Location of dispute: Escalation between Thailand and Cambodia reaches a new level

Russia is counting on resolving the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia in the format of agreements reached through the mediation of the United States in Kuala Lumpur, the Russian Embassy in Phnom Penh told Izvestia. A new round of escalation of the long-standing conflict began last weekend, and now the Thai army has announced the launch of a joint Naval and Air Force operation. There are already dead and injured people on each side, including among the civilian population, about 500 thousand people were forced to leave their homes. Washington has finally acknowledged that the conflict has flared up again, and Donald Trump intends to bring the parties back to the negotiating table. What is happening in the region now and whether the United States still has leverage is in the Izvestia article.

What is happening on the Thai-Cambodian border right now

Violent clashes between Cambodia and Thailand have been going on for several days. The conflict seriously escalated over the weekend, and on December 10, the Royal Thai Navy, with the participation of the Air Force, launched an operation called "Trat Suppresses Foes."

As part of the operation, the HTMS Thepa warship will conduct round-the-clock patrols and surveillance of enemy troops. The entire ship's crew has been put on full alert, and the weapons systems are ready to respond immediately to any escalation. At the same time, the Kingdom's Air Force continues to carry out airstrikes against targets in Cambodia. The authorities claim that the operation will not end until its goals are achieved.

At the same time, the Russian Embassy in Cambodia notes that there is no risk of the conflict escalating into a full-scale war yet.

— At the moment, local clashes between the armed forces of Cambodia and Thailand are taking place in the border areas, which are the subject of a long-standing historical dispute between the two states. It is unlikely that the confrontation will escalate into a full-scale war in the near term. At the same time, taking into account the irreconcilable differences between Phnom Penh and Bangkok, it is extremely difficult to make predictions about the further development of the crisis, the diplomatic mission told Izvestia.

Russian diplomats recommended to refrain from visiting the areas bordering Thailand, and also to closely monitor the official statements of the competent authorities of the kingdom. At the same time, Maya Lomidze, executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), told RIA Novosti on December 10 that the escalation of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia was not felt in tourist areas, and the mood among tourists was calm.

Military disputes: why fighting broke out again between Thailand and Cambodia

Bangkok is already deploying armored personnel carriers to the border.

Meanwhile, the renewed conflict has already led to considerable casualties. Thailand lost at least four soldiers, 68 were injured. Cambodia, in turn, states the death of nine civilians, including a child, and 46 injured. In total, half a million people had to leave their homes — these are 400 thousand Thais and 127 thousand Cambodians. Hundreds of schools have been closed in both countries.

Against this background, Cambodia has even announced its plans to appeal to the International Criminal Court (ICC) — an appropriate package of documents is already being prepared. A senior official told the local Khmer Times that Thailand's encroachment on Cambodia's sovereignty and territorial integrity had led to major destruction and multiple civilian casualties. He also stressed that the Thai Armed Forces used "all kinds of heavy weapons," including fighter jets that allegedly dropped bombs on civilian areas. The Cambodian Ministry of Defense also claims that enemy troops are using toxic gas against civilians.

However, initially it was Thailand that accused Cambodia of violating the truce on December 8. According to the military, Phnom Penh has deployed heavy equipment, including tanks, to the border, reinforced fortifications and brought troops to full combat readiness. It is claimed that the Cambodian military was the first to open fire on Thai positions, killing one Thai soldier and wounding two others.

Can the United States bring the parties back to the negotiating table

The peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, brokered by Donald Trump in October, is being presented by the American president as one of his main victories and the reason for awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize. Nevertheless, this agreement, like, for example, the agreement between Rwanda and DR Congo, is on the verge of collapse, the American media state.

At the same time, the head of the White House, in his characteristic manner, insists that he can still return the conflicting countries to the terms of the agreements: "I will have to call both countries <...> Who else could say: "I will call and stop the war of two very powerful countries"? We make peace by force," Trump says.

The Thai authorities claim that they are ready to talk to the American president. "If the US president calls, we have to answer and talk. But we have to explain the situation so that he understands. He can't know the details better than me, so I'm going to explain it to him," said Anuthin Chanvirakun, the kingdom's prime minister.

At the same time, the threat of tariff increases should not be used for pressure, the Thai Foreign Ministry said. In addition, they believe that Cambodia should take the first step towards peace.

— The Russian Federation always stands for the resolution of all existing differences between the countries by political and diplomatic methods. We believe that the border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand must be resolved in the spirit of unity and solidarity inherent in ASEAN. We hope that, despite the local clashes, Phnom Penh and Bangkok will return to the negotiating table within the framework of the agreements reached on October 26, 2025 in Kuala Lumpur, the Russian Embassy in Cambodia emphasizes.

Translate the shootout: Thailand and Cambodia question Trump's peacekeeping efforts

After the incident at the border, there is a dead man and injured

For both Cambodia and Thailand, the United States is an important trading partner, so the levers that Washington can use are quite effective for the peace process, Grigory Kucherenko, a junior researcher at the Sector of New Challenges in South and Southeast Asia at the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.

— In addition to tariffs, Donald Trump can reduce the import of goods from both countries, change their trade status for the United States — he has a wide range of tools. The only question is how far he is willing to go in this regard. At the same time, the United States alone is not enough to resolve the crisis, because they do not know deeply its root causes," the expert continues.

The conflict is unlikely to turn into a full-fledged war, Kucherenko argues, but it is still difficult to predict its duration. Thailand has several goals. The internal political issues are the need to preserve and strengthen the status of the Armed Forces, which has been somewhat shaken since the elections. In terms of foreign policy, Thailand is also seeking to strengthen control over disputed territories. It is precisely because of them and the lack of a clear demarcation of borders that the Thai-Cambodian conflict has been smoldering for more than 100 years.