The expert announced stricter requirements for borrowers with lower mortgage rates.

Mortgages retained a key role in the primary housing market in 2025, securing more than half of transactions even at high rates. However, in 2026, credit conditions will change significantly.: The rates, the availability of programs and the principles of state support will be built according to the new rules. Yulia Arkhangelskaya, head of the Commercial services department of the Mangazeya development company, told Izvestia about this on December 30.

According to her, the dynamics of the Bank of Russia's key interest rate will be the main factor in the transformation. After a period of record values, when the "key" reached 21% in the fall of 2023, the regulator switched to a decrease, and the indicator dropped to 16%.

"If the downward trend of the "key" continues, by the end of 2026, rates on basic mortgage programs may drop to 12-13%. This can increase the availability of loans: even reducing the interest rate by 0.5–1 percentage points reduces the borrower's monthly burden, but the specific effect depends on the loan amount, term and selected program, and in some cases can amount to several tens of thousands of rubles per month," said the expert.

She stressed that the reduction in interest rates does not mean a return to the model of mass preferential mortgages. Universal programs, which have been in effect since 2020, have become a significant burden on the budget: if expenditures in 2020-2023 amounted to about 800 billion rubles, then in 2024-2025 it took up to 1-2 trillion rubles annually. In 2026, the vector will change — targeted programs for specific categories of citizens will receive priority.

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In addition, the "one family, one mortgage" rule comes into force on February 1, which applies to the preferential family program: spouses will be able to apply for only one loan and only as co—borrowers. According to Arkhangelskaya, the measure is aimed at limiting investment purchases and supporting those who really improve housing conditions. Within the framework of this approach, the differentiation of rates is discussed: large families can get the most favorable conditions.

The expert expects the strengthening of regional support instruments. In 2026, the subjects of the Russian Federation will be able to launch their own market incentive mechanisms, taking into account demographics, employment and local demand.

At the same time, easing rates will not lead to a reduction in requirements for borrowers. Banks will take a closer look at their debt burden, sources of income, and financial stability. It is possible to revise the terms of the initial payment — in some cases it may increase by 5-15%.

Arkhangelskaya concluded that in 2026, mortgages will switch to a new model: loans will become cheaper, but access to them will be more targeted. Benefits will depend on the family's social profile and regional context, while program flexibility will depend on budget conditions and key rate dynamics.

On December 19, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered its key rate to 16% per annum. This step continues the cycle of moderate monetary policy easing, which is being implemented against the background of continuing inflationary pressures.

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