Paperball: The growth of cash in circulation has jumped fivefold in recent months
The volume of cash in circulation jumped by 659 billion rubles in three months, according to data from the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. This is five times more than in the same period of 2024. The Central Bank noted that citizens began to withdraw cash more often due to the increased frequency of mobile Internet failures. Cash seasonally left banks during the holidays, but this time the Russians did not return it to their accounts. The amount of cash may still grow before the holidays, experts say. Whether this carries risks and when the money will return to the system is in the Izvestia article.
Why have cash turnover increased?
In July – September 2025, the volume of cash in circulation increased by 659 billion rubles, according to data from the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. This is almost five times more than in the same period of 2024, when the figure rose by only 137 billion. There was a more significant increase in the same months only in 2022, when Russians sought to "stock up" on cash due to economic instability.
In recent months, Russians have begun to withdraw cash more often due to Internet outages, the Central Bank's information and analytical commentary reported. Izvestia sent a request to the regulator about the risks of an increase in cash turnover.
However, credit institutions did not observe a sharp increase in the volume of cash withdrawals in the third quarter, as reported by the press services of Gazprombank, PSB, and Dom Bank.RF" and Absolut Bank. There were significant spikes, for example, in certain months of the pandemic of 2020 and the crisis of 2022. This time, cash seasonally left financial organizations during the holidays, but the Russians did not return it to their accounts in the fall, the experts explained.
Now the increase in cash turnover is associated with their more active use. People began to pay more often with money already withdrawn, after which they return to trading, and then — through collection — to banks. As a result, the same amount of cash increased turnover without a noticeable increase in ATM withdrawal requests.
The trend towards using cash is associated with a deterioration in the speed and availability of the Internet, added Ekaterina Golyanova, Managing Director of Absolut Bank. In any case, citizens are now withdrawing a little more money to be able to pay in case the non-cash payment fails, she explained.
Mobile Internet outages have become more frequent in Russia since the beginning of summer 2025. The authorities explain this by security measures due to threats of drone attacks.
"For many, the shutdown of the mobile Internet in a number of regions has become a signal that it is necessary to have a certain amount of cash with them," added Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam.
In addition, the demand for cash could increase due to increased bank control over suspicious transactions from September 1, the expert noted. The rules for verifying transfers between individuals have been tightened and control over cash withdrawals has been strengthened. Some citizens may have decided to increase the share of cash payments in advance in order to reduce the risk of blockages and delays during operations.
In addition, people may be afraid of the increased attention of tax authorities to their money, said Valeria Popova, senior analyst at the investment company Rikom-Trust. Since July 1, 2025, the Federal Tax Service has been involved in banking control.: She received the right to check the cards on a spot — in cases of suspicious transfers or income mismatch with account balances — as part of the fight against personal income tax evasion and NAP (special tax regime for the self-employed).
How much cash volume will grow by the end of the year
The development of non-cash payment methods, despite everything, remains the main direction of economic development, said Valeria Popova from Rikom-Trust.
The return of citizens to more active use of cash speaks more about pragmatism than about systemic changes in the economy, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets.
The share of non—cash payments remains at 87%, which is one of the highest rates among the world's major economies. This dynamic suggests that the population and businesses value the opportunity to choose: in conditions of unstable communication, cash becomes a backup option, insurance. This is a reasonable diversification of payment instruments.
Russia has developed a convenient cashless payment system that is beneficial for both customers and businesses, Olga Belenkaya from Finam emphasized. The growth of their share was stimulated by digitalization, expansion of the fast payment system, bank bonuses and cashbacks, as well as high deposit rates, which make storing funds in banks more attractive.
However, now that the key rate has dropped from 21% to 16.5% since the beginning of the year, deposits are becoming less attractive to the public, although they guarantee high returns. Nevertheless, the banking sector has already faced an outflow of funds — in the first half of the year, according to the regulator, it amounted to about 200 billion rubles, Igor Rastorguev recalled. In general, deposit rates are now attractive enough that after the cessation of interruptions in mobile communications, cash will gradually return to banks, he added.
The widespread use of cash makes it difficult to control money and track transactions, Rikom-Trust noted. In addition, it creates conditions for tax evasion and the growth of the shadow economy.
The volume of cash in the fourth quarter of 2025 may grow by 0.5–1.2% compared to the third quarter, or by 300-400 billion rubles, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. This is due to the seasonal increase in consumer activity before the New Year holidays, when people shop more actively and prepare for spending. Nevertheless, in the new year, the population and businesses will return to the previous settlement model, as it is more familiar, operational and convenient.
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