The roof will come up: what awaits the real estate market in 2026
The forecast for the real estate market for 2026, according to experts, is cautiously optimistic. It is based on the expectation of a smooth reduction in the key rate, which will gradually restore demand. Some of the buyers will switch to the secondary market after the cooling period, but new buildings will also get their share. In a negative scenario, the market will face a decrease in consumer activity, however, regardless of the development of events, prices per square meter will continue to rise. See the Izvestia article about what else to expect from the housing market in 2026.
What changes can we expect in 2026
The volume of multi-family housing under construction in Russia by the end of 2025 was 7 million square meters. m is more than at the beginning, the press service of the Ministry of Construction told Izvestia. It now stands at 121 million square meters.
"Taking into account non—residential premises, 201 million square meters are in operation," the department added.
The overall trend for 2026 remains positive and promises a transition to a new stage of market development, experts from the M2 real estate ecosystem told Izvestia.
"The key driver will be the expected reduction in the key rate of the Bank of Russia, which, according to most analysts, will be gradual but steady," they noted. — This will create prerequisites for cheaper market mortgage programs after a long period of high borrowing costs.
It is predicted that by the end of 2026, the volume of mortgages issued may grow to 5.7 trillion rubles. It will be ensured by the gradual normalization of demand for market programs, which will begin to take over some of the activity from concessional loans after their possible tightening or closure.
In 2026, the dynamics of the real estate market will depend on which of the Bank of Russia's scenarios is being implemented: basic, positive or negative, said Valeria Tsyganok, Head of Analytics at Precisely Group.
Under the baseline scenario, if the key rate is 13-15%, a moderate improvement in the economic situation and a gradual decrease in inflation are expected. In such conditions, the demand for new buildings can grow by about 10-12% compared to the current year due to a partial return of pent-up demand and a small amount of mortgage support.
"If the economy follows a positive scenario and the key rate drops to 10-10.5%, the industry may show a much stronger recovery," the expert said. — Market mortgages will become more affordable, which will significantly expand the circle of buyers. With this forecast, demand for new buildings could grow by up to 20% year on year.
What will affect the primary housing market
In a negative scenario, when the key interest rate remains high, the market will face a decrease in consumer activity, Valeria Tsyganok added. Demand may drop by 8-10% relative to current figures, because market mortgages will remain virtually unavailable.
"At the same time, starting from February 1, 2026, the conditions for preferential mortgages will be tightened, which will further limit the range of potential buyers," she recalled. — Formally, the program will remain in place, but the new rules will make it less accessible, and some customers who were counting on preferential loans will not be able to use them. As a result, the high cost of the loan will repel both family and investment buyers.
At the same time, regardless of the scenario, prices per square meter will continue to rise. The cost of construction is getting higher due to the rising cost of materials, labor, logistics, and a growing set of infrastructure and project quality requirements.
But so far, the forecast for 2026 can be described as cautiously optimistic, says Svetlana Pinigina, founder of Pinigina Consulting. It is based on the expectation of a smooth reduction in the key rate, which will contribute to a gradual recovery in demand. Some of the buyers will switch to the secondary market after the cooling period, but new buildings will also get their share.
"If the package of anti—crisis measures planned for developers for 2026 is approved, we do not expect a sharp deterioration in the situation in the construction industry," the expert believes. — In general, the situation will remain approximately the same, and at the same time, we do not expect something enormously new, for example, the introduction of new massive preferential programs. The support will be aimed at the survival of developers rather than ensuring their high profitability.
The key trend will be the diversification of preferential mortgage programs: the focus will shift from mass products (family and IT mortgages) to support other categories, such as large families and the standard segment.
Comfort and business classes will remain in the area of increased attention of developers.
— In parallel, real estate prices will continue to rise, which in 2026-2027, under a positive scenario, may amount to at least 10%, and under more negative scenarios it will be more aggressive — about 20-30%, — said Svetlana Pinigina. — This increase will be due not only to inflation and a revival in demand, but also to a structural factor — the transition to VAT, which will cause an increase in the cost of work and materials from suppliers.
According to Denis Zhalnin, CEO of the People development company, demand in the primary market may decrease by 10-12% in the first half of 2026, and the situation may be slightly better in the second half if the mortgage market drops to 13-14%.
— Then those buyers who do not have the opportunity to purchase a family mortgage will come to the primary housing market, plus money from bank deposits will begin to return to real estate, — he said. — This will support demand and prices.
What to expect in the secondary market and residential housing
The secondary housing market has accumulated a huge amount of pent—up demand, and this is confirmed by a sharp increase in consumer activity after the summer reduction in the key interest rate, said Sergey Zaitsev, sales Director of the federal company Floors.
— The market is waiting. And as soon as there is a more confident easing of monetary policy, Russians will begin to actively purchase those properties that are being sold at a discount," he said. — According to our observations, every decrease in mortgage rates by 1% increases consumer activity by 10-12%. Therefore, increasing the availability of mortgages can greatly heat up demand in the secondary market next year and provoke price increases.
The secondary market will begin to reduce the price gap with housing under construction. If the Central Bank's optimistic forecasts regarding the key rate for next year come true, the second half of the year may be very active and the volume of mortgage issuance will be comparable to the values of 2025.
"With rates falling below 14-15%, we should expect increased demand in the secondary market and an increase in average prices of up to 12-15% by the end of the year," believes Sergey Zaitsev.
And prices for suburban real estate in the winter of 2026 may become minimal in the medium term against the background of a slowdown in the commissioning of residential housing, stagnation of prices and accumulation of pent-up demand, says Alexander Chernokulsky, director of Zhilfond.
— The suburban real estate market has clearly entered a phase of inertia this year, — said the expert. — Demand is not growing, it is being held back by expensive loans, changes in the conditions of family mortgages and the transition to escrow accounts in residential housing. At the beginning of the year, analysts expected prices to rise at the inflation rate, but even this did not happen: the dynamics turned out to be significantly weaker than expected, and the suburban real estate market reached a price plateau.
According to the expert, with the next reduction in the key rate, the market can quickly move into a recovery phase, which is traditionally followed by an increase in prices for both finished houses and their construction. However, a surge can be expected with the onset of a new active season in the segment — demand traditionally gradually increases in March-April.
How will developers survive
The waiting phase typical for 2025 is coming to an end, and the industry is moving into a period where competitiveness is determined not by the scale of construction, but by management efficiency, product quality and the ability to control costs, said Sergey Goncharov, CEO of Razvitie Group.
"Against this background, there is a growing interest in integrated territorial development (CDT), which is becoming one of the few sources of a high—quality land bank in the face of a dwindling choice of sites," he said. This creates the potential for more thoughtful projects, investments in the digitalization of construction processes and the strengthening of developers' own competencies.
Additionally, the industry will be influenced by global economic trends. Digitalization is becoming a key factor of efficiency: it is not only about design and construction control, but also about the transformation of financial processes, the development of digital financial assets and the emergence of new forms of payments.
"The use of artificial intelligence technologies is no longer an experiment," the expert believes. — In 2026, no large company will be able to remain competitive without the system integration of AI into project management, analytics and operational processes.
In 2026, the priorities will be cost management, optimization of the land bank, expansion of its own construction capacities and the use of modern technologies, including industrial housing construction, Sergei Goncharov believes.
— At the same time, the sales model is being transformed: the role of market mortgages and installments is increasing, and promotion focuses on specific projects, their architecture, engineering features and the level of the environment, — said the expert.
In addition, the lifting of protective moratoriums can trigger the bankruptcy of a number of developers — up to 10-15% of companies are at risk, according to various estimates, Svetlana Pinigina added. This will create additional risks for the quality of housing under construction.
Ilya Kolunov, General Director of Sadovoye Koltso Group, believes that the volume of apartment building commissioning will decrease in Russia next year. According to him, developers began to reduce their activity in launching new projects in the fall of 2022 due to the difficult macroeconomic situation and the peak growth of the key interest rate to 20%.
— A decrease in the volume of commissioned square meters in the segment of apartment buildings will indeed occur, although it will not be significant, — he noted. — Demand will largely depend on the dynamics of the key interest rate and the terms of the family mortgage, which today remains the main financial instrument for buying a home.
Yuri Tsuker, Head of development projects at Kvartal Group, believes that the determining factors in 2026 will be the quality of locations, the level of infrastructure readiness and the demand for service formats, especially in the investment real estate segment.
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