Playing on nerves: why is China conducting large-scale exercises around Taiwan
Tension is growing between Beijing and the United States. First, Washington approved a record arms package for Taiwan, and now China is conducting large—scale military exercises around the island. China makes it clear that in case of further pressure, a blockade of the island is possible. Experts warn that the consequences could be catastrophic for the global economy — factories from Detroit to Shenzhen will be shut down. How real is the risk of a military escalation and under what conditions it can be realized is described in the Izvestia article.
Large-scale maneuvers
"These exercises serve as a serious warning to the separatist forces of Taiwan independence and the forces of external interference," said Shi Yi, a representative of the Eastern Command of the People's Liberation Army of China. He explained that these actions are aimed at protecting national sovereignty and maintaining national unity.
The maneuvers called "Fair Mission 2025" will take place in five waters around Taiwan, as well as in the airspace. The ground, naval and missile forces of the PRC will take part in them. Fighters, bombers and unmanned aerial vehicles will be involved in the exercises.
Judging by the development of events, we are not talking about exercises of a direct military strike on Taiwan, but about the blockade of the island, Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Lomonosov Moscow State University, tells Izvestia. The maneuvers cover almost all directions around Taiwan.
— PLA units are working on blocking the port of Kaohsiung, Taiwan's largest port, including one used by the navy. Anti-submarine exercises were conducted, and bomber strike groups were deployed to simulate precision strikes. China is demonstrating that it is technically fully prepared to establish a blockade of Taiwan," the expert notes.
Taipei takes Beijing's actions seriously. "We strongly condemn the Chinese authorities' disregard for international norms and the use of military pressure to threaten neighboring countries," said Karen Kuo, a spokeswoman for Taiwan's president.
The Defense Ministry also noted that over the past 24 hours, two Chinese military aircraft and 11 ships have been around the island. The Taiwanese military is on high alert to protect the island from a surprise attack.
Retaliatory actions
The current exercises are taking place against the backdrop of worsening relations between China and the United States. The reason was the decision of the administration of US President Donald Trump to approve the sale of an arms package worth $11.1 billion to Taiwan.
Formally, the package has yet to be approved by Congress, but it is already known that it includes HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, Javelin anti-tank missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Thus, the supplies will be the largest not only in terms of cost, but also in terms of the volume of weapons.
Xie Ji-sheng, Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Taiwan, speaks at a press conference on China's military exercises around Taiwan in Taipei.
In response, China imposed sanctions on 10 individuals and 20 American defense companies. The list, in particular, includes the Northrop Grumman Military Industrial Corporation and the Boeing division in St. Louis. Restrictive measures for arms shipments, which, according to Beijing, "undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," came into force on December 26.
But the matter was not limited to sanctions. The Fair Mission 2025 exercises were also a reaction to American military aid to Taiwan, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Moreover, China has repeatedly warned that in the event of an expansion of military support to Taipei, it will respond with adequate measures.
MLRS HIMARS of the Armed Forces of Taiwan during exercises
"The exercises that began today off the coast of Taiwan are not just a military demonstration," Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, tells Izvestia. — This is a qualitatively new level of pressure, and exactly 11 days after Washington approved a record supply of weapons to Taipei. The weapons package includes everything that makes the island an inconvenient target for amphibious operations.
Against this background, predictions appeared in the media about the possible transition of the conflict into a hot phase. According to one version, China may try to use force against Taiwan as early as November 2026. This scenario is possible if the Chinese leadership comes to the conclusion that a peaceful solution to the issue is impossible.
Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Taiwan fire Javelin anti-tank missiles during exercises
Russia has already announced China's support in the event of an armed conflict. "As for the possible escalation of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, the procedure for dealing with such situations is spelled out in the Agreement on Good—Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation signed on July 16, 2001, fundamental to bilateral relations with China," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed.
What the experts say
China's strategy is to reduce the activity of separatist forces in Taiwan and push the parties to negotiate peaceful reunification, which could potentially last for decades, Alexey Maslov believes. At the same time, Beijing makes it clear that it is ready to use military force if necessary.
"A military scenario is possible, for example, in the event of serious provocations from Taiwan," the expert says. — These may be incidents in the air, the use of deployed American weapons, or the appearance of the US military infrastructure on the island. But the key point that forces Beijing to take a tough stance is the so—called "strategic duality." On the one hand, the United States, Japan, and South Korea formally recognize Taiwan as part of China. On the other hand, they continue to provide him with military and political support.
The economy plays a separate role, and it is precisely this that has so far kept the conflict from escalating sharply. Taiwan is of strategic importance to the United States: the island controls about 70% of the global contract chip manufacturing market, and TSMC produces 92% of the most advanced semiconductors, Igor Rastorguev points out. Without these chips, assembly lines from Detroit to Shenzhen, from the automotive industry to refrigerators and smartphones, can stop.
— China itself is also dependent on Taiwanese chips. At the same time, the trade turnover between the parties, which reached $205 billion in 2022, has begun to decline over the past three years. Taiwanese investments in China decreased by 61% in the first 11 months of 2025, as companies shift production to the United States and Southeast Asian countries.
Another deterrent is the close trade ties between Washington and Beijing. The trade turnover between the two countries reached $688.28 billion last year. The American market remains a key one for Chinese exports, and any sharp escalation around Taiwan will inevitably lead to new sanctions, embargoes, and disruption of global supply chains.
"The economy is not the only deterrent, but it is one of the key factors," Rastorguev sums up. — Military and political risks, the reaction of US allies and internal stability in China are also important. So far, Beijing is choosing the path of increasing pressure, demonstrating its willingness to act, but not crossing the line. The current exercises are another step in a long game of nerves, where the cost of a mistake is too high.
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