Stand down: will Thailand and Cambodia come to a peace agreement

Thailand and Cambodia are once again trying to negotiate a ceasefire. The peace talks started on December 24 and are capable of freezing the conflict, experts believe. The mediation of Donald Trump, who has again threatened the warring parties with tariffs if they do not come to an agreement, may play a key role in this. In addition to border disputes, gambling has become a stumbling block, which is why the Thai Air Force is targeting Cambodian casinos. Whether Bangkok and Phnom Penh will be able to come to a peace agreement is in the Izvestia article.

Bangkok and Phnom Penh negotiations

On December 24, peace talks between military representatives of the disputing parties began in the Thai province of Chantaburi, on the border of Thailand and Cambodia. Thai Rear Admiral Surasant Kongsiri said that the meeting of the General Border Committee will last three days.

"If the meeting at the secretariat goes smoothly and leads to an agreement, then a meeting of the defense ministers of the two countries will take place on December 27," he told reporters.

Interestingly, on December 22, a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers was held in Kuala Lumpur, at which Bangkok and Phnom Penh could not come to an agreement, so the parties decided to hold separate bilateral talks at the level of military departments. At the same time, they are still taking place without the participation of the United States. After another escalation of the armed conflict, Donald Trump announced on December 12 that he would try to convince the parties to preserve the peace agreement previously concluded under him. According to him, then he had a "good conversation" with the prime ministers of Thailand and Cambodia.

We are talking about the agreement that Bangkok and Phnom Penh signed on October 26, 2025, with the mediation of the US President at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur. Given Trump's attempts to create an image of a peacemaker, he would like to record the end of this conflict as an asset, Pavel Shaternikov, a junior researcher at IMEMO RAS, said in a conversation with Izvestia. However, so far the mediation efforts of the American leader have not been very effective.

The day after the conversation, it turned out that Trump had simply threatened Thailand and Cambodia with tariffs if the countries did not stop fighting. "I said, 'If you fight, I will not only cancel our trade deal, but also impose duties on your countries,'" the head of the White House said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

"If the Americans see that their mediation is fraught with reputational losses (for example, if peace does not happen), they will reduce the intensity of their participation,— Pavel Shaternikov believes.

Thailand insists that the conflict must be resolved exclusively bilaterally. But it will not be possible to resolve it without intermediaries, says Grigory Kucherenko, a junior researcher at the sector of new challenges in South and Southeast Asia at IMEMO RAS.

— That is why in recent months the issue of ceasefire has been discussed in the context of the US involvement in this process. Trump is threatening both sides with financial sanctions, which are generally effective. Although even they are not able to remove the key causes of the conflict," the expert told Izvestia.

If Washington puts enough effort and pressure on both sides, the conflict can be frozen. Otherwise, there is a high probability that it will continue in 2026, Grigory Kucherenko is sure. Experts agree on this issue.

— The situation is so tense, and people are so nervous, that just a small thing (for example, a peasant stepped on a landmine in the border area) is enough to make it all flare up again. The possibility of continued military operations is also possible," Elena Fomicheva, senior researcher at the Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells Izvestia.

According to her, gambling, which involves a lot of money, plays an unobvious but important role in the conflict. From the point of view of the Thai authorities, casinos located on the territory of Cambodia represent a concentration of fraudsters and high crime, which harms the Thai economy, explains Grigory Kucherenko. Perhaps that is why the Thai Air Force has repeatedly attacked Cambodian casinos, in particular in the city of Poipet. In total, attacks on at least four casinos were reported in a week, the Bangkok Post writes.

Location of dispute: Escalation between Thailand and Cambodia reaches a new level

Bangkok begins the operation of the Navy and Air Force, Trump is preparing to return the parties to the terms of the peace agreement.

The history of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia

The main reason for the historical confrontation between Thailand and Cambodia is that since the beginning of the 20th century, neither the countries themselves nor the international community have been able to settle disputes over their border territories.

On this basis, in the 21st century, conflicts between states broke out in 2008-2011, after which a new escalation occurred in 2025. The reason for the largest conflict in the last 14 years was the disputed territories around the temple complexes of Preahviheah and Ta Moan Thom. In February, a video appeared on social media showing Cambodian soldiers singing patriotic songs near the Ta Moan Thom temple. In response, Thailand issued an official protest, pulling military forces to the border, and in May there was a shootout, after which the parties accused each other of provocation. In June, Phnom Penh banned the import of fruits and vegetables from Thailand, and Bangkok closed borders and cut off electricity and Internet transmission to Cambodia.

Tensions increased significantly on July 23, 2025, when a Thai patrol hit a mine in the border area, after which another firefight began in the area of the Ta Moan Thom temple, Thailand even announced the launch of Operation War for Earth. However, with the participation of the United States, China and Malaysia, the parties were still able to agree on a ceasefire: on August 7 in Kuala Lumpur, they consolidated this decision in 13 points. There, on October 26, Thailand and Cambodia signed a peace agreement. Then the parties agreed to withdraw heavy weapons from the border areas in the period from November 1 to December 31 and cooperate in the clearance of territories. After that, Trump proudly declared that "this is one of the eight wars" that he has completed.

As it turned out later, the parties went back to their old ways. Mutual shelling resumed on December 8. According to the Cambodian Ministry of Defense, Thailand was the first to open fire. Bangkok claims the opposite. According to AFP, the Thai military crossed the border with Cambodia and captured the disputed village of Payrachan, and Thai F-16 Air Force dropped bombs on the Cambodian city of Samraong.

In response, Phnom Penh began to use heavy artillery: on December 23, its troops fired about 200 rockets at positions of Thai forces and civilian objects during the day, and 51 Thai objects were attacked by BM-21 multiple rocket launchers. As a result, about 54,000 people have fled their homes in the border provinces of Cambodia, and in Thailand, more than 125,000 residents are currently in temporary accommodation. Russian Ambassador to Thailand Evgeny Tomikhin urged Russians to refrain from visiting areas bordering Cambodia. At the same time, Maya Lomidze, executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), previously told RIA Novosti that the escalation of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia is not felt in tourist areas.