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- There is no shortage: tax debts in the Russian Federation have approached the budget deficit
There is no shortage: tax debts in the Russian Federation have approached the budget deficit
The debts of Russians and businesses on taxes reached a record 3.3 trillion in October, which is 20% more than last year, Izvestia found out. However, only a third of them are arrears, and the rest are penalties and fines. Among the reasons for the growth are declining company profits, high interest rates, and increased government control. At the same time, tax collection is also increasing. How the state plans to return to the budget an amount that is comparable to the treasury deficit is described in the Izvestia article.
How fast debts are growing in Russia
The total debt of Russians and businesses to the budget of the Russian Federation for the first nine months of 2025 reached a record 3.26 trillion rubles, according to the report "Socio-economic situation of Russia", which Rosstat publishes every month (Izvestia analyzed it). This includes arrears in taxes and fees, insurance premiums, penalties, tax penalties, and interest. This is almost 20% more than last year, when it was just over 2.7 trillion.
Of this amount, only 1.2 trillion rubles are in arrears, the rest are penalties and fines. The longer the debtor does not pay, the more the amount "runs up". At the same time, about 23% of the debt is generated by small companies, while the other part is generated by large businesses and citizens. The editorial board contacted Rosstat with a question about the reasons for such an increase in tax debts.
The Federal Tax Service explained to Izvestia that it is correct to assess not the nominal level of debt, but its ratio to receipts for the previous one-year period. This reflects the state of payment discipline, as well as the level of recoverability of unpaid amounts. For example, as of October 1, the figure was 5.4%, which is lower than in 2023 (it was 6.1% then), the tax service explained.
In addition, the introduction of the Unified Tax Account (ENS) has increased the transparency of tax accounting and payments. This, in turn, reduced the number of debtors by half, and the number of penalties by three times, the press service noted. At the same time, it allowed us to complete the automation of collection — all the main process measures are now applied centrally automatically. Due to this, in 2025, revenues from recovery measures from debtor taxpayers will be increased by almost 25%, which is 513 billion rubles more than last year, they said.
First of all, the change in indicators is due to an increase in the quality of tax administration, believes Alexey Krylov, an expert of the Council of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation on the financial market and investments, a tax consultant. According to him, inspectors are getting better at detecting and suppressing tax evasion attempts every year.
It is more difficult for businesses to use illegal schemes to reduce payments, added financial advisor and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. Due to this, the work of companies has become more transparent, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Another reason is that companies' profits have declined — loans have become more expensive, and costs have increased, said Olga Gogaladze, an economist and expert on financial markets. The share of unprofitable companies is growing — in such conditions it is more difficult to pay fees on time, because there is less free money, she believes.
Inflation also increases all tax indicators and, with them, the nominal amount of arrears and other types of debt, said Vadim Zasko, Dean of the Faculty of Taxes, Audit and Business Analysis at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. If prices rise, then the tax base expands, Alexey Krylov said. However, even with inflation, debts are still increasing. In 2025, they increased by 20%, while the annual price growth rate, according to Rosstat, was 6.6% in November.
The growth of debt is also influenced by a high key. The Bank of Russia kept the rate at a record level of 21% for six months, and it was only in early June that it began a gradual reduction cycle. It currently stands at 16.5%, but most analysts expect the regulator to lower it by another 0.5 percentage points at the last meeting this year. Penalties are linked to the rate — they grow with it, Olga Gogaladze explained. With a high key rate, even a small delay turns into a serious fine for a business.
However, in addition to the increase in debts, tax collection has also increased this year. As Izvestia previously reported, the federal budget received 2.9 trillion rubles from income tax in January–September 2025, which is 82% more than in the same period last year. Other income also increased: personal income tax — by 87% and VAT — by 23%.
What are the risks of increased debt
The growth of debt in some cases may lead to an increase in the number of bankruptcies, and industries with low margins and high debt loads remain at the greatest risk, says economist Olga Gogaladze. According to her, about a third of the business is currently operating at a loss — interest payments in 2025 will eat up a huge share of profits.
Small and medium-sized businesses feel this burden especially acutely. If there is no mitigation in the form of installments or a reduction in the rate, then there will be more bankruptcies, the expert expects.
To support small businesses in such conditions, a federal project is in effect in Russia until 2030. Under it, small players can receive preferential loans (the key rate is minus 3.5%), guarantees and guarantees, loans from MFIs, preferential leasing, grants, assistance in issuing bonds, exporting and participating in public procurement.
Further, the situation with company closures and high business losses may stabilize slightly: the key interest rate has begun to decrease, which means that loans will become more affordable.
Now the size of the total debts of Russians and businesses on taxes has approached the federal budget deficit. According to the results of the first nine months of 2025, it amounted to 3.8 trillion, according to the Ministry of Finance. Repayment of the total debt could cover approximately 85% of the treasury shortfall.
In conditions of budget deficit, the repayment of tax arrears is important because it forces the government to increase borrowing or reduce costs, explained Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. The more efficient the administration and collection, the lower the burden on the government debt market and the more stable the financial system. At the same time, the key task is to maintain a balance: excessively harsh pressure can increase bankruptcies and a chain of defaults, reducing tax collection in the future.
— The state returns such amounts to the budget not as a one-time measure, but through the systematic work of the tax authorities and the Ministry of Finance. The focus is on targeted interaction with the largest debtors, accelerated recovery of undisputed debts and tough measures against chronic defaulters (for example, account blocking, foreclosure on property, bankruptcy procedures and bringing supervisors to justice)," the expert explained.
According to Astafyev, at the same time it is necessary to apply more flexible mechanisms — installments, restructuring, reduction of penalties for voluntary repayment, which will allow to return the money without undermining the business.
It is unlikely that such an amount will be fully allocated to the budget in the shortest possible time, Natalia Milchakova noted. However, with systematic work, the debt will begin to decrease, experts expect.
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