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- Squares and eyes: the restriction of family mortgages caused an increase in prices for new buildings
Squares and eyes: the restriction of family mortgages caused an increase in prices for new buildings
The cost of apartments in new buildings has increased dramatically in most Russian megacities, market participants told Izvestia. Experts recalled that from February 2026, a restriction on obtaining a family program based on the principle of "one mortgage, one family" comes into force, which provoked a sharp increase in demand for primary housing. Against this background, the cost per square meter in most of the largest cities in November – December showed the largest increase since the beginning of the year. About how the market for new buildings will develop and whether to expect further price increases, see the Izvestia article.
Why has the cost per square meter increased?
The average cost per square meter in the primary housing market in most of Russia's largest cities has shown the largest monthly increase since the beginning of the year. Market participants and analysts told Izvestia about this.
— The announced changes in the family mortgage from February 1 next year have led to a new wave of demand for apartments in new buildings, — said Alexander Ivanov, a leading analyst at the federal company Floors. — Many people worry that by the end of the year, banks may significantly reduce the approval of loans, and after the New Year holidays there is not much time left to coordinate the mortgage and find a suitable apartment.
As a result, the demand for apartments in new buildings is growing, followed by prices.
The updated conditions for a family mortgage will cut off some of those who want to get it, confirmed real estate expert Evgeny Tkachev.
— It is now known that from February 1, 2026, when applying for a family mortgage, both spouses will be required to participate in the same contract, and a ban on "donor mortgages" (involving a co-borrower. — Ed.) and refinancing of combined mortgages (a combination of market and preferential mortgages. — Ed.), — he said. — Since 2023, demand in the new building market has been unstable, and it increases when discussing changes in conditions in preferential mortgage programs.
According to Alexander Ivanov, while in Russia as a whole, the average cost per square meter in the primary housing market has not increased so significantly over the past month — by only 1.1% with an annual growth of 10.6%, in some megacities the monthly price increase exceeded 2%.
Krasnodar and Rostov-on-Don (2.6%), Krasnoyarsk and Samara (2.5%), and Volgograd (2.1%) were among the top five leaders in the growth of the average price per square meter in new buildings last month among the largest cities in Russia. St. Petersburg (1.9%), Omsk (1.7%), Moscow (1.5%), Novosibirsk (1.4%) and Kazan (1.3%) are also in the top ten.
"The last time such a significant increase in demand was noted was in the wake of the completion of the most massive mortgage with state support in July last year," added Denis Zhalnin, CEO of the People development company. — During such periods, the pool of apartments for sale is reduced, promotional and most affordable options are being bought up, and this leads to an increase in the average cost per square meter, which is what is happening on the market now.
Yaroslav Shein, Director of Economics at the federal developer Zhelezno, also confirmed the cost increase. According to him, additional reasons include an increase in the cost of projects and seasonality.
"The price increase could have been higher, but many developers limit the increase in prices in order to reduce the volume of unsold apartments both in ready—made facilities and in facilities with a high degree of readiness," he said.
Compared to December last year, Kazan (by 19.3%), Omsk (17.5%), Chelyabinsk (16.8%), Perm (16.5%) and Novosibirsk (14.5%) are the leaders in the growth of the average price per square meter of primary housing. Moscow, with an increase of 13.5% in the annual ranking of cities with a population of one million, was only in eighth place.
What are the prices for the "primary" in Moscow
In December 2025, sales growth in Moscow is expected to be 35-40% relative to the annual average, Pioneer analysts noted. The main drivers will be discounts from developers and the desire of buyers to have time to finalize a preferential mortgage deal before possible changes in conditions in 2026.
— In business class, sales will increase due to the "window of opportunity": to have time to rent an apartment before changes in mortgage conditions, — says Evgeniya Vinichenko, Director of pricing and analytics at the company. — In the premium class - due to attractive promotions, as well as withdrawal of money from deposits in conditions of lower interest rates.
The end of the year is traditionally characterized by an increase in the number of transactions, confirmed Ekaterina Levina, Whitewill's top broker.
"Some people are trying to resolve the housing issue before the end of the year — this is more of a psychological factor," she said. — Others receive annual bonuses that they invest in real estate.
In November, there was a 5% increase in the cost per square meter in massive new buildings in "old" Moscow, said Yaroslav Gutnov, founder of SIS Development. The indicator exceeded 400 thousand rubles for the first time. In New Moscow, the square meter has also significantly increased in price — by 9%, to 326 thousand rubles.
"Prices for new buildings are really growing faster than inflation now," Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium, confirmed. — Mass complexes are becoming more expensive especially rapidly. Such a significant upward correction occurs against the background of high consumer activity and exhaustion of supply.
The number of transactions under equity participation agreements in the Moscow Agglomeration increased by 30% in November. The main driver of the sharp increase in consumer activity is precisely the upcoming tightening of family mortgages, the expert pointed out.
— However, other factors also have an impact: a reduction in capitalization on deposits, the expectation of an increase in VAT. Of course, a surge in demand cannot but lead to higher prices," Ruslan Syrtsov said.
Family mortgages form a significant share of transactions, and the maximum comfort-class offer aimed at such an audience is concentrated in the Moscow region, said Alexey Artoshin, commercial director of Glavstroy Regions.
"Some of the buyers who previously watched Moscow are switching to the region, which supports the price level," he added. — In addition, due to the announced adjustments in the family mortgage, buyers began to make decisions faster, which explains the increase in demand and prices.
Will prices continue to rise
Family mortgages are the driver of the Russian market of new buildings: up to 80% of apartments in the mass segment today are purchased by buyers under this program, according to analysts at the real estate agency Best-Novostroy. And the changes introduced from February 1, 2026 will reduce the availability of this mechanism for families with one child, believes Stanislav Konovalov, a member of the board of directors of Plateau Development.
"The decline in family mortgage activity next year looks more like a fait accompli, but not critical for the market as a whole, given the reduction in deposit rates and the fact that this money can be redistributed by our citizens in favor of investing in new buildings," the expert believes. — Nevertheless, given the sharply increased customer activity now, many Russians will still have time to purchase housing under current conditions.
The fourth quarter of the year is traditionally the most popular with customers, mainly December, said Vsn Group CEO Yana Glazunova.
"But do not forget that at the beginning of 2026, installment restrictions will also be introduced," the expert reminded. — On the other hand, the key interest rate is gradually decreasing, followed by the mortgage interest rate. For example, the Central Bank announced that the average key interest rate in 2026 will be at the level of 13-15. In this regard, an increasing number of buyers are starting to look towards mortgages on market conditions.
The reduction in the key rate has increased demand, Natalia Shatalina, CEO of the RedCat aggregator of new buildings, confirmed.
"The growth was also influenced by a reduction in supply volumes — the most liquid lots are being washed out of the market, volumes are shifting towards more expensive projects," she said. — Before the restrictions, we expect increased demand and a more pronounced increase in prices. In the first month or two after the restrictions are imposed, demand may decrease and prices may rise. Further, as the discount rate decreases, price growth will resume, and its dynamics will depend on the rate of reduction of the Central Bank.
The announcement of changes to the Family Mortgage program had a bombshell effect on the primary housing market, said Yanis Torokhov, an independent analyst, expert in management, marketing and law.
— Real estate is traditionally considered one of the most reliable assets, as a rule, demand is slightly revived in autumn and winter, — he said. — An increase in the cost of building materials, an increase in transportation costs and an increase in the cost of labor also affects the situation, which cannot but affect the final price per square meter.
In addition, an increase in the family mortgage rate to 12% is being discussed. In this case, 30% of current buyers fall into the unavailability zone, mainly families with one child — they make up up to 60% of all borrowers, Best-Novostroy added.
Due to changes in the compensation scheme and lower margins for banks, the initial payment on a family mortgage may rise to 40-50%, experts say. On the contrary, accessibility will increase by about 25% only for large families who plan to reduce the rate to 4%. But families with three or more children — a small group — will not be able to compensate for the general decline in the market.
"Raising the family mortgage rate to 12% or slightly less is not so fundamental, because everyone will feel the consequences of the reform,— said Irina Dobrokhotova, the company's founder.
The reduction in construction volumes will lead to a decrease in demand for materials, equipment and labor, which will directly affect related industries such as manufacturing, transport and logistics, the specialist concluded.
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