Part — land: The Middle East is facing a water crisis
The Middle East and North Africa are facing a growing water crisis: by 2030, demand for this resource in the region may exceed supply by almost 50%. Water scarcity increases economic risks, undermines food security, and exacerbates disputes over cross—border rivers from the Tigris and Euphrates to the Nile, turning it into one of the key factors of regional instability. At the same time, the shortage of resources is exacerbated by climate change, population growth and cross-border problems.
The demand for water is twice as high as the supply
Water scarcity is becoming one of the key challenges for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. Of the 17 most water-deficient countries in the world, 12 are located in the Middle East, which is already affecting economic policy and regional security issues. The situation is aggravated by climate change, rapid population growth and inefficient water resources management.
Water scarcity directly increases the potential for conflict, says expert Daniella Bostrom, who previously represented the UN—Water mechanism. According to her assessment, in the Sahel countries, the degradation of wetlands, largely related to ill-conceived projects in the field of water construction, has intensified local disputes over access to water and fertile lands.
"A similar logic can be traced in the Arab world, where protracted conflicts in a number of countries have undermined water infrastructure, complicated resource management, and effectively blocked opportunities for regional cooperation in the water sector," the expert told Izvestia.
Climate change has a disproportionately strong impact on the region. Rising temperatures, unstable precipitation, and increased evaporation are increasing pressure on the already limited supply of fresh water. Despite the fact that only 1% of the world's water resources are concentrated in the Middle East, about 6% of the world's population lives here. The level of water availability per capita in most countries of the region is well below the threshold of absolute scarcity. In Jordan, Yemen and a number of Gulf States, this figure dropped below 100 cubic meters. m per year (in Russia, 29 thousand cubic meters By 2030, demand for water is projected to exceed supply by almost 50%.
The economic consequences of such an imbalance can be widespread. By the middle of the century, water stress can reduce the total GDP of the region's countries by up to 14%, increasing migration flows and conflict potential. In Iraq and Syria, water shortages have already led to a decline in agricultural production and an outflow of people from rural areas. In Egypt, any disruptions in the flow of the Nile pose risks to food security, energy, and macroeconomic stability.
Maisoun Zubi, an expert on international water policy and water diplomacy, draws attention to the long-term risks to food security.
"According to alarming forecasts, by 2050 the countries of the Arab region may face a reduction in water availability by about 30%, which will lead to a drop in agricultural production by 30-60%," the expert told Izvestia.
According to Maysun Zubi, such dynamics pose a systemic threat to a region characterized by large—scale land degradation — almost half of such territories in the world are in Arab countries - and high dependence on food imports, exceeding 50%.
Iraq may be left without rivers
Against this background, the countries of the region are increasingly turning to energy-intensive technological solutions, primarily desalination. However, without switching to more sustainable energy sources, such measures only increase the burden on budgets and systems. An additional risk factor remains the dependence of some countries on energy imports, which makes the water infrastructure vulnerable to price fluctuations and supply disruptions.
Iraq remains an example of vulnerability in the regional water balance. About 98% of the country's total water resources are formed by the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, whose sources are located outside Iraqi territory. This water supply structure makes Baghdad critically dependent on the decisions of neighboring States and increases the country's sensitivity to any changes in transboundary water management.
Against the background of climate change and increased water intake in the upper reaches of the rivers, the situation continues to deteriorate. Between 1933 and 2023, the amount of available water resources in Iraq has more than tripled, from 30 billion cubic meters to 9.5 billion cubic meters. m. 2025 was the driest year in the country since 1993: adviser to the Ministry of Agriculture of Iraq Mahdi Damad stated that the republic should form a negotiating group for dialogue with neighbors to ensure with its full resources. If current climatic and political trends persist, Iraq risks actually losing permanent river flows in their current form by 2040.
The environmental consequences of water scarcity go far beyond economic indicators. The Mesopotamian marshes, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and one of the key ecosystems of the region, home to dozens of rare and endangered species, are under threat of re—drying. The decrease in water inflow is already affecting biodiversity, the traditional way of life of local communities and the sustainability of the southern regions of the country.
The controversy surrounding the Nile
The Nile basin remains another key node of water tension in the region. This river is considered a critically important artery for Egypt and Sudan, providing the bulk of fresh water for the population, agriculture and economy of these countries. At the same time, the sources of the Nile — the White and Blue Nile — are located outside Egypt, which objectively increases its vulnerability.
The central source of tension has been Ethiopia's construction of the Vozrozhdenie Dam, the largest hydropower project on the African continent, where the Blue Nile originates. The unilateral nature of the decisions to fill the reservoir, without legal agreements with Cairo, undermined trust between the parties.
In Egypt, it is feared that the dam's large reservoir, designed for about 74 billion cubic meters of water, can reduce its flow downstream, especially during periods of initial filling, as well as during dry years. For the republic, this poses risks of lowering the water level in Lake Nasser behind the Aswan Dam with potential consequences for irrigation, food production and electricity generation.
When the Vozrozhdenie HPP was commissioned in September 2025, no significant reduction in Nile flow was recorded. At the same time, the operating mode of the dam makes it possible to regulate flows, which can potentially stabilize runoff, but at the same time strengthens Ethiopia's control over water resources during dry periods.
The risks of this model became apparent in the fall of 2025, when heavy rains combined with dam discharges led to flooding in Sudan and northern Egypt, causing damage to agriculture and displacement of the population. Cairo blamed the Ethiopian side for this, while Addis Ababa explained the situation solely by natural factors.
As you can see, the water crisis in the Middle East and North Africa has gone far beyond ecology and infrastructure. It has become a factor of economic sustainability, social stability and regional security. In the context of climate change, population growth and worsening cross-border contradictions, the key issue remains the ability of States to move towards coordinated models of water and energy resources management.
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