"The family mortgage rate should automatically decrease when children are born"
Borrowers should have the option to reduce the family mortgage rate at the birth of their second and third children, said Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market. New interest rates on government programs may be approved in the first quarter of 2026.: 10% for families with one child, 6% with two and 4% with three. In order to stimulate the birth rate, an automatic reduction in rates is being considered for family expansion. The State Duma also plans to introduce a cooling-off period when buying a home to counter the so-called Valley scheme. At the same time, the launch of housing deposits to accumulate for the initial mortgage payment has been postponed for the time being. How the authorities are fighting against fraudsters and illegal creditors — in an interview with Anatoly Aksakov to Izvestia.
"New mortgage government programs cannot be introduced indefinitely"
— The introduction of differentiated family mortgage rates is currently being discussed. When do you think the discussion might end?
— The discussion was active, and, in fact, there is an understanding that a differentiated rate is necessary. Initially, preferential mortgages were conceived as a tool to stimulate fertility. This means that the more children there are in a family, the more profitable the conditions should be. I promoted this logic, and now it is supported by the central government bodies. We plan to make a decision in the first quarter of 2026. It is assumed that at the birth of the first child, the rate will be 10%, the second — 6%, and the subsequent - 4%. This is not a final decision yet, but it is supported by the authorities.
— Due to the unavailability of mortgages at 10-12%, many may postpone the purchase of housing until the birth of a second child in order to maintain benefits, depriving themselves of the opportunity to improve their living conditions. Is there a mechanism under consideration in which borrowers who have taken out a mortgage at a higher rate will be able to reduce it after the birth of a second or subsequent child by reissuing the loan to strengthen the benefits?
— Yes, this idea should definitely be fixed in law. Childbearing support should be flexible. The family mortgage rate should automatically decrease at the birth of children — to 6% after the birth of the second child and further to 4% at the birth of the third. This will allow families to reduce monthly payments and loan overpayments, which will create a good incentive to increase the birth rate.
— Is there a consensus on this idea with the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank?
— The topic has been discussed, and almost everyone recognizes the correctness of this idea. I believe that this logic will be fixed in a future solution.
— What other options for preferential mortgages were discussed in detail by the authorities? Have additional changes to existing programs been discussed?
— It is important to understand that new government mortgage programs cannot be introduced indefinitely — in principle, this issue should be treated with caution in conditions of limited budget. The government understands that there is no need to expand the number of preferential programs.
"The cooling-off period to combat the "Valley scheme" can be extended to cars and land"
— Measures are being actively taken to combat fraudsters. As one of them, it is planned to limit the number of cards per person. However, it was reported that the deadline for the adoption of this bill has been postponed to 2027. Why has the decision been postponed?
— This initiative is being discussed. Banks easily track the number of cards held by their customers, but for control between banks, a separate tool and new rules are needed. The creation of an interbank register of cardholders is being considered. From the regulatory side, the solution is almost ready, the main question is how to implement it in practice: where will the base be and how will the banks interact. A specific solution is still being worked out. It is expected that the issue of the maximum number of cards per person will be fully resolved in 2026.
— How successful is the fight against dropper activity now? How has the introduction of criminal liability for such activities affected?
— Criminal liability for participation in schemes for transferring and cashing stolen funds by fraudsters began in July 2025. And already in September, the number of dropper operations dropped sharply, and in October there was an additional decrease of about 30%. Collectively, by the end of the year, the volume of such transfers had almost tripled, and the "life span" of the dropper cards had decreased from months to just a few hours. In the future, the measures of the authorities will actually block the channels of receipt of money to fraudsters.
— Recently, the "Valley scheme" has been actively discussed with the contesting of housing transactions. How is the work on its suppression progressing? Is it necessary even after the decision of the Supreme Court?
— Yes, it is still proposed to introduce a cooling-off period for housing transactions, during which payment for the purchase will be on a special deposit. Funds will be transferred to it directly from the buyer to the seller — without intermediaries.
The issue will be considered in the first quarter of next year, all the rules will be spelled out in the draft law. The changes can be put into effect immediately — the mechanism does not require complex approvals.
— The "Valley Scheme" can also be used with other types of property, such as cars. Can the proposed payment mechanism through deposits and a cooling-off period be applied to other types of property?
— Similar rules should be applied in other areas where similar fraudulent schemes are possible. The cooling-off period to combat the "Valley scheme" can be extended to cars, land, and other large facilities.
In principle, we assume that such mechanisms can be introduced for transactions of legal entities. There are also often problems after the purchase of property. Therefore, it is also appropriate to introduce a cooling period here. This issue is under discussion.
"If a borrower refuses money from an MFI, he can go to illegal lenders"
— Housing deposits did not earn in 2025. What is the problem and when can the mechanism be started?
— The problem is trying to prescribe different norms in one law that require systemic changes in legislation: it was supposed to link the housing contribution with the future receipt of a mortgage, although by that time the borrower may no longer have sufficient income to service the loan. Now we are looking for formulations that resolve this conflict so that people can save up and count on a loan at a reduced rate, at least 1-2% less than the standard one. There were even proposals to withdraw the bill, although it has already passed the first reading. We will have a discussion in January and will look for a solution.
— Next year, they will begin to tighten the regulation of microfinance organizations (MFIs). How do the State Duma assess the risks of Russians switching to illegal creditors because of this?
— There is such a risk. If they refuse money from MFIs, the borrower can go to "black lenders", and the rates there can be ten times higher. Therefore, despite the appeals in the State Duma, we will not liquidate MFIs — if we put excessive pressure on this market, some of the operations will simply go "into the shadows."
But illegal lenders mostly work online, and we basically have an Internet control system for them: discovered sites and advertising messages are blocked, and criminal cases are initiated.
— How is the development of tax incentives to support the company's IPO going now, and what measures besides those already launched are actually planned in 2026?
— For companies to go public, they need interest. Unfortunately, we see that state-owned companies often have no such interest. In 2025, only JSC Dom participated in the procedure.Russia", and quite successfully, but in general, the management of state corporations needs additional motivation.
The incentive may be financial — a separate preferential lending program can be created for public companies that have launched an IPO. In this case, they will receive both investments from the placement of shares and the prospect of cheaper financing in the future.
— How did the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance react to this initiative?
— The Central Bank is interested. The Ministry of Finance is also sympathetic to the idea. In any case, there is an instruction from the president to increase the capitalization of the stock market by at least 66% of Russia's GDP by 2030. It must be carried out — for this it is already necessary to take some actions, and entering the market of state-owned companies can greatly help in this.
Also, for the growth of the attractiveness of the placement of shares, it is important to reduce the key. Reducing deposit rates will lead to a flow of funds to the stock market, which will push the business to new IPOs.
— What key rate do you expect for the end of 2026?
— The key rate may drop to 9% by the end of 2026. This is a very realistic and balanced figure, although many analysts predict it at a level above 10%. Inflation is already showing a noticeable slowdown, and this trend will continue, even despite the upcoming tax changes. I expect that already at the meeting on February 13, the Central Bank will reduce the key rate by at least 0.5 percentage points, and from March there will be a more active easing of its policy.
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