Middle Eastern Borodino: what has changed in relations between Iran and Israel after the Twelve-Day War

Six months have passed since the beginning of the Twelve-day War between Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran. After all this time, opinions about the outcome of the conflict are diametrically opposed. In Israel, the country that initiated the war, they say that the combat missions were completed in full. The Iranian nuclear program has been destroyed, and the enemy's military and political potential has been abandoned for many decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared "Israel's victory." The opposite situation is in Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the United States and Israel "left empty-handed." The results of the wars should be summed up after some time. Izvestia tried to understand the difficult outcome of the Iran-Israel war and the future of this bloody and dramatic confrontation.

A complicated story

On the eve of six months after the end of the Twelve-Day War, after a long silence, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on its results. Speaking about the 12-day war with Israel and the United States, he said: "In the 12-day war, the Iranian people undoubtedly won over both America and the Zionist regime (as Iran officially calls Israel. — Izvestia). They came and did evil, but were defeated and returned empty-handed, without achieving any of their goals." The politician, however, noted the "painful losses" suffered by Tehran. The Iranian leader described the current US authorities as "warmongers," saying Washington was "unworthy" of negotiating with Tehran.

Meanwhile, the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, noted that the Iranian nuclear program has been destroyed. In response, Khamenei stated: "Keep dreaming." The politician also noted that "the enemies failed to deceive the Iranian people and subjugate them," referring to attempts to launch regime change processes. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "We have destroyed Iran's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program."… We eliminated what posed an existential threat to Israel," the politician said, thanking President Donald Trump for "decisive actions" during the joint operation to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities.

On June 13-24, 2025, one of the most intense and high-tech conflicts of our time took place between Iran, on the one hand, and Israel and the United States, on the other.

The feud between the two countries began in the early 1980s, immediately after the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The new revolutionary and ambitious regime began to look for a new enemy, which became the Jewish state, which already had problems with international law and forcibly held and occupied a number of territories of neighboring Muslim countries and Palestinian territories. Iran, aspiring to become the leader of the Islamic world, has begun an active policy to protect Palestinians who have been harshly treated by Israel. Over time, the relationship escalated and turned into a full-fledged confrontation and a cold war. The Jewish state accused Tehran of trying to obtain nuclear weapons and noted the aggressiveness of the "Ayatollah regime", which, in their opinion, wants to destroy Israel. After the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which followed the brutal October terrorist attack in Israel against civilians, relations became an absolute zero-sum game. Iran has accused Israel of genocide against Muslim Palestinians, and Jerusalem has accused Tehran of supporting terrorism.

Israel and the United States have launched large-scale strikes against Iran's nuclear program, military targets, and IRGC infrastructure, while Iran has responded with massive missile and drone attacks on Israeli military targets. Both sides deliberately avoided full-scale escalation, acting within limited limits. As a result, the conflict did not lead to a strategic turning point, contradictions between the countries persisted, and the region remains tense and unstable. The war began with a series of well-organized sabotage operations against the top leadership of the Iranian military and scientists. Israel, with American support, managed to eliminate a significant number of high-ranking Iranians. Further, the Israeli Air Force, consisting of the latest American fighter jets, carried out precise strikes on Iranian targets.

Israel's air superiority has become apparent. The Iranian missile defense and air defense systems were either destroyed or out of order. Iranian cities and military installations have suffered greatly during the conflict. Tehran, in turn, carried out massive attacks with its ballistic missiles on the territory of Israel, which caused significant damage to the Jewish state. At the same time, the Iranian missiles, despite everything, managed to pass Israel's multilevel defense systems. And he was supported by numerous regional states and the military infrastructure of the United States and Western countries in the region.

Unclear results, vague future

The understatement and incomplete clarity about the outcome of the Iran-Israel confrontation remained in the minds of many observers in various world capitals. Of course, many experts have been following such an important region and the conflict of such significant countries. Many of them also note a vague uncertainty.

Andrey Baklanov, head of the Middle East and North Africa Section of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at the Faculty of World Economics and World Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, former Russian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the Twelve-Day War was very specific in nature: both sides showed a certain degree of military violence and did not seek to go beyond certain limits.

— The parties did not want a large-scale clash. Initially, the goals and objectives of the conflict were not very clear, so it is difficult to judge the result. On the one hand, no one has achieved a full result, on the other, no point has been reached on any issue that divides the parties. The contradictions remained. There is no negotiation process, so there is reason to believe that everything can resume again. I would say that this war is an episode of the protracted confrontation between Israel and Iran," the expert said.

Georgy Asatryan, Deputy Director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, Associate Professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, agrees with Andrey Baklanov. The expert noted in an interview with Izvestia that the Iran-Israel war is one of those where it is difficult to determine the obvious winner and the defeated. According to the expert, both countries have suffered quite significant damage, demonstrated their weaknesses and strengths.

— It seems to be a kind of "Middle Eastern Borodino," if you will. Historians are still debating who won the battle. Iran has managed to hold out. This is the key outcome of this conflict. The military operation of Israel and the United States has been preparing for decades. This was announced at the official level. Israel, in fact, has used all possible methods and means, except, perhaps, nuclear ones. However, he failed to change the "Ayatollah regime." It is difficult to draw any conclusions, but, apparently, the complete destruction of the nuclear program also did not take place. At the same time, Jerusalem has managed to significantly "thin out" the ranks of Iran's supreme military command, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the mainstay of the Iranian regime, and demonstrate a high level of special operations behind enemy lines. Air dominance has become an important trump card of the Israeli army," Asatryan said.

In short, the results of the Iran-Israel war cannot be called final. Apparently, a new conflict is inevitable and it is only a matter of time.