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- Profitable move: what are the chances of the Central Bank returning assets blocked in the EU
Profitable move: what are the chances of the Central Bank returning assets blocked in the EU
The Bank of Russia is highly likely to win a lawsuit against the Belgian depository Euroclear for blocked assets worth about €210 billion, according to politicians and experts interviewed by Izvestia. However, until the sanctions are lifted from the Russian Federation, the Europeans are unlikely to be able to comply with the court's decision. Nevertheless, Russia will be able to take retaliatory measures. Euroclear does not have any assets in Russia that can actually be recovered, but assets of European banks like Unicredit or Raiffeisen may be at risk. On December 12, it became known that the Council of the European Union had decided to indefinitely block sovereign funds of the Russian Federation, and Belgium, which had previously opposed such actions, voted in favor. The return of Russia's reserves will depend on it, according to Izvestia.
Will the Central Bank be able to win the case on unblocking assets
On Friday, December 12, the Bank of Russia announced the filing of a lawsuit with the Moscow Arbitration Court against Euroclear. The Central Bank intends to recover the losses caused. We are talking about the illegal actions of the European depository to block Russian assets.
"The filing is due, among other things, to the officially announced plans of the European Commission to indefinitely freeze the funds of the Bank of Russia, as well as plans to use the assets of the Bank of Russia to transfer to third parties," the press service of the Central Bank explained to Izvestia.
The EU has blocked Russian assets worth about €210 billion, or about 19.5 trillion rubles (at the official exchange rate of 93 rubles/€ as of December 12). Recently, Europe has been actively arguing about the possibility of indefinitely confiscating this amount from Russia for payments to Kiev. This figure is several times higher than the country's budget deficit, which reached 3.8 trillion rubles in the first nine months of 2025. It also corresponds to half of all revenues included in the financial plan for 2026 (about 40.3 trillion rubles).
This is the first lawsuit filed by the Russian regulator against Euroclear since its assets were blocked in 2022, the head of the international project explained. Razmorozka.com Alexey Bogdanov. The event is significant — if earlier the dispute with the Belgian depository was conducted mainly by private investors, now the discussion is becoming an international political one.
Experts highly rate the chances of the Russian Federation to win the case. Permanent blocking is considered indirect expropriation: the property has not been formally taken away, but its value has disappeared. The Bank of Russia has officially recognized such assets as non-recoverable, which confirms the existence of losses, said Yan Goncharov, senior associate at the Delcredere Bar Association. Judicial practice also consistently supports the recovery of damages.
— The chances of the Central Bank winning a trial in this case in an arbitration court are almost one hundred percent. And any foreign court, if it is objective, will also side with Russia. In general, it was worth filing such a lawsuit earlier," said Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets.
The Bank of Russia is also considering the possibility of protecting interests in international courts with subsequent enforcement of their acts in the UN member states, the regulator's press service added.
A day earlier, on December 11, most of the EU countries agreed to the indefinite blocking of Russian assets. Moreover, the ambassadors made the decision not unanimously, but by the majority principle — this allowed the EC to bypass the veto from countries such as Hungary. The next day, Belgium voted for a long-term asset freeze, which had previously opposed such actions with Russian reserves. Bulgaria, Italy and Malta have also joined the initiative. According to Reuters, these countries stated that "the decision on the use of Russian assets for Ukraine should be made at the EU summit."
On the evening of December 12, it became known that the Council of the European Union had decided to indefinitely block the sovereign funds of the Russian Federation. EU countries have agreed to keep Russian assets frozen until the end of the Ukrainian conflict and until payments to Kiev from Moscow, said the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa.
In early December, the EC approved the option of financing Ukraine through Russian assets in Europe, with plans to allocate €165 billion to Kiev. The Belgian Prime Minister opposed this decision, and the European Central Bank (ECB) reported that any legally improper use of assets could provoke an outflow of investors' capital from the eurozone.
Izvestia has sent a request to the ECB about discussions on the confiscation of blocked Russian funds. They reported that the organization has no comments on this topic.
Valerie Urbain, CEO of Euroclear, also noted that the use of Russian assets could be regarded as confiscation. He recalled that Europe has been a guarantor of international law for decades — according to him, it is not worth using the infrastructure of financial markets as a weapon.
How can Russia respond to the theft of assets
It is important to separate the chance to receive a court decision and the opportunity to execute it, said Alexey Bogdanov from Razmorozka.com . The problem is that Euroclear does not have any property in the Russian Federation that can be foreclosed on, and the depository is protected by a political sanctions regime outside the country.
Even if the Bank of Russia wins in court, Euroclear will not be able to make a payment in favor of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation without special permission from the European authorities, explained financial lawyer Olga Plekhanova. Therefore, the Bank of Russia's lawsuit is rather of strategic and negotiating importance, she concluded.
The real leverage of Russia and the Central Bank here is more moral and reputational than financial, says Anastasia Feinberg, a consultant at the Estonian Legal Alliance. The country has imposed mirror restrictions on the assets of "unfriendly" non-residents, they do not put pressure on Euroclear or the EU.
"The main negotiating stake of the Russian Federation is the public fixation of the legal gap: a demonstration that Europe is replacing the rule of law with political motives," Anastasia Feinberg noted.
The situation with frozen assets is not symmetrical, Yulia Khandoshko, CEO of Mind Money broker, agreed. The funds of Russian investors and government agencies have been frozen abroad, which is causing multibillion-dollar losses. Nevertheless, European banks — Raiffeisen, UniCredit and others - are still operating in Russia, and they continue to make profits. And for the EU, it matters what happens to these banks in the event of an escalation of the conflict, although the measures cannot be called mirror measures.
The Russian government is developing measures in case of seizure of Russian assets abroad, Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier. His spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the EU's plans a grandiose scam. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also warned of a harsh response to any illegal actions against them, not only from Moscow, but also from other countries.
How likely is it that the assets of the Central Bank in the EU will be confiscated
There is a possibility that the assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will be withdrawn. This can be done not through direct confiscation, but through complex legal structures, such as reparative loans or reinvestment of income. There is a clear political will in the EU to actually transfer the economic effect of these funds to the union and Kiev — we are now talking about how to "legally package" this decision, says Yevgeny Amelkin, director of the Eastern Legal Alliance.
At the same time, there is a struggle between Euroclear and the European Union for Russian assets, Olga Plekhanova added. It is beneficial for the Belgian side to keep them, because taxes on them help to close the holes in the national budget. For example, in 2024, Euroclear earned €6.9 billion from the reserves of the Russian Federation, of which €1.7 billion in taxes were paid. It is advantageous for the EU to finance Ukraine without involving the funds of its taxpayers.
At the same time, there is still a possibility that the assets may be returned when an agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and the EU, said Jan Goncharov from Delcredere. The return of reserves would increase Russia's financial stability, give the market more stability and room for maneuver in stress scenarios.
Nevertheless, the seizure of assets can strengthen Russia's position on the world stage, Olga Plekhanova concluded. Such a decision will harm the reputation of the EU and will contribute to the further development of a financial infrastructure independent of the dollar and the euro.
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