The political scientist stated the risk of regional escalation due to the crisis around Iran.

The aggravation of the situation around Iran is complex and combines the internal socio-economic crisis, internal political instability and foreign policy pressure from the United States and Israel. It is the intertwining of these factors that creates the risk of rapid regional escalation and makes a diplomatic settlement almost the only realistic way out. This was announced on January 12 by political analyst Dmitry Brije to Izvestia.

He drew attention to statements by US President Donald Trump that the Iranian side had allegedly requested negotiations that were at the stage of organization. At the same time, the American leader stressed that Washington reserves the right to act before the meeting. Bridge noted that such rhetoric indicates the continuation of the "two-track" strategy, when negotiating signals are combined with continued pressure, including sanctions, cyber measures and information operations.

The reaction of Tehran, according to the political scientist, was extremely harsh.

"Any scenario of a US strike automatically translates the conflict into a regional plane, which creates risks for the security infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and for US facilities in the Middle East. Therefore, the only way out of this situation is diplomacy. Diplomatic channels can help resolve the conflict, as it is always diplomacy that resolves wars and conflicts, including direct negotiations," the expert noted.

He paid a special role to Turkey's position, which publicly calls for diplomatic detente and negotiations between Iran and the United States. According to him, Ankara proceeds from the fact that the protests have real economic reasons, but at the same time they can be used by external players. He called the Turkish signal pragmatic, since a major war near the country's borders carries risks for Turkey itself.

Shifting grip: New US strikes on Iran could lead to war in the region

In response, Tehran may attack American bases in Israel, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

The political scientist stressed that the Iranian leadership still has a limited set of strategies: violent suppression of protests, economic concessions or negotiations to reduce external pressure. At the same time, he considers a combined approach to be the most likely scenario, where negotiations with the United States will become a tool for de-escalation and gaining time for domestic economic steps.

According to the expert's forecast, if a dialogue begins, a "limited deal" aimed at reducing risks and preventing a direct clash looks the most realistic. However, the possibility of a breakdown in negotiations remains, since any major incident — from an attack on American facilities to a large—scale cyber strike - can trigger the conflict to enter a new phase.

"All this will depend on the situation in the Middle East and the further dynamics of events in Iran. The negotiations between the United States and Iran may be the most important event, but their conduct will depend on the further steps and actions of the mediators. Currently, it is known that Amman is the main mediator between Iran and the United States of America," the political scientist concluded.

On January 2, Trump, commenting on the protests that began in Iran, said that Washington was ready to intervene in them if it became known about the killings of peaceful protesters. The IRNA news agency reported on the same day that Iran had sent an appeal to the United Nations (UN) and the UN Security Council (UNSC), in which it condemned the statements of the head of the White House and warned of its readiness to defend itself.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) learned on January 10 that the Trump administration was discussing scenarios for a possible strike on Iran, which would be carried out if necessary. Then it was noted that it was not about the preparation for action itself.

Later, on January 11, the US president said that the US military is currently considering options for influencing Iran. According to him, Washington can respond to the protests in Tehran, including with the use of force, if necessary.

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