Collection that occurred: what awaits the Russian car market in 2026
In 2026, the Russian car market may face rising car prices, declining demand, and the departure of a number of companies. According to experts, cars may rise in price by an average of 25% due to an increase in the recycling fee. Against this background, Russians may start buying cars less often, which will primarily affect Chinese manufacturers. Experts do not exclude that brands such as FAW, BAIC, VGV and other smaller players may leave the market. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
How will the car market develop
This year, the Russian car market risks facing rising prices, falling demand and a reduction in the number of companies. The rise in car prices could reach 25%, experts interviewed by Izvestia said.
— In 2026, prices for new cars are likely to increase by 10-25%, depending on the segment and origin of the cars. The increase in cost will be due to an increase in the recycling fee, a change in which will lead to an increase in the price of imported and many localized cars," Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management Management Company, told Izvestia.
The new recycling rules came into force on December 1, 2025. The coefficient by which the base rate is multiplied now depends not only on the volume of the engine and the age of the car, but also on the engine power. The more powerful the machine, the higher the coefficient. On January 1, 2026, the government has planned an annual indexation of the recycling fee by 10-20%, depending on the category of transport.
— For example, domestic cars and localized Chinese ones may rise in price by 7-13%. The cost of the premium segment, cars with a capacity of over 160 hp and those cars that will be supplied via parallel imports, may increase by 20-25%, the analyst believes.
Experts also point to a possible decrease in demand for cars amid stricter conditions for issuing loans, primarily microloans: from April 1, 2026, it will become more difficult to obtain a loan due to a stricter assessment of borrowers' incomes and their debt burden.
"It will become more difficult and expensive for consumers to take out a loan for a car, which, accordingly, will reduce the number of buyers on the market and cool demand for cars in 2026," says Anna Lazakovich, brand manager at Petrovsky Group.
According to the forecast of the analytical agency Autostat for 2026, car sales will be at a level close to 2025, that is, about 1.32–1.34 million units.
— First of all, new cars imported from abroad will become more expensive, localized cars will "catch up" with them, and the latter will increase in the price of the secondary. New foreign cars with a capacity of more than 160 horsepower will become the most inaccessible. The increase in demand for new cars of domestic production will not be so painful," Dmitry Matveev, General Director of the Moy Avtoprokat company, told Izvestia.
Anton Shaparin, President of the National Automobile Union, agrees that car prices are likely to rise in proportion to recycling — by 10-20%, and demand will fall.
Auto expert Peter Bakanov has a different opinion about the impact of indexation of recycling. According to him, the key interest rate, the dollar and yuan exchange rates, as well as regulatory measures by the Russian and Chinese authorities will have an impact on the dynamics of prices and demand.
Which car brands may leave the market
According to Gazprombank Car Leasing, from January to September 2025, there were 638 closures and 513 openings of car dealerships in Russia. The worst performing brands were Bestune (46 closures), DFM (44) and Kaiyi (31). The media also reported on the possible departure of Kaiyi, Skywell, SWM, Haima, VGV, Ora and other Chinese brands. Earlier, Maxim Agadzhanov, Managing Director of Alfa-Leasing Group, spoke about the low number of their sales (less than 20 in six months).
According to Peter Bakanov, brands such as FAW, BAIC, VGV, SWM and other small Chinese car brands really have a great chance of leaving the market.
— When sales amount to a couple of hundred cars, these brands are among the outsiders. We have a trend towards monopolization of the market, when the big players remain, and all the others slowly disperse. Now all the plants' capacities have been allocated to larger brands," the expert told Izvestia.
Anton Shaparin believes that now is the time for Chinese companies to make decisions: to stay in the market and localize or to move back.
— Some small car brands sell too few of their cars and will not localize production for this. They had the opportunity to compensate for previous increases in recycling at the expense of their margin, but, according to them, they will no longer be able to carry this indexation on themselves and will begin to shift it to the consumer. And who needs such a car if it's going to be so much more expensive? — the expert shared his opinion.
Earlier, Svetlana Vinogradova, CEO of Rolf, said that Geely and GAC could leave the Russian market if their models were not localized in the first half of 2026. In response to the statement, GAC announced that it had no plans to leave the Russian market, while Geely refrained from commenting. Izvestia sent inquiries to the car companies.
Dmitry Matveev, CEO of Moy Avtoprokat, sees the situation differently. In his opinion, large companies such as Geely, Chery and Haval will strengthen localization and will not leave the Russian market in order not to lose the benefits of imports.
According to Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, we are not talking about the withdrawal of automakers from the Russian market, but about the curtailment of the weakest brands and distributors that cannot withstand the economics of sales against the background of high borrowing costs and stricter regulation. At the same time, the key drivers of demand in the mass market are LADA, Haval, Belgee and Changan," the expert added.
Chinese export restrictions can add volatility in car supplies and prices on the Russian market, Vladimir Chernov said.
To export cars that have been registered in China for less than 180 days, the exporter will have to provide customs with a letter from the manufacturer of the car indicating the country to which the vehicle will be delivered, as well as information about the availability of "after-sales service outlets" in that country. Otherwise, he will not be given an export license allowing the car to be exported outside of China.
Anna Lazakovich, Brand Manager at Petrovsky Group, believes that this could seriously affect the choice and volume of supplies, since the import of Chinese cars became the basis of supplies to Russia after the departure of many European and Japanese brands.
Auto expert Peter Bakanov believes that there is no reason for concern and the situation with the restriction of Chinese exports will not affect the mass segment.
— Unofficial suppliers are beginning to be squeezed by both Russia and China. It will become more and more difficult for people to work in the shadows, but this will not affect the market," the expert said.
The situation will affect unofficial companies that import some new items or exclusive models, he concluded.
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