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- Credit peak: debts of other countries to Russia have reached their maximum since 1998
Credit peak: debts of other countries to Russia have reached their maximum since 1998
Last year, Russia significantly increased the amount of funds provided to foreign partners: according to estimates by RIA Novosti, based on World Bank statistics, the total amount of such commitments exceeded $33 billion. In 2024, their total volume increased by about $2.6 billion, reaching $33.1 billion. The last time a comparable level was recorded was back in 1998, when the debt owed to Moscow reached about $38 billion. How the increase in external loans affects Russia's economic and geopolitical position, as well as how the dynamics of external lending correlates with the country's domestic economic priorities— is described in the Izvestia article.
Strengthening positions
The explanatory note to the draft federal budget for 2026 emphasizes that the expansion of international lending is primarily necessary to complete programs that have already begun and fulfill Russia's obligations under existing interstate agreements, Vladislav Bukharsky, Associate director for sovereign and Regional Ratings at Expert RA agency, told Izvestia.
Additionally, such funds are considered as a mechanism to support the export of Russian industrial products in competitive industries. Simply put, this creates additional demand for domestic goods abroad and strengthens Russia's presence in foreign markets by developing specific niches.
"At the same time, this practice of external lending helps to strengthen long—term relations with partner countries, which over time has a positive effect on the country's geopolitical situation," the expert noted.
According to him, maintaining a balance between external credit initiatives and internal priorities is considered key, since the same financial resources could be directed to the development of social facilities, infrastructure and other national areas. It is important to keep in mind that such operations are repayable funds, which generate interest income. Thanks to the returns, the real volume of net external lending is several times less than the federal investments directed at internal tasks.
— Budget guidelines show that in the period from 2026 to 2028, Russia's external loan portfolio will continue to expand, which will lead to a further increase in foreign debt. The increase in amounts is due to the fact that new disbursements significantly exceed the expected payments for existing obligations. The increase in debts will amount to about $3.3 billion in 2026, about $4.0 billion in 2027 and about $3.8 billion in 2028, the expert said.
Changing the structure
On the economic side, external loans can support the development of the macro level if they are distributed rationally, Ekaterina Shveyeva, associate professor of the Department of Management and GMU at the Faculty of Economics and Management at MGUT Razumovsky, told Izvestia. During periods of recession, such resources help to mitigate the decline in aggregate demand and stabilize economic dynamics. However, excessive debt burden from the outside can create risks for the financial stability of the state. In particular, it reduces the potential for investment within the country and forces the redirection of part of the budget from social areas to service obligations.
"In the geopolitical context, international debts often turn into a pressure mechanism, and large obligations to external creditors can increase the borrower's political and economic dependence," she said. — Therefore, the impact of expanding lending on Russia's position in the global environment is determined by the quality of public debt management and the ability to control the risks associated with it.
Given the instability of the global economy, it is difficult to predict future changes in other countries' debts to Russia, the expert noted. Bangladesh (+ $1.2 billion), Egypt (+$815 million) and India (+ $799 million) recorded significant growth in liabilities. At the same time, positive developments were also observed: Belarus significantly reduced its debt to Russia, reducing it by about $125 million.
Continuing practice
The growth of foreign loans usually strengthens both Russia's economic position and its geopolitical influence, economist Maxim Chirkov confirmed in an interview with Izvestia. In fact, we are talking about supporting countries that are friendly to Russia. Such measures strengthen trust and form long-term constructive relationships. A similar practice was used during the Soviet period, when assistance to partners was used to expand the international presence. This is a traditional mechanism of interaction with the Union states.
From the point of view of domestic priorities, such a policy also fits into the interests of the country, the expert is sure. A significant part of external loans is provided not in the form of money transfers, but through the supply of Russian goods, services or equipment. Such schemes stimulate the utilization of domestic industry and support economic growth within the country. In addition, lending generates interest income, as many partner countries receive loans at relatively high rates.
"Sometimes Russia or earlier the USSR wrote off debts, but such decisions often strengthened strategic ties, which are important not only emotionally or politically, but also economically," he recalled. — Companies from Russia get the opportunity to work in the markets of friendly countries, earn and bring additional profits to the Russian budget and business. It also opens the way for investments for both large companies and individuals.
As for the further dynamics of other countries' debts to Russia, the total volume of liabilities is expected to increase, Maxim Chirkov confirmed. Russia has the economic resources to continue supporting its partners. The economy is showing resilience even with a high key interest rate, whereas in similar circumstances other countries could face a recession.
— As the key interest rate decreases, the growth rate may increase significantly, which will expand opportunities for foreign lending. Against this background, the debt owed by states to Russia is likely to continue to increase, as the country seeks to strengthen its influence and has the financial capacity to implement this policy," he stressed.
Izvestia sent a request to the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
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