Western traps: risks of escalation of the situation around Kosovo are growing

The victory of Albin Kurti's party in the parliamentary elections will consolidate the course of the unrecognized Republic of Kosovo towards a tough confrontation with Serbia, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. At the same time, the European Union actually supported this vector by unfreezing financial tranches for Pristina. The formation of an alliance consisting of Albania, Kosovo and Croatia forces Belgrade to prepare for defense. Against the background of external threats, Serbia is trying to resolve its own internal political crisis through early parliamentary elections.

Results of the parliamentary elections in Kosovo

The end of the year in the Balkans was marked by major political events. Kosovo has held its second parliamentary election this year. According to preliminary calculations, the winner was the Self-Determination party of the Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed republic Albin Kurti, which won almost 50% of the vote.

His main rivals, the Democratic Party and the Democratic Union, received 21% and 14%, respectively. The Alliance for the Future of Kosovo ranks fourth with almost 6%. The turnout was only about 45%.

The last parliamentary elections were held in February, however, none of the parties won an absolute majority then. The legislature was able to elect its chairman only in August, but it was not possible to form a government. As a result, the President of the self-proclaimed Republic of Vyosa Osmani-Sadriu dissolved parliament and called early elections.

Among the Serbian population of the region, the Serbian List party won, according to preliminary data, it will receive all 10 mandates belonging to the minority. In total, 120 deputies sit in the parliament of the unrecognized Kosovo. By the way, the party was allowed to participate in the elections only after the court's decision on December 5. Earlier, representatives of the "Serbian List" regained control of four municipalities in the north of the region following the results of municipal elections.

It is the Serbian issue that has become the main source of tension in the region in recent years. Recall that in 2008, the independence of the Republic of Kosovo was unilaterally proclaimed. Serbia, like Russia and many other countries, did not recognize this decision. However, Belgrade and Pristina are striving to join the EU, and for this, Brussels requires them to normalize relations.

In 2020, in Washington, the parties agreed to normalize economic ties, and in 2023, in Ohrid in North Macedonia, Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic agreed to create an "agreement on the comprehensive normalization of relations." And one of the main conditions was self-government for the Serbian community in northern Kosovo. Serbs are concentrated mainly in three communities — Leposavic, Zvecan and Zubin Potok. The total Serbian population of Kosovo, according to some sources, is about 100,000 people — 5-6% of the total population.

However, the Kurti government instead accelerated the replacement of Serbian license plates with Kosovar ones, banned the circulation of the Serbian currency, the dinar, in northern Kosovo, and closed branches of Serbian banks and representative offices of other organizations there.

In response, the Serbs abandoned a significant part of the municipal authorities in the north of the region, including the police. They also boycotted the municipal elections in 2023, which led to the transfer of control of municipalities inhabited by Serbs to Albanian representatives. The Serbs went out to protest, which ended in mass clashes. The dialogue on the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina was stopped.

In mid-2023, the EU imposed sanctions against the self-proclaimed authorities of Kosovo and stopped providing financial assistance to the republic. And in September of this year, Washington suspended the dialogue with Pristina. Representatives of the Trump administration visited Belgrade and established contacts with President Aleksandar Vucic. Before the elections in Kosovo, Brussels unexpectedly backed down and promised to unblock funding for the Pristina authorities.

Risks of escalation of the situation in Kosovo

The Kurti government's relations with the United States and the EU cannot be called a failure, since this is an element of a mutually recognized game that is not spoken out loud. The United States and the EU benefit from the uncontrollability and radicalism of Albin Kurti, who is implementing the task set in the late 1990s - to completely separate Kosovo from Serbia, Ekaterina Entina, director of the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

— In various ways, they try to return him to the track of common tasks without independent ideas about how they should look like. The leadership of his party in the elections shows that an approach to Kurti has been found and he is likely to behave less radically," the expert stressed.

Self-determination intends to continue dismantling Serbian structures in Kosovo and will demand concessions from Belgrade. The ultimate goal of Pristina, according to Albin Kurti, is to achieve "mutual recognition, at least de facto." This year, Kosovo signed a military cooperation agreement with Albania and Croatia. Belgrade then announced the launch of an arms race in the region.

Parliamentary and presidential elections in the so-called Republic of Kosovo have no impact on the situation in the region. The reason is that these are strictly controlled structures that depend on the interests of external players — not only Western states, but also countries in the Middle East, as well as criminal transnational structures, MGIMO Professor Elena Ponomareva told Izvestia. She recalls that Kosovo is the Balkan core of drug trafficking, militant training, human trafficking, and arms trafficking.

— Two processes are taking place in parallel in the Balkans. The first is the futuroarchaization of life, that is, a return to a situation where clans solve all vital issues. The second element is the inclusion of artificial intelligence, and criminal business is already starting a new milestone in its evolution. In parallel, criminalization is underway, when political institutions actually represent criminal groups," the expert believes.

According to Ponomareva, for the first time in Europe, such a process was launched in Kosovo, which turned into a drug-criminal state. Today, the Balkan-Kosovo scenario is being implemented on the territory of Ukraine. The situation in the Balkans will also continue to deteriorate, the political scientist predicts.

When will the parliamentary elections be held in Serbia?

In neighboring Serbia, threats to their security are taken seriously. In addition to plans to return compulsory conscription to the army, Alexander Vucic announced the construction of a factory for the production of drones. Its opening is scheduled for the end of March.

— Given the environment, we cannot rule out the possibility of an attack on Serbia and its people. We must be vigilant, strong and not let ourselves be taken by surprise," Vucic stressed.

However, a difficult internal political situation remains inside Serbia. Early parliamentary elections will be held in the country next year, Vucic assured once again. He made this statement against the background of a large-scale student rally to collect signatures in support of the demand for early parliamentary elections in dozens of cities. Moreover, the students intend to nominate their own list of candidates from experts who have not previously held positions either in government or in the opposition.

—We accepted their main demand — we will go to the polls soon, next year," the Serbian leader said.

Early parliamentary elections in Serbia should be expected in the second half of next year, INF program manager Milan Lazovic said in a comment to Izvestia. According to him, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party is likely to retain the majority. However, she will most likely have to enter into a coalition with other political forces.

— The Serbian president is taking this step because he is confident of victory. In fact, this is a long—standing technique of Alexander Vucic, he did it several times and every time it works, so he apparently decided to use this tool again," the expert noted.

The sudden announcement of a vote — and in such cases there may not be much time left — gives the ruling party an advantage. For example, in the last parliamentary elections in December 2023, which were also held ahead of schedule, the Serbian Progressive Party won 129 seats out of 250.

An important role will also be played by the fact whether the Serbian authorities will be able to resolve the situation around the NIS oil company controlled by Russian shareholders, against which US sanctions have been imposed. The deadline for negotiations on the sale of the Russian stake has been extended until March 24, 2026. The gas contract between Gazprom and Serbiyagaz has been extended until March 31.

Milan Lazovic believes that protest activity in Serbia will continue next year, but the rallies are still unlikely to maintain their former mass. Moreover, more than a year has passed since the tragedy at the Novi Sad train station, which became the official reason for these actions. However, riots are likely to break out on historical dates, as was the case in June on the Vidovdan holiday, when mass clashes with the police took place.