The end of the world: what was the price of "energy independence" for Lithuania
In less than a year, Lithuania has gone from leaving the BRELL energy ring to a program to provide residents with emergency generators. The reliability of the power supply dropped sharply, and blackouts began to occur one after another. As a result, on the one hand, the Lithuanian authorities are telling the population to celebrate the country's withdrawal from the BRELL as a national holiday, on the other, they actually recognize that power outages will occur more often. The details are in the Izvestia article.
A year of outages
On February 9 of this year, the Baltic States solemnly withdrew from the BRELL energy connection (Belarus-Russia-Estonia-Lithuania-Latvia), which had been in operation for many years. And although the Balts refused to buy electricity in Russia back in the spring of 2022, their involvement in BRALL still allowed them to maintain the stability of their energy systems. And after BRELL ceased to exist, blackouts became more frequent in the Baltic States. It is enough to provide information only about those incidents of this kind that happened very recently, last fall. In Estonia, during November, more than 2,800 households in Rakvere were left without electricity, followed by over a thousand consumers in Tallinn.
In Lithuania, in October, blackouts took place twice in different districts of Vilnius — Baltupiai, Sheshkine, Pashilaichai and Bayorai. In total, over twenty thousand people were left without electricity. And on November 26, more than three thousand residents of two more Vilnius districts, Nizhny Paneriai and Salininkai, found themselves without electricity. Traffic lights stopped working at some intersections; trolleybuses stopped, frozen with their emergency lights on. Experts explained the emergency with "breakdowns in the contact network." The Energijos skirstymo operatorius (ESO) service company reported that emergency generators had to be urgently transported there to quickly restore power supply on some streets.
However, despite all these incidents, the government is building a cult of another "great victory", which is understood as a way out of the BRELL. In order to "squeeze" this "victory" dry, the Lithuanian media did not forget to triumphantly report on the rapid dismantling of the power lines that once connected the country with Russia and Belarus. There was also an approving pat on the shoulder from the "big uncles". Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), praises Lithuania: "In 2021, Lithuania's total energy imports from Russia amounted to almost three billion dollars, which is about five percent of GDP, including oil, gas, electricity, and even some coal. And today this figure is zero. This is a huge achievement. To achieve such a result in such a short time with limited opportunities is a great achievement."
Birol, who visited Vilnius for the first time in July, stressed that the synchronization of the Baltic states' energy systems, "which took place in early February, is perceived in many countries as an engineering achievement," however, according to the head of the IEA, "it also has great political significance." Starting next year, Lithuania will celebrate the Energy Independence Day of the Baltic States every February 9th. As Vilnius keeps reminding us, the victory in the struggle for "energy independence" was fought on different fronts — for example, Lithuania once did everything in its power to disrupt the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant, and when it failed, persuaded the rest of the Baltic states not to buy electricity from it.
Blame "global warming"
The cost of electricity in Lithuania at some points was several times higher than the prices of previous years. The problem lies not only in the unreliable energy connection with Poland and Sweden, but also in the fact that the Baltic countries purchase a significant part of their electricity on the Nord Pool exchange, where prices are constantly "floating". In this regard, price spikes occur, for which the consumer often has to pay.
So, in Lithuania at the end of the summer, the price of electricity jumped by as much as 70% for a while. Another jump took place in early October, by 50%. Those consumers who are tied to price fluctuations have long been advised to monitor them — and when they reach their peak, drastically reduce energy consumption, leaving only the most necessary. The new price increase was brought by the cold weather, which hit the country in November by 19%. And from January 1, 2026, new tariffs will begin to operate in the country for those consumers who have adopted a fixed rate, these are the clients of the Ignitis state—owned enterprise. Their most popular plan is "Standard": according to it, one kilowatt-hour of electricity will cost €0.22 — 1.5 euro cents more expensive than in the second quarter of 2025.
However, the main problem is not so much the prices as the stability of the energy supply. Currently, Lithuanian media are urging citizens to prepare for the possibility of prolonged lack of electricity. The other day, the project "Together in Safety" was launched, designed to morally set up Lithuanians for long-term living in such conditions. As part of this project, a map of the location of emergency power generators will be created for residents of towns and villages to create a "reliable safety network." All private individuals who have their own generator and who are willing to share it with others at a critical moment can participate in the initiative. Agne Domarkene, a representative of Energijos skirstymo operatorius, told: "It's (a power outage. — Ed.) can happen in several cases. During natural events, such as storms, strong winds, and snowfall. Under such conditions, tree branches break: they can break wires, demolish supports. In this case, residents remain without electricity until a team arrives and eliminates the consequences of the disaster."
Domarkene said that at the moment ESO has already bought two hundred household generators, which are distributed in eight regions of the Republic of Lithuania: they are allocated to residents who are temporarily left without electricity. "Of course, in the event of a natural disaster, two hundred generators will not be enough, so ESO is working closely with local governments. Municipalities and social workers know the people who need help the most: families with young children, single pensioners..." she explained. According to her, if necessary, ESO will bring the generators within a few hours. It is stipulated that municipalities must sign contracts with ESO in order to use these generators.
Media journalists serving the Lithuanian state took over the coverage of the "Together in Safety" initiative. At the same time, they are very adept at avoiding the pressing question — how did it happen that the reliability of energy supply in Lithuania has sharply decreased since this year? It is impossible to admit that this happened because of the country's withdrawal from the BRELL - such confessions border on high treason. We have to blame everything solely on natural disasters, on branches that fall on power lines under the weight of snow, damaging them. All this is true, but previously such accidents did not lead to a prolonged power outage — backup power was quickly supplied to the emergency site. Now that BRELL is gone, dealing with the consequences of accidents has begun to take much longer than before.
Part of the bigger picture
At the same time, the initiative to supply Lithuanians with electric generators should be viewed from a different angle — it is part of the moral preparation of the population for military operations. Last spring, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense reported that from last year to the end of the first quarter of this year, 190,000 Lithuanian residents (the total population of the republic is 2.6 million people) had already completed courses on "civil resistance and resilience." These courses (they received the unambiguous name "X-Day Preparation Courses") were announced in 2023, and last year they started working. These courses consist of three main modules — "basic" (8 hours of training), "resilience to hybrid threats" (8 hours) and "civil resistance" (8-9 hours). Both regular military personnel and members of the "Union of Shooters" are involved as instructors, as is the name of the Lithuanian territorial militia, which is recruited on a voluntary basis.
In addition, in November 2024, the Ministry of Defense opened courses for schoolchildren on piloting unmanned aerial vehicles. It is expected that by 2027-2028, clubs will appear in all Lithuanian counties where children will be given relevant knowledge. In April and May 2025, free eight-hour courses were organized for employees of forty large Lithuanian companies: they are taught "unarmed resistance", survival skills in extreme situations and first aid, cybersecurity and "recognition of disinformation."
A year ago, the Sejm approved the introduction of universal military service. According to the new law, graduates of schools will be called up for military service. Young men between the ages of 18 and 22 are subject to compulsory conscription for nine months. At the same time, future recruits will not be able to enroll in universities until they complete their service. These amendments will come into force in 2026, and this year future recruits began to undergo mass medical examinations. In the meantime, a total of 3,800 young people selected by lottery will be called up for service in 2025. Starting in 2027, more than 6,000 people are expected to be recruited for compulsory military service annually.
Political scientist Maxim Reva told Izvestia that training Lithuanians in living conditions without centralized energy supply is part of the Lithuanian state's efforts to militarize the country. This does not mean that the authorities absolutely believe in the possibility of military operations in Lithuania, but the morally mobilized population is easier to manage. It is easier to respond to complaints about the falling standard of living — what kind of standard of living can we talk about if the enemy is on the doorstep and can attack any day? It is possible to exist in such a regime for a very long time, and the government continues to follow the path of further tightening the screws.
According to Reva, the "triumphant absurdity" has now triumphed in the Baltic states — when any economic ties with Russia and Belarus are declared an absolute evil. "It is enough to recall the discussions currently underway in Latvia on whether it is necessary to dismantle the railway tracks leading to Russia. According to this logic, the Balts could not abandon BRALL — in their world it is an axiom. And now anyone who dares to say out loud that "energy independence" is too expensive risks immediately being branded a traitor. So emergency generators will remain an urgent necessity for Lithuanians for many more years. Because blackouts will happen in the Baltics over and over again," Maxim Reva concludes.
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