Forecasters predicted a mild and warm winter in St. Petersburg

The current winter in St. Petersburg is expected to be mild, with positive temperature anomalies relative to the climatic norm. The forecast for the season as a whole indicates the continuation of a steady upward trend in average temperatures, especially in the winter months. This was reported by the Delovoy Peterburg newspaper on December 4.

However, according to experts, the winter of 2025-2026 will be slightly colder than the record warm winter of the previous period.

According to the Federal State Budgetary Budgetary Institution "North-Western UGMS" of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service, the most significant increase in the average monthly air temperature in recent climatic periods occurred precisely in the winter months — by 1.9...3.0 degrees. Statistics show that winter temperatures in St. Petersburg are rising at a rate of 0.57 degrees over 10 years, which exceeds the average rate of warming in other seasons.

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"When making responsible decisions, it is worth focusing primarily on the forecast for up to three days. Unfortunately, we do not have reliable forecasting methods for longer periods," said Artyom Pavlovsky, Acting Head of the Department of Climatology and Environmental Monitoring at the Institute of Earth Sciences of St. Petersburg State University.

The agency also emphasizes that, despite the general trend, accurate long-term forecasting of temperature extremes remains a difficult scientific task due to a variety of dynamic factors. The forecast for the heating period, issued by the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, is probabilistic in nature and is further refined by monthly forecasts.

The climatic features of St. Petersburg, associated with the influence of cyclones from the Atlantic and the Arctic, cause significant short-term temperature fluctuations, which can reach 20 degrees during the day. These fluctuations, along with high humidity and wind, create harsher subjective feelings about the weather compared to Moscow, despite the close annual average temperatures.

Data analysis shows that extremely low temperatures in the region are becoming less frequent. In the 21st century, the air temperature in St. Petersburg dropped below -25 degrees only 16 times, and 12 of these cases occurred in the first decade.

Mikhail Leus, a leading specialist at the Phobos Weather Center, said on November 29 that stable snow cover would form in Moscow no earlier than mid-December. The amount of precipitation in the coming month is expected to be close to normal or even missing by about 10%.

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