Contractual phase: The EU will coordinate with the United States the lifting of sanctions against Russia

Lifting sanctions against Russia will require a consensus within the EU in coordination with the United States, the European Parliament told Izvestia. The timing and mechanism of the likely lifting of restrictions have not yet been determined, but such a clause is contained in both the American and European versions of the peace plan for Ukraine. At the same time, the European Union will retain the legal mechanism allowing restrictions to be imposed, and the lifting process itself may be sabotaged by individual EU member states opposed to normalization of relations with Moscow, experts say. About the realism of easing Western restrictions against the Russian Federation — in the material of Izvestia.

The issue of lifting sanctions

The Ukrainian settlement remains a central security issue in Europe. But progress on developing a unified approach has noticeably stalled after the intervention of European countries wishing to "finalize" Donald Trump's draft peace plan. One of the controversial issues was the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. The European Union states that easing restrictions is impossible without the consent of all EU member states. At the same time, we must not forget about our European allies, mainly the United States.

— Decisions on EU sanctions traditionally require unanimous adoption by the member states. At the same time, the EU continues to work closely with the United States and other international partners to maintain a unified and coordinated approach," Tomasz Zdechowski, a member of the European Parliament from the largest and leading European People's Party, told Izvestia.

At the same time, according to him, at this stage there is no clear time frame for easing restrictions.

— Any discussion of possible adjustments to sanctions can take place only after Russia completely stops its aggression, withdraws troops and undertakes to pay compensation to Ukraine. Until then, sanctions remain an important instrument of pressure," the MP added.

This approach completely contradicts the Russian position — Moscow launched its military in 2022 to protect the residents of Donbass, who have been attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2014. Then the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions became part of the Russian Federation after referendums. Western countries did not recognize the results of the vote.

The existence of the US peace plan became known for the first time on November 19 from leaks in the Western media. The document has 28 paragraphs and is conditionally divided into four sections: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and Russia's future relations with the United States and the international community. It talks about the "gradual" lifting of sanctions against Russia.

Vladimir Putin previously admitted that Russia had received a 28-point draft plan from the United States. The Kremlin said that the proposals in the version that Russia has reviewed can be used as the basis for a final peaceful settlement.

However, the EU reacted to the US plan with hostility, calling it a capitulation. Soon, the European plan was published in the media, which indicates that the easing of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon "in stages and on a case-by-case basis." The frozen assets should be used to financially compensate Kiev, and Russia will be able to access them only after "compensation for damage."

Russia has already called the Europeans' approach unconstructive. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Europe had chances to participate in the Ukrainian settlement, but it failed them. At the same time, Moscow expects the United States to coordinate with Europe and Ukraine the final version of the Trump plan.

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Formally, the European Union can lift or mitigate sanctions, but in practice this usually applies to specific individuals. For example, in September, the EU blacklisted businessman Pavel Yezubov and former Minister of Fuel, Energy and Coal Industry of the LPR Konstantin Zavizenov. In March, it was reported that the EU, at the request of Hungary, lifted sanctions against four Russians, including Sports Minister Mikhail Degtyarev.

Director General of the Russian Council on International Affairs (RIAC) Ivan Timofeev emphasizes that the European Union will not abolish the legal mechanisms governing the imposition of sanctions against Russia. In other words, Brussels will be able to resume restrictions against Russia at any time, even those that are lifted.

— That is, the EU Council Regulations No. 833/2014 and No. 269/2014 will remain. We see this, in particular, on the example of Belarus, against which the EU has been applying sanctions since 2004. They periodically mitigate them, but the legal mechanisms of these sanctions do not cancel them," the analyst told Izvestia.

In addition, there is the sad experience of Iran, against which the United States and European countries have resumed sanctions using the UN Security Council's snapback mechanism, laid down in the 2015 nuclear agreement. At the same time, Russia does not consider the procedure for the return of UN sanctions against Iran to be valid.

Delaying the process of lifting sanctions

Since 2022, the European Union has imposed 19 sets of sanctions, while it is known that the preparation of a new set of restrictions has already begun. In addition, the sanctions imposed since 2014 remain in place. The EU's promise to "gradually" lift restrictions so far looks too vague, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club.

— There are so many sanctions, tens of thousands, and therefore it is always possible to find some sanctions that can be easily lifted by a decision of the executive branch of the United States or in the European Union. There are sanctions that require coordination with legislative bodies, and there are those that require bilateral consultations and agreements," he told Izvestia. — Therefore, the whole question is what to mean by the lifting of sanctions. What kind of sanctions are being lifted, in what order, and to what extent this solution can become universal.

The analyst also notes that any EU country will have the opportunity to block the vote on lifting sanctions. Most likely, they may be the most anti-Russian states, in particular the Baltic republics.

— In some cases, for example, Estonia or someone else may partially block this process. Although, of course, there will be justice for Estonia if such a decision is made by the leading European countries. But so far they are more likely to identify with her," added Andrei Kortunov.

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Russia has repeatedly stressed that the sanctions have not had the desired effect, as they have failed to destroy the Russian economy. "The world needs Russia. And no decisions by either Washington or Brussels bosses are capable of changing this," Vladimir Putin said earlier.

— We proceed from the fact that the sanctions pressure is of a long-term nature and we are building our economy accordingly, with the expectation that sanctions will exist for a long time. Therefore, attempts by the EU or individual countries to manipulate this topic, to use it as a "carrot", I think, are hardly taken seriously by the Russian side, — Ivan Timofeev specified.

In recent years, Moscow has managed to diversify its economic ties, largely reorienting its main trade to the rapidly growing Asian countries. By the end of 2024, China, India, Turkey, Belarus and Kazakhstan were among the five main trading partners.