Mutual production: trade between Russia and the EU in the first half of 2025 fell to 30.9 billion euros

The trade turnover between Russia and the European Union is reaching a historic low. Mutual trade from January to June of this year decreased to 30.9 billion euros, having decreased by 8.3% compared to the same period in 2024, the Permanent Mission of Russia to the European Union told Izvestia. The reason for this is the policy of EU sanctions against Russia, the rejection of Russian energy resources and the introduction of new customs tariffs against Moscow. Since the beginning of the Free Trade period, the bilateral trade turnover has decreased by 74%, the diplomats noted. At the same time, Russia is successfully establishing foreign trade with friendly countries and learning how to work with European restrictions with the help of partners, in particular in the CIS, experts say.

Decrease in trade turnover between Russia and the EU

EU sanctions have failed to crush the Russian economy and change the situation on the battlefield in favor of Ukraine. At the same time, they have nullified almost all trade relations between the countries of the region and the Russian Federation. The Russian Permanent Mission to the European Union states that Brussels has not only frozen bilateral political dialogue and sectoral cooperation, but also continues its efforts to completely destroy the foundation of relations that have been built for decades.

— According to the latest data from the statistical service of the European Union (Eurostat), the dynamics of Russia–EU trade in the first half of 2025 was negative. The EU-Russian trade turnover in six months decreased by 8.3% compared to the same period in 2024, from €33.7 billion to €30.9 billion, the Russian diplomatic mission told Izvestia.

They clarified: from January to June 2025, imports of Russian products to the EU amounted to €16.1 billion, a decrease of 10.5%, and exports of European goods to Russia amounted to €14.8 billion (a decrease of 5.7%). At the same time, the total trade turnover between Russia and the European Union in 2022-2024 decreased by 74% — from €257.5 billion to €67.7 billion.

— This was the result of EU anti-Russian sanctions, including bans on the supply of Russian oil and petroleum products, restrictions on gas supplies, as well as quasi-sanctioned EU tariff measures providing for increased duties on imports of certain types of Russian goods. A qualified majority of the votes of the EU member states is sufficient to adopt such quasi–sanctioning measures, unlike traditional packages of restrictions requiring consensus," the Russian Permanent Mission to the EU noted.

According to his staff, European officials use this bureaucratic loophole to overcome the veto of union members who do not support Brussels' trade and economic restrictions against Russia, since such measures harm their national economies.

For example, the EU introduced new tariffs on agricultural products and some fertilizers from Russia and Belarus in July this year. In 2023, fertilizer imports from the Russian Federation accounted for more than 25% of the total EU purchases in this sector. European farmers sounded the alarm back in the spring, warning that an increase in duties by 40-45 euros per ton would lead to higher costs and, as a result, negatively affect the incomes of agricultural producers and the competitiveness of final products. Against this background, food prices are rising in the EU. The Baltic states, Slovakia, and Croatia were particularly affected by the increase in energy and fertilizer prices.

"They refuse to admit that the main victims of thoughtless anti—Russian actions, including sanctions, are the European Union itself, its economy and financial system, and, of course, ordinary European citizens, whose welfare is easily neglected by bureaucrats from Brussels in the name of their own opportunistic political ambitions," the Russian permanent mission noted.

Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recalls that for many years the EU's competitiveness has largely relied on relatively cheap energy resources from Russia.

— In general, the increasing number of restrictions and falling trade volumes contribute to maintaining fairly high energy prices in the EU, despite the fact that the main inflationary wave occurred in 2022-2023. I would not say that the restriction of energy imports from Russia is a key negative factor for the EU economy. But in the context of the systemic crisis in which the association found itself, this is a significant moment that aggravated the overall situation," the analyst told Izvestia.

The expert draws attention to the fact that the effects of the crisis and the decline in trade are uneven, both within and between EU countries. For example, since the introduction of the first mutual restrictions in 2014-2015, the Baltic states and Finland, which are neighboring the Russian Federation, have suffered the most.

— Within countries, the energy crisis has had a serious impact on households and utility prices. The effects are also uneven for individual producers of goods in different EU countries," said Egor Sergeev.

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Diversification of Russia's foreign trade

Two years ago, Russia was on the list of the 10 largest trading partners of the European Union. By the end of 2024, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy were still trading with Russia. In addition, Hungary and Slovakia remained important partners, actively importing gas and oil from our country. Belgium, Spain, and France remained the leaders in importing certain categories of goods from the Russian Federation — liquefied natural gas.

Currently, Russia occupies the 16th position among the EU's trading partners in terms of mutual trade turnover, Russian diplomats say. After the start of its operation, Moscow turned into a direct competitor in the eyes of Brussels. The European Union has severed all political ties with Russia.

"As of today, there are no political contacts between the Russian Federation and the EU," the Russian Permanent Mission to the EU said. — Brussels, which has been living in confrontation with our country for a year, does not consider any constructive alternative in the Russian direction. The EU leaders insist that the goal of such a course is to weaken our country in all areas, including the economy and foreign policy, and inflict a "strategic defeat" on Russia.

However, the expert community notes that the so—called decoupling is currently taking place in the global economy - a decrease in economic ties between competing players for geopolitical reasons.

— More often they talk about decoupling in the US–China relations, which is really significant in absolute terms. But in terms of the relative indicators of the affected industries and spheres, as well as the speed of decoupling, the EU–Russia is one of the significant factors in the transformation of the global economy," says Egor Sergeev.

The Russian Federation has learned how to work with European export restrictions at the expense of "transit" countries such as the Central Asian states. According to Yegor Sergeev, Russia implements a completely standard practice for states in a state of acute conflict: it reduces mutual trade and uses the services of intermediaries.

Meanwhile, Moscow has seriously diversified its trade relations in recent years. According to the Federal Customs Service, the five largest foreign trade partners of the Russian Federation include China, Turkey, India, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In pre-sanctions 2021, the top 5 were as follows: China (18.3%), Germany (7.4%), the Netherlands (5%), Belarus (5%), the United States (4.2%). Turkey was in sixth place, India was not in the top 10.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in July that the share of friendly countries in Russia's foreign trade had increased from 46% to 82% over the past three years. These countries now account for more than 85% of exports. As for oil and gas, which are being abandoned in the EU, the Russian Federation has reoriented their trade to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. According to Novak, the Asia-Pacific region's share in oil exports exceeds 80%. In 2024, a third of the Russian gas exports were sold to the region.