Analysts have assessed the demand for commercial real estate in Russia

The supply of commercial real estate in Russia has increased this year: in the sale segment — by 9%, in the rental segment — by 20%. Avito Real Estate analysts, who conducted market research from October 2024 to October 2025, told Izvestia.

According to analysts, positive dynamics is noted in all key categories: the choice of warehouses, offices, retail real estate, and free-use premises has increased.

Entrepreneurs are much more likely to choose to rent premises necessary for business than to purchase them. This trend is particularly pronounced in relation to warehouse and office real estate (89% of cases choose rent) and slightly less often — in premises for free use and for trade (77-78%).

In terms of demand for commercial real estate, there is a market adjustment this year relative to 2024, which was marked by record high demand. Against this background, there is a decrease in demand by 9% in the sales segment and by 14% in the rental segment.

Among the categories, the positive dynamics of demand in a broad sense is observed only in warehouse real estate and amounts to +3% of the national average for rent (for sale, the figures are similar to last year). At the same time, warehouses have become much more in demand in some large Russian cities. Sales increased by 31% in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, by 27% in the Perm Region, and by 22% in Moscow and the region. Moderate sales growth is also noticeable in Rostov (+6%), Tyumen (+2%) regions, Tatarstan (+1%). There is more interest in renting warehouses in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region (+9%), Samara (+5%), Rostov (+3%) and Novosibirsk (+2%) regions, Moscow and the region (+1%).

Some positive trends in demand for commercial real estate are observed in several other regions and market segments: Demand for renting coworking spaces has increased markedly in Russia (+24%), and to a small extent for buying hotels (+1%); sales of almost all key types of commercial real estate are growing in the capitals. Thus, in Moscow and the region, commercial real estate is purchased 25% more often than last year, warehouse real estate — by 22%, office real estate — by 17%, and vacant real estate — by 12%. In St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, purchases of warehouses increased by 31%, retail space by 17%, and vacant premises by 11%; Demand for vacant premises increased in Moscow and the region (+12%), St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region (+11%), and the Novosibirsk Region (+8%). Such real estate began to be rented more often in the capital region (+3%) and the Nizhny Novgorod region (+1%); More often than last year, they are interested in acquiring offices in Moscow and the region (+17%), as well as in the Perm Region (+13%).;

"The supply of commercial properties on the Russian market continues to grow, and the largest selection has increased in the categories of office, warehouse and industrial properties. Entrepreneurs are much more likely to rent business premises than to buy them. From the point of view of demand in both the sale and rental segment, we record a decrease — but it should be borne in mind that it is largely due to the effect of the high base of last year, which became a record volume of investment in real estate on the market. Even in these conditions, the growth is demonstrated by the metropolitan regions, as well as individual segments, including warehouse real estate," explained Oleg Izotov, Managing Director of the Commercial Real Estate category at Avito.

"Speaking of expectations for the future, we assume that the growth of facilities will continue in the first half of 2026 due to the postponement of the commissioning of some projects. As for demand, we expect that the first half of the coming year will show similar trends to the beginning of 2025, possibly with a slight correction. There may be a revival in the commercial real estate market in the second half of the year, but this will largely be due to the forecast and implementation of the Central Bank's key rate policy," adds the Avito Real Estate expert.

The results of the year in individual segments were also shared by leading companies in the field of office, warehouse and retail real estate. According to CMWP data, there is an increase in the volume of new construction of Prime, A and B class facilities in the Moscow office category: year-on-year growth of 11% in the first 11 months. The share of vacant space is also increasing: in November 2025, it was 4.9% (+1.1 percentage points compared to last year). The weighted average selling price in the capital decreased by 8% over the year and amounted to 400 thousand rubles per sq. m. At the same time, rent rose by 35% to 31.5 thousand rubles per sq.m. m per year.

According to Nikoliers, 2025 was a record year in terms of input volumes in the warehouse real estate segment in Russia, showing a 68% year-on-year trend and reaching 7,670 thousand square meters. m. This led to an increase in vacancy rates to 3.1% (+2.1 percentage points year-on-year) and stabilization of rental rates: it became cheaper to rent warehouses by 5-8% than a year ago, and current prices range from 9.3 to 11.8 thousand rubles per square meter. m per year.

The main demand for warehouse real estate is concentrated in the segments of online commerce (share: 34%), retail (23%), manufacturing (17%) and logistics (16%). Year-on-year, the most noticeable increase in interest in warehouses was among companies engaged in online commerce (+15-20%) and manufacturing (+3-4%). According to RRG, the retail real estate segment is under significant pressure from e-commerce. New business conditions make it critically important to adapt to the market: shopping and entertainment complexes are becoming multifunctional, rigid classification of objects is blurring, and commercial real estate competes with other investment instruments and platforms.

The share of commercial infrastructure is growing in the capital region: in some projects it has already reached 30%. Additionally, the metropolitan authorities are selling another 60-80 thousand square meters on the ground floors. Developers themselves are also changing their strategy towards commercial real estate. Previously, they preferred to sell everything, but now up to 30% of the space of the best product developers remains under internal management: sales to internal investors, participation in the selection of tenants and integrated management take place.

The ready-to—rent business (GAB) is actively developing: the supply of Avito Real Estate increased by 23% year—on—year (in St. Petersburg — by 57%, Moscow - by 30%, Tyumen Region - by 31%, Moscow Region and Krasnodar Territory - by 25% each). The demand for hubs in Russia increased by 6%, while in some regions the dynamics is more noticeable: in St. Petersburg over the year, the growth was 44%, in the Moscow region — 33%, in Moscow — 32%, in the Samara region — 22%. The most popular options are from 21 to 150 square meters, accounting for a total of 54% of the total demand. The key trends in this direction for the coming year, according to the Academy of Ready Rental Business, will be the development of small grocery retail formats with an area of 150-200 square meters, an increase in the share of hard discounters, darkstores and e-grocery, storerooms and multi-brand PVZ. To a large extent, this will happen due to the expansion of the geography of projects to small settlements with a population of up to 50 thousand people.

On November 20, Bulat Shakirov, managing director of the Ostrov Pervy Corporation development company, noted that commercial real estate could rise in price by 5-10% in 2026. According to him, so far there are no factors that the price increase next year will be some kind of avalanche. Shakirov added that the entire construction industry is currently waiting for a further reduction in the key rate.

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