Entrapping maneuver: the EU is looking for ways to retreat after the failed summit
Europe is trying to maneuver after the failure of the "reparation" loan to Kiev at the expense of frozen assets of the Russian Federation. They understand the irreversible nature of the offensive by the Russian Armed Forces and therefore express their willingness to make contacts with Moscow, Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia. Earlier, Emmanuel Macron called on the Europeans to start a dialogue with Vladimir Putin. At the same time, the EU remains the main sponsor of the Ukrainian conflict. The countries of the community have nevertheless agreed on a loan of €90 billion at their own expense. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are launching targeted strikes against Russian facilities, including energy infrastructure and the navy, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. What position the European countries have now taken on the settlement is in the Izvestia article.
Europe is looking for ways to retreat
While Russia and the United States are trying to agree on a peace plan for Ukraine, Europe is rushing from one strategy to another, trying to get involved in the process. The recent actions of its leaders resemble confusion, primarily due to the change in the US approach. Back in November, the White House announced the termination of direct financing of the conflict, a decision made by Donald Trump. And Brussels began frantically searching for new sources of funds for Kiev.
— For three years since the beginning of the special military operation, the European Union has not had a headache in this regard, because the Americans have borne the lion's share of the costs. But Trump appeared, and everything turned upside down: the Europeans, from my point of view, were caught off guard because they did not include these costs in strategic planning," Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy chairman of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
In recent weeks, the information field has been occupied by discussions of the so-called reparation loan secured by Russian frozen assets in the amount of €210 billion. It was supposed to be agreed at the EU summit on December 18-19. At first, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk even declared a "breakthrough," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who lobbied for the confiscation the most, estimated the chances as "50-50," and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban argued that "the issue is dead," and turned out to be right.
Probably, the key role was played by the position of Belgium, where most of the assets of the Russian Federation are stored. Prime Minister Bart De Wever, tirelessly pointing out the huge reputational risks, finally got his way and even joked that now he would probably immediately be accused of sympathizing with Moscow, bypassing common sense.
— Now I have to go to my dacha in St. Petersburg, where my neighbor is Depardieu, and across the street is [Bashar] Assad. And I think I can become mayor there... Write about it," the Belgian politician sneered.
As a result, the EU only managed to agree on a loan of €90 billion from its own budget, although without the participation of Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Merz expects the money to arrive as early as next month and help Ukraine hold out for another two years. According to the German media, he found himself in a kind of political isolation after the story of the failed reparation loan.
— All these compromises have revealed a fundamental contradiction: no European mechanism can work without the consent of all 27 members. This signals a deeper crisis.: The EU is no longer able to develop a unified position on strategic issues," Maria Frolova, a researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, commented on the events to Izvestia.
Moreover, it is hard to believe in Kiev's ability to repay the loan after the conflict is resolved. In this regard, Politico notes that the European Union will have to constantly refinance the debt, paying €3 billion annually in the form of interest. And this burden will fall on the shoulders of taxpayers in most EU countries.
The prospect is dubious, which Emmanuel Macron was probably the first to realize when he decided to regain his reputation as the main European mediator. On December 19, the day of the "Results of the Year" with Vladimir Putin, the French president said that resuming negotiations with the Russian leader "is in the interests of Europeans and Ukrainians," hinting at lagging behind the Americans. At the beginning of his career, it was he who regularly initiated communication with Putin.
— This maneuver exposed the split between France and Germany: Macron thus covertly undermined support for the confiscation plan. He positions France as a potential mediator between the West and Russia on terms much more flexible than the Trump plan, Maria Frolova believes.
Now, with such statements, the EU is preparing maneuvers for "retreat," Konstantin Kosachev believes.
— We will have to be responsible for this militaristic attitude in the very near future, when it becomes obvious that the fracture on the line of contact is irreversible. And in this situation, the European Union will have to answer to its citizens not only in terms of financial costs, but also political costs. In this situation, the idea of some new additional political contacts arises," the politician explained.
It is important to note that the Russian side has never rejected the possibility of such contacts and has always advocated dialogue. So this time, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Vladimir Putin is ready for talks with Emmanuel Macron. At the same time, he added that possible contacts between the leaders should be "an attempt to understand each other's positions," and not "lecturing."
—And this is possible only if the current approach of the EU countries is changed to prolong the Ukrainian conflict and pump up Ukraine with new financial and other opportunities," the deputy speaker of the Federation Council believes.
Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian facilities
Despite cautious statements, the role of EU countries in the settlement has not changed much yet, as they remain the main "shareholders" of the Ukrainian conflict, Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
— Their task, on the one hand, is to prevent the end of the conflict, which will be regarded as a serious defeat for Ukraine. After all, this is an extremely serious loss of image for the EU — it is enough to listen to the statements of "middle-level" politicians who directly say that the issue of the international weight and reputation of the EU depends on the outcome of the conflict. The tactical task of the EU is to more actively declare itself in order not to be a third—party participant in the negotiation process," the political scientist believes.
While the EU is financing Ukraine, attacks on various Russian facilities are continuing. Recently, civilian facilities, including the energy infrastructure, and the naval arsenal of the Russian Federation have been attacked. On December 22, it became known that two berths and two ships were damaged in the Temryuk district of the Krasnodar Territory. A few days ago, attacks on a tanker in the neutral waters of the Mediterranean Sea were reported — Western media noted that this was the first such precedent. After the drone attacks, the ship was critically damaged and is no longer suitable for transportation. According to the agencies, the SBU assumed responsibility. In recent weeks, Ukraine has significantly expanded its "maritime" campaign, striking oil platforms in the Caspian Sea and claiming responsibility for drone attacks on three tankers in the Black Sea.
— We are currently witnessing a significant increase in the number of attacks. We see targeted attacks on energy facilities and, in this case, on facilities related to the fleet and the delivery of petroleum products," Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador—at-large for crimes committed by the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
The Russian border region continues to suffer. The Kherson, Belgorod and Kursk regions are under fire. The main task of Ukraine is to strike civilian targets, to rock the atmosphere as much as possible, creating tension, the diplomat concluded.
The Europeans, of course, are the key force behind the intensification of Kiev's actions, emphasizes Oleg Karpovich, vice—rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
— The most sincere representatives of the EU and the UK countries do not hide that they consider the continued arming of Ukraine as a way of long-term deterrence of the Russian threat they have invented. The anti-Russian coalition is doing its best to disrupt the conflict settlement process and hopes for the failure of the ongoing negotiations. If it weren't for the pressure from Trump, the hawks of the Old World wouldn't even begin to simulate involvement in diplomacy, the expert believes.
Weapons are being pumped through other channels as well. The PURL initiative, launched jointly by the United States and NATO in July this year, has not gone away. Although the White House disavowed financial support for Ukraine in November, the Americans still sell weapons to their alliance allies, which are then sent to their war zone. In early December, after a meeting of the Ukraine–NATO Council, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga announced that five new countries had joined the program, bringing the total number of sponsors to 21 and the amount of commitments to $4.18 billion. Recently, for example, Norway decided to allocate an additional $500 million in two tranches together with Germany, Poland and the Netherlands.
On the other hand, the previous consensus in Europe is clearly eroding. All pro-Ukrainian initiatives, even PURL, are opposed. Thus, Italy refused to join the program in the light of the ongoing peace negotiations. This proves that there is growing internal opposition to the uncontrolled increase in spending on keeping Kiev afloat indefinitely, and sooner or later the hardliners may remain in the minority. But until this happens, we should be prepared to repel the next Ukrainian-European provocations.
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