The Northern Confluence: NATO is working out military scenarios near Russia's borders

The Northern Axe 25 joint exercises with Britain are coming to an end in Finland on November 5. At the Vuosanka training ground, just 70 km from the border with Karelia, about 3,000 military personnel practiced, among other things, offensive tactics and night combat in northern latitudes. According to experts, such maneuvers reflect NATO's strategic course towards strengthening the northeastern flank and preparing for possible conflict scenarios with Moscow. This explains, among other things, the increase in the number of exercises in which Finland is involved — this week alone, the country hosted participants in four different maneuvers of the alliance.

NATO exercises near Russia's borders

On December 5, the Northern Axe 25 ("Northern Axe 25") NATO exercises end in the Finnish region of Kainuu. The maneuvers took place during the week at the Vuosanka training ground, just 70 km from the border with Karelia. They were attended by about 3,000 representatives of the Finnish Armed Forces, including conscripts and reservists, as well as about 70 British military personnel. About 600 pieces of equipment were involved, including tanks and NH90 transport helicopters. Drones were also actively used.

"The purpose of the exercises is to practice the skills of defense, deterrence, offensive and night combat in the difficult conditions of northern Finland. The main focus of the exercises is on the interaction of various branches of the armed forces," the press service of the country's Defense Ministry reported.

The scenario is fully consistent with the NATO doctrine of containing Russia on the northeastern flank, where the key factor is the adaptation of troops to Arctic conditions, military expert Yuri Lyamin believes.

— The choice of the Vuosanka landfill, located near the border with Karelia, is not accidental. This is a strategically important area, which, according to the alliance, may become one of the possible war zones. The scale of the maneuvers confirms NATO's desire to work out scenarios close to real threats, taking into account climatic and geographical conditions," the expert told Izvestia.

According to him, Finland, which joined NATO in 2023, is actively integrating its armed forces into the overall system of the alliance. Such maneuvers make it possible to increase the compatibility of units and strengthen the operational readiness of the unit in the northern latitudes.

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Large-scale naval maneuvers in Finland began immediately after the completion of artillery firing there.

At the same time, according to military expert Viktor Litovkin, the number of participants in these particular exercises — about 3,000 people — does not pose a serious military threat: in fact, we are talking about only two rifle regiments.

—And the participation of the British contingent of 70 people in the Finnish exercises is more symbolic than military," he believes. — It is important for London to show its allies its readiness to cooperate in the Northern European region and demonstrate its presence near the Russian borders. This is more of a political signal than an attempt to build up a real strike potential.

However, each such exercise inevitably raises tensions near the Russian borders and requires Moscow's attention, Litovkin stated.

A series of NATO exercises in Finland

Northern Axe 25 is not the only NATO military exercise held in Finland this week.

In parallel, about 5,000 military personnel and 20 ships from 10 countries participated in the Freezing Winds 25 naval maneuvers in the Baltic Sea and on the southern coast of the country. They lasted from November 24 to December 4. Their goal was formulated as ensuring the security of critical maritime infrastructure and communications, as well as repelling alleged amphibious attacks on the coast and in the island zone.

On Wednesday, December 3, Lapland Steel 25 began at the Rowayarvi training ground in Lapland, where 1.2 thousand troops from Finland, Great Britain and Sweden are training to operate in early winter conditions.

And on December 4, Lively Sentry 25 started with the participation of 6.5 thousand people and about 900 pieces of equipment — from armored vehicles and helicopters to drones. Some episodes of the exercises take place in the Kymenlaakso region bordering Russia.

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Such a high intensity of maneuvers indicates that the northeastern flank of NATO is becoming one of the main areas of the alliance's attention, military expert Vadim Kozyulin believes.

— Finland is being used as a new platform for testing logistics and deploying troops near Russia. At the same time, transport infrastructure in Europe is being modernized: bridges, railways and highways to ensure the unhindered movement of heavy military equipment. This is called a military Schengen," he explained.

According to the expert, the scenarios being worked out include not only defensive operations, but also potential offensive actions, including in the direction of St. Petersburg.

Russia, in turn, is strengthening the defensive potential of the Kola Peninsula, where strategic nuclear forces and the Northern Fleet are concentrated. This, the expert noted, reflects Moscow's willingness to respond to an increase in NATO activity on the northwestern borders.