reformists and conservatives have deprived the system of public trust.
• Regional conflicts, preparations for war with Israel in 2025, and the restoration of military capabilities also put an additional burden on the budget, which resulted in cuts in social spending. However, in general, the economic downturn has only become an excuse for people to take to the streets, whereas the root of the problem lies in the systemic crisis. The fact is that sanctions isolation, constant inflation, reduced opportunities for social mobility and the gap between the center and the province have led to societal fatigue from ideology that is not accompanied by increased prosperity.
Interim results
• The current protests in Iran are developing without a common coordinating center. The protests are mostly spontaneous and do not rely on a unified governance structure. The Iranian authorities have serious tools for a forceful response. The Basij formations, which are part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, play a key role. This is a large militia, numbering millions of people, which consists of ideologically motivated volunteers, well-organized and controlled by the IRGC. In contrast, the protesters are acting in a disjointed manner and without a single leadership.
• It is too early to talk about the possible duration of the protests. The previous wave of discontent in 2022-2023 lasted for several months and was suppressed, while the current one lasts only about two weeks, although it is characterized by greater tension. At the same time, Tehran has already announced a significant reduction in the number of protest groups by the evening of January 11. An important feature of current events is the active participation of representatives of small and medium-sized businesses, which is reminiscent of the situation in the late 1970s, when merchants played a significant role in the outcome of the Islamic Revolution.
• The expert community doubts the imminent collapse of power. After all, the country's leadership retains power and political resources, and the society is partially consolidated. We are not talking about an instant collapse of the political system, but about a protracted process of gradual weakening of the authorities, in which outbursts of discontent will be repeated over and over again.
Support and criticism of the protesters
• The son of the last Iranian monarch, who was expelled from the country during the revolution, Reza Pahlavi, who lives in the United States, is trying to influence the situation in Iran. He actively supports the protesters and announced his intention to return to his homeland when the opportunity arises. The decline in public confidence in the authorities led to the fact that the figure of Pahlavi suddenly turned into a symbol of an alternative future. However, due to the fact that he is not in Iran, his influence on the protests is limited.
• The United States supports the Iranian protesters so far only in name. Despite the fact that American leader Donald Trump has not ruled out a military attack on Tehran, the US parliament does not believe that Washington should launch another military operation.
• The United States is interested in strengthening its political and economic positions in the Middle East. At the same time, interest in Iran is not limited to oil and gas: Washington is trying to regain its lost positions in the region.
The European Union has threatened Iran with new sanctions due to the suppression of protests. China, in turn, hopes for a stabilization of the situation in Tehran. At the same time, Beijing opposed any foreign interference in Iran's domestic politics. In general, neither Tehran's opponents nor its partners have expressed a clear desire to influence the crisis.
When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:
● Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, an expert at the Valdai Club;
● Nikolay Sukhov, a leading researcher at the IMEMO RAS Group for the Study of Regional Relations;
● Vladimir Sazhin, Senior Researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
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