The volume of residential real estate commissioning in Russia may decrease to 41 million square meters. m

The volume of apartment building commissioning in Russia next year may decrease to 41 million square meters. At the same time, the postponement of commissioning for future years will reach a historic maximum of 16.2 million square meters. Such conclusions are contained in the study "Trends in the development market: a new normality", presented by experts from Yakov and Partners and the Unified Resource of Developers (ERZ.RF). The document is at the disposal of Izvestia.

According to analysts, the main challenges for the industry will be high financial costs, continued growth in construction costs and rationalization of consumer demand.

"The Russian development market is entering a new phase of maturity. The old model of "take more land, get documentation, get everything out and build faster" has stopped working. In the new reality, the most effective ones survive: those who accurately manage the liquidity, marginality of projects and queues, do not build unrealistic illusions about sales forecasts and rates, but live in the current conditions," the document says.

Among the five strategies that will help developers survive, analysts identify: optimization of the land bank; optimization of the development scenario — shorter cycle, fewer queues; transformation of the sales model — the sales function should work on margin; standardization of design solutions and thereby reducing design time and cost reduction.

"The new building market is facing a paradigm shift: the era of cheap lending and high demand is over. Under the new conditions, project margins barely reach 5-10%, and project financing rates have increased to 10.8%, which significantly exceeds industry profitability. In these circumstances, it is critically important for developers to restructure their business models, shifting the focus from volume to financial stability and operational efficiency," said Ayman El Hashem, an expert partner at Yakov & Partners.

According to experts, the industry is currently experiencing double pressure from both the demand and supply sides. In 2025, the average project financing rate increased from 9.4% to 10.8%, and debt coverage on escrow accounts decreased. Banks have increased discipline by tightening requirements to the terms of contracts.

As a result of the growing difficulties with developers obtaining financing and rising financial costs, there will be an almost twofold reduction in real estate investment in 2025, experts say. Nevertheless, large companies with proven transparency and high standards of corporate governance remain competitive in the market.

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Analysts of the Grad Development development company said on December 2 that premium-class new buildings in Moscow are actively growing upward. It was clarified that in three years the average number of floors in this segment increased by 35%, while in the old Moscow market as a whole, the figure increased by only 3%. At the same time, the main volume of supply on the market is still concentrated in the range from the 2nd to the 25th floor. New buildings in the high—budget segment have also grown significantly, with an average number of floors increasing by 21%, from 8.6 to 10.4 floors.

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