The situation has become tense: the interests of Turkey and Israel have crossed in Africa

Over 50 countries have condemned Israel's decision to recognize Somaliland's independence. This initiative was most actively criticized in Turkey. The country's Foreign Ministry, together with the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, Somalia, and Djibouti, emphasized support for the unity, sovereignty, and security of Somalia, rejecting any steps that could undermine stability in the State. The opposition in the Turkish Republic also considers the actions of the Israeli authorities to be a threat to the national security of the country. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

An alarm for Turkey

"Israel's statement recognizing the independence of the Somaliland region is yet another example of the illegal actions of the Netanyahu government aimed at creating instability both regionally and globally," the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry called Israel's policy "expansionist," and also promised to "continue to support the people of Somalia."

The former Prime Minister of the Republic of Turkey, and now the head of the Party of the Future, Ahmet Davutoglu, issued a sharp warning to the Turkish authorities. He called Israel's decision a "wake-up call" for Turkey's national security.

In his opinion, this step is based on a strategy to "encircle" the key players in the region: Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

He suggested inviting the Presidents of Somalia and Somaliland to Ankara for direct talks as soon as possible, appointing an experienced diplomat to work in the region, and forming a common position with Cairo and Riyadh to stop Israeli influence in the port of Berbera and holding coordinated talks with the leadership of the United States and Britain.

Subsequently, it became known that the President of Somalia will visit Turkey on Tuesday, December 30.

Through the waves of memory

Relations between Turkey and Israel developed in waves: rapprochement was replaced by confrontation, then gradual normalization resulted in a new round of tension. In 1949, the Republic of Turkey became the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel. At the same time, Ankara, fearing criticism from the Arab states, preferred to hide its active contacts with the Israeli authorities.

In the 90s, economic interests came to the fore. As part of the "strategic partnership," Turkey and Israel have signed agreements on military cooperation and free trade. Ankara began actively buying Israeli military products.

Everything changed with the coming to power of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2002. Ankara began to claim more and more actively to be the defender of all Muslims, while Israel accused it of being friends with Hamas and cooperating with Iran. Erdogan also periodically made anti-Israeli attacks.

In 2010, the incident with the Freedom Flotilla (Mavi Marmara) occurred: the collision led to the death of 10 Turkish activists, and diplomatic relations were severed for several years. Only strong economic ties have helped to maintain cooperation.

The countries tried to establish relations six years later, but then-US President Donald Trump moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing this city as the capital of Israel. Ankara has led a Muslim protest against Washington's actions.

Meanwhile, Israel began to establish relations with Turkey's two enemies, Greece and Cyprus, by launching the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum and signing a document on the construction of a pipeline to transport gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe.

Such steps annoy Ankara. However, despite this, in 2021, the parties attempted to re-normalize relations, and in 2022, the Israeli president flew to Turkey for the first time in 15 years on an official visit. The parties began active cooperation to prevent possible terrorist attacks on Israelis in Turkey, and the authorities of both countries agreed to exchange ambassadors.

However, in October 2023, the parties faced another round of tension. The escalation between Israel and Hamas provoked a sharp reaction from Ankara. Turkey hosts the leaders of Hamas, considering it a political movement. In May 2024, it suspended all trade with Israel.

The Turkish leader constantly blames the Israeli authorities for the deaths of thousands of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, calling their actions genocide.

Many are dissatisfied

British Somaliland existed from 1884 to 1960. The territory of the state occupies a strategically important position, allowing it to control the passage from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

In the 60s, the country declared its independence, and this decision was supported in London. A few months later, Somaliland became part of greater Somalia, along with Italy's former colonies in the Horn of Africa.

In 1988, a civil war broke out in the country, and the state effectively split into several self-governing Territories, including Somaliland.

In 1991, the country declared independence unilaterally and is trying to achieve recognition as a sovereign independent State. At the same time, the international community continues to consider Somaliland a part of Somalia.

In January last year, the self-proclaimed state, together with neighboring Ethiopia, signed a memorandum of understanding. According to the document, in exchange for recognition, Somaliland allows Addis Ababa to establish a military base on its territory, while also providing access to the sea.

The current actions of Israel, which recognized the independence of Somaliland, were criticized by about 50 states. The Saudi Foreign Ministry considered Israel's decision "aimed at strengthening unilateral separatist measures that violate international law."

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said that Israel's presence in Somaliland would be regarded as a security threat, as well as a "military target for our armed forces." According to him, such actions by Israel will be perceived as aggression against Somalia and Yemen, as well as a threat to regional security.

The degree of tension is off the charts

Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that relations between Turkey and Israel deteriorated quite a long time ago as a result of the incident with the Freedom Flotilla.

— Since then, Turkey has made several unsuccessful attempts to normalize relations, but this has not led to any concrete results. The Palestinian issue got in the way, the struggle for regional and even cross-regional influence, or something else," the expert noted.

According to the political scientist, Israel's decision to recognize Somaliland could not meet with support from Turkish colleagues. Moreover, it should be borne in mind that Turkey is quite close to the Arab-Islamic world, which almost unanimously condemned the decision," the expert emphasized.

— Arab countries are afraid of strengthening Israel in the Red Sea and gaining control over the strategic Gulf of Aden. As for Ankara, Turkey has established very close cooperation with the official authorities of Somalia in recent years. That is, bilateral and multilateral contacts with Mogadishu are conducted with enviable regularity," the analyst explained.

The Turkologist added that Ankara supplies weapons there, and the Somali military has been learning new skills from the Turks for a long time.

— In addition, not so long ago there was information that the Turks want to place a full-fledged long-term military base. And as part of their space program, despite the unfavorable seismic activity, they are going to build their first cosmodrome, so the appearance of Israel there was clearly not planned," Sbitneva said.

The political scientist believes that everything that somehow falls within the sphere of Turkey's interests is automatically included in the zone of its national interests, although formally Somaliland has nothing to do with them.

— There is an interesting issue of international law and the real interests of the state. Turkey does not recognize Somaliland, Crimea, Kurdistan and so on. However, for example, it requires recognition of Palestine and Northern Cyprus from the international community," the expert concluded.

Turkologist Yashar Niyazbayev believes that the conflict between Turkey and Israel is escalating against the background of the fact that Ankara maintains its largest foreign military base in Mogadishu, TURKSOM, and is actively investing in the infrastructure of Somalia.

"By entering Somaliland through the mechanisms of the Abraham Accords, Israel is actually creating a competitive center of influence in the strategically important Gulf of Aden. For Turkey, Somalia is not just an ally, but a key economic and military foothold in Africa, the expert believes.

He added that Israel's recognition of Somaliland effectively turns the Horn of Africa into a zone of direct confrontation between the two powers.

"The degree of tension is starting to go through the roof," the specialist concluded.