Regime project: relations between Russia and Syria have been tested by the coup
December 8, 2025 marked one year since the regime change in Syria. The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad by the opposition led to a review by Damascus of the vector of relations with former allies, including Russia. Moscow has managed to preserve most of its former "diplomatic legacy," but its mediation role in the Syrian conflict is increasingly being challenged by the United States. However, the Russian Federation has a chance to convert this competition into political points.
The momentum of interaction remains
Contrary to the estimates of the pessimists, who predicted the freezing of the Russian-Syrian dialogue, contacts between Moscow and Damascus remained at the same level. The new authorities did not go on a public break (as was done, for example, with Iran), limiting themselves to several months of "internal audit" of agreements with Moscow. Despite the fact that most of the Russian-Syrian agreements signed during the Assad regime are still frozen, not a single significant agreement has been denounced.
Moscow has also maintained a military presence in Syria, including control over the Khmeimim airbase and the naval logistics center in Tartus; resumed systematic patrols of the southern provinces and expanded auxiliary infrastructure in the northeast. Moreover, in October 2025, the first personal meeting of the leaders of the two countries took place, during which the President of the transitional period, Ahmed al-Sharaa, noted that Syria had "established calm relations with Russia" after the coup and the dialogue in the security sector would continue.
The Russian side also broadcasts optimistic assessments. As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin stressed earlier, "Moscow highly appreciates contacts with the Damascus authorities and intends to only increase their volume in the future."
Problems remain
Of course, relations between Moscow and Damascus, even with the remaining positive momentum, cannot be called cloudless. The new authorities are conducting an audit of the agreements extremely slowly, weighing the expediency of each agreement, including from the position of replacing Moscow with another counterparty.
In addition, there are occasional accusatory notes in the comments of members of the transitional government (aimed at an internal audience), especially when it comes to Moscow's actions during the march of the armed opposition on Damascus in November—December 2024. However, these accusations are quickly extinguished — and by the Syrian side. Al-Sharaa's office broadcasts the position that Russia in Syria was not fighting the opposition, but the terrorist underground (with which the "new Damascus" is also at war), while adhering to the principles of humanity and mercy to the enemy.
Syria is still facing internal challenges, most of which have arisen due to the reactive decisions of the new leadership. Ethnic and confessional tensions have the greatest impact on stability. Damascus has not found an approach to interaction with the Kurdish and Druze communities, nor has it worked out a formula for their integration into the country's system of state institutions. Security guarantees have not been given to ethnic and religious minorities, especially Alawites, who have been victims of pogroms at least several times over the past year.
Tensions in the border areas are stimulating Israel's military expansion. He positions the advance deep into Syrian territory as a "proactive defense" designed to protect the borders of the Jewish state from the penetration of undesirable elements. The Syrian government hopes that Moscow will be able to influence Israel and keep it from expanding the "buffer zone", as well as distract from the idea of creating an extensive demilitarized zone in the border area. Moreover, previous attempts by Damascus to influence West Jerusalem through the United States and EU countries have failed.
Maxim Nosenko, an expert on Middle East security, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the new Syrian government is trying to take into account the experience and mistakes of its predecessors by creating a flexible model of relations with the most significant powers. Especially with those whose contribution to regional security stands out.
— Russia is a unique mediator that has maintained (and continues to maintain) contacts with all players in the region, therefore it can act as the most flexible mediator. This includes helping to establish a dialogue between Damascus and ethnic and religious minorities and develop a mechanism to guarantee security to local communities," Nosenko stressed.
The United States aspires to the role of the main mediator
As the transitional regime in Syria gradually stabilizes, the interest of external partners in establishing relations with Damascus is growing. The United States is showing the greatest zeal, having previously made a significant contribution to strengthening the Syrian power vertical, and also provided President al-Sharaa with support in challenging most of the international sanctions against Syria. In addition, Washington continues to participate in anti-terrorist operations in Syria, including exchanging intelligence with Damascus.
Despite the fact that in the updated US National Security Strategy published in early December 2025, the Middle East lost its status as a "priority region", the focus on its individual areas (including Syria) remained. The Americans aim to continue participating in the settlement of the Syrian crisis within the framework of Donald Trump's "peacekeeping vision." This includes using the combined potential of our closest regional partners to achieve this goal. "With the support of America, Arab countries, Israel and Turkey, it [Syria] can stabilize and regain its rightful place as an integral and constructive player in the region," the document says.
The maximum task for the United States is to ensure the inclusion of Damascus in the framework of the "Abraham Agreements", to ensure the formation of a tactical alliance between Syria and Israel; to orient them towards jointly countering the terrorist threat and thereby oust Moscow from the local security system, weakening Russia's influence on the course of the new Syrian government.
For the United States, maintaining the role of "chief peacemaker" in Syria is a matter of high priority. And Trump and the team approach this task without hesitation, political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev noted in an interview with Izvestia.
At the same time, according to the expert, Washington's current strategy has at least one obvious vulnerability.
— It remains unclear whether the United States will be able to maintain the conditional "mutual neutrality" between Syria and Israel, the main ally of the United States in the Middle East. There is no rapprochement on sensitive regional security issues between Damascus and Tel Aviv, despite the efforts of American diplomats, Tokoldoshev concluded.
Stay at the UN level
Despite the fact that the rivalry for mediating influence in Syria between Moscow and Washington will only grow in the future, Russia has a chance to divert the conflict to another plane, completely leveling its potential. In particular, to strengthen efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis through the United Nations. The first step in this direction has already been taken — on December 5, a delegation of special representatives of the UN Security Council member countries went on a "Middle East tour"; visited Lebanon and then Syria to get acquainted with the realities of the conflict "on the ground."
"One of the main objectives of the working trip to the region is to reconfirm the commitment of the Security Council members to the stability of Lebanon and Syria, as well as to support the sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of the aforementioned countries. In addition, the Security Council mission will provide an opportunity to get acquainted with the security and political situation in the Arab republics," said Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations.
The bet on the Security Council is not accidental: the views on the vector of resolving the situation in Syria still fundamentally coincide among all its permanent members. Moscow and Washington are able to quickly work out a compromise formula, thereby balancing their influence in the Syrian direction. And at the same time retaining the opportunity to resolve controversial issues one-on-one.
Shifting the focus of mediation efforts from individual countries to the United Nations will also be useful for Damascus. This will allow the Transitional Government to conduct a multi-vector dialogue on resolving the situation with all interested parties at once (without dividing them by their level of influence) and, as a result, to build a more flexible foreign policy course.
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