The expert assessed the prospects of gold in 2026 after record growth

The current year has become one of the most successful for the gold market in recent decades. The price of the metal has updated historical highs more than 50 times and increased by more than 60% by the end of the year. In dollar terms, quotations confidently exceeded the mark of $ 4 thousand per troy ounce and rose to the level of $ 4.3 thousand, and in rubles, the cost of a gram exceeded 10 thousand rubles for the first time. General Director of the service Moneymatika.ru Maxim Molderf assessed the prospects for gold after record growth on December 27 in an interview with Izvestia.

"The rise in gold prices was supported by a number of factors. Geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and events in the Middle East have increased demand for defensive assets. At the same time, confidence in the dollar decreased against the background of record US government debt and budget imbalances. Demand from central banks also played an important role: in the first half of 2025 alone, they purchased more than 400 tons of gold, and by the end of the year, the volume of purchases may approach 900 tons. An additional factor was the growth of investment demand from private investors," the expert said.

Figure of the day: the volume of trading in crypto futures on the Moscow Stock Exchange has reached a record

This is the absolute maximum since the launch of the contracts.

After a rapid rally, the market entered a correction phase. Molderf considers the decline in quotations in the range of 7-10% to be technical and consistent with the historical norm. According to the calculations of the service, in previous periods, such rollbacks more often became a pause before continuing growth, rather than a signal of a reversal of a long-term trend.

Forecasts for 2026 remain mostly positive. The gold price is expected to be around $4.5 thousand per troy ounce. It is also allowed to increase quotations to $ 4.5–5 thousand. For Russian investors, the key factor, in addition to the global price, remains the ruble exchange rate. A possible weakening of the national currency to 85-95 rubles per dollar may provide a double-return effect due to the simultaneous rise in global prices and the devaluation of the ruble.

"In these circumstances, the question is not so much whether it is worth investing in gold, but rather how much of it should be allocated. The traditional recommendation to keep at least 10% of the portfolio in metal remains, but estimates are increasingly being made in favor of increasing the share to 20%. In 2026, gold remains for private investors not an instrument of short—term speculation, but a way of long-term protection and diversification of capital against the background of the ongoing restructuring of the global financial system," the expert concluded.

On December 18, it was reported that the price of gold futures updated its historical maximum, exceeding $4.4 thousand per troy ounce. As of 19:18 Moscow time, growth accelerated to 1.05%, and the price of the precious metal reached $4,407.5 per ounce.

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