Goal number one: The Houthis have threatened Israel with war
The Houthis from the Ansar Allah movement have announced that they will now consider any Israeli presence in the Horn of Africa as their legitimate military target. This was their response to Israel's recognition of Somaliland's independence. Yemeni rebels are seriously concerned that an Israeli military outpost will now appear in Africa, opposite Yemen. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
A springboard for Israel
The leader of the Yemeni Houthis from Ansar Allah, Abdel Malik al-Houthi, said that the movement considers any Israeli presence in the Somaliland region as a military target, as it "represents aggression against Somalia and Yemen and a threat to regional security."
In his opinion, the recognition of Somaliland is a challenge for neighboring Somalia and the whole of Africa, as it also affects Yemen, the Red Sea and the States bordered by it.
"This aggressive step is aimed at creating a foothold in Somalia to influence the [Red Sea] region, as well as to further divide states," he stressed.
On December 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the recognition of Somaliland, and also noted that Israel "plans to immediately strengthen relations with the Republic of Somaliland through extensive cooperation in agriculture, health, technology and economics."
Over 50 countries have criticized Israel's actions. For example, the Saudi Foreign Ministry called Israel's decision "aimed at strengthening unilateral separatist measures that violate international law."
The Turkish Foreign Ministry called Netanyahu's actions "illegal, expansionist and aimed at creating instability both regionally and globally."
The network of agents in Yemen
In 2020, after the establishment of official relations between Israel and the UAE, a country that considered Somaliland as its sphere of influence, the opposition Emirati media started talking about the possibility of Israel deploying military facilities in Somaliland.
The importance of the African coast for Israel has increased especially since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip in 2023, when the Houthis began launching combat drones and missiles in its direction. It was only by the end of 2025 that the Israeli authorities managed to establish their network of agents in Yemen, as a result of a targeted attack, more than 10 members of the government formed by the Houthis were killed.
The group faced another problem — the Southern Transitional Council (UPC), which supports Abu Dhabi, threatened to take control of the north of the country, where the Houthis are located.
Representatives of the official Yemeni authorities, supported by Riyadh, have already asked Saudi Arabia for help. So now the kingdom's return to the Yemeni military campaign, which has been frozen in recent years, cannot be ruled out.
The UN has already expressed concern about the worsening situation in the region and calls on the parties to de-escalate and engage in dialogue. However, so far the atmosphere only continues to heat up.
Kamran Hasanov, a senior lecturer at RUDN University, Doctor of Political Science at the University of Salzburg, explained in a conversation with Izvestia that Israel pursues two main goals in the current situation — to contain the "Axis of Resistance", as well as Turkey, which has the largest military base abroad in Somalia since 2024, consisting of 2.5 thousand people.
— From Somaliland, Israel will oppose both Iran and Turkey. And it is also unclear which of the two threats in the MOSSAD and the IDF is perceived as the more dangerous," the political scientist believes.
Against Turkey and Iran
Somalia is a divided state, where everyone has their own interests, Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia.
— In addition, information is now being received about the conflict between the Emirates and Saudi Arabia in Yemen around the situation with the UPS and the Saudi coalition's night strike on two ships that arrived from the Emirates, which allegedly brought weapons, — said the political scientist.
In his opinion, such patterns are not accidental.
— The reaction of the Houthis is generally a reaction to this whole situation, because Somalia is the opposite side of the Bab—el—Mandeb Strait, the entrance to which is controlled by the Houthis. Somaliland allows you to control the Gulf of Aden and access to the Indian Ocean. Nearby is the Yemeni island of Socotra, which is under the control of UPS and the Emirates and which still has a Chinese presence," the expert said.
The analyst added that the Chinese presence is also in the Djibouti area, which is closer to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis fear the creation of an Israeli outpost opposite them, because it will become a good base for regular airstrikes on their territories.
— In addition, it will allow Israel and the Americans to expand joint operations, since for the United States it will also strengthen its presence in the Horn of Africa. In addition, it will also be possible to block aid from Iran, China, etc. from this territory," the Arabist believes.
According to him, the current situation is much deeper than the relations between Israel and the Houthis.
— Against the background of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, the Arab coalition in Yemen is crumbling, respectively, no one is able to resist Israel there, the Houthis see this too. Perhaps there will be a reformatting now, and if the UPU cannot reach an agreement with the Yemeni government, then, for example, the option of solidarity between the UPU and the Houthis on certain issues is possible," the orientalist believes.
Krylov calls Israel's ambitions quite serious, but at the same time believes that they are unlikely to be aimed at Somalia and Somaliland, rather at creating a real springboard for military and political control over the Gulf of Aden.
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