Tariff acumen: what threatens Russia with the introduction of secondary US sanctions

US President Donald Trump expressed support for the bill of a number of congressmen, which involves the introduction of secondary sanctions in the amount of 500% against countries that purchase oil, gas and uranium from Russia. First of all, the duties may affect China and India. Such restrictions can hit the US economy itself, while Russia's partners, who have already established channels to circumvent sanctions, are unlikely to abandon trade with our country, experts say. About how Washington continues to put pressure on Moscow after the postponement of the meeting of the two presidents, and whether the new tariffs are dangerous, see the Izvestia article.

Why did Trump support the introduction of secondary sanctions

Donald Trump supported the idea of 500% import duties on Russia's trading partners. This bill is currently being considered in the U.S. Senate. If both chambers of Congress (the Senate and the House of Representatives) approve the initiative, the head of the White House will be ready to sign it.

— I've heard about it, and it suits me. Republicans are introducing a bill that provides for very tough sanctions against any country that does business with Russia. They can also include Iran," the US president said.

The Senate's initiative provides for a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas or uranium. Thus, secondary sanctions are not aimed at direct US trade with Russia, but at those who actively trade with both Moscow and Washington. That is, if China or India buys Russian oil, their goods supplied to the United States may be subject to duties of the same 500%. The bill, among other things, includes a ban on U.S. citizens buying Russian government bonds. In the United States, the combination of such measures is considered "devastating" for the Russian economy.

At the same time, Trump's mention of Iran looks strange and not completely understandable. There are two options. First, Trump made it clear that a 500% tariff on imports would also be imposed on Iran. But Tehran and Washington hardly trade with each other. In 2024, the trade turnover between them amounted to only $838.4 million. In this case, we are talking about the fact that Trump is trying to intimidate other countries with duties, including Iran, Georgy Ostapkovich, research director of the HSE Center for Economic Research and Economic Development, told Izvestia.

— This is essentially a continuation of the "maximum pressure policy" on Iran. If measures are taken, they will be rather symbolic in nature to show that cooperation with Iran will not be resumed," expert Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.

The second option is that Trump threatens Tehran by imposing secondary tariffs against those with whom Iran trades. That is, that he is expected to face even tougher restrictions than are currently in effect.

What bill are we talking about?

We are talking about a bill that was developed in Congress in the spring with the active participation of Trump's ally, Republican Senator from South Carolina Lindsey Graham. In May, he said that 72 congressmen were ready to support his initiative if Russia did not agree to start peace talks with Ukraine.

— The goal is to help the president. When President Trump considers that we have reached an impasse [on the issue of resolving the Ukrainian conflict], then wait for action," the senator said.

In his opinion, Russia will eventually have to choose between ending the conflict or "defeating" the Russian economy.

Now Donald Trump has recalled this bill in order to use it as a threat and pressure on Russia, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

At the same time, the fact that the sanctions levers of pressure on the Russian Federation have exhausted themselves is being discussed not only in the Kremlin, but also in the White House itself. For example, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said following a meeting of the foreign ministers of the G7 countries that the United States is running out of targets for which restrictions can be imposed. "I don't know what else needs to be done," he said.

The Russian side noted that the domestic economy has been operating under sanctions for a long time and has managed to develop immunity to them.

— We will watch how this bill is going, and we will see what details will be discussed there. Of course, we would react extremely negatively to this," Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, said on November 17.

The Graham bill could negatively affect both the U.S. economy and the authority of the American president himself, Bezpalko says.

— First of all, it will only increase distrust of the American state, of Trump's policies, and of Trump personally. Secondly, it will accelerate the division of the world into zones of influence, because those who did not obey Trump will not obey him anyway. And those who obeyed, they have long been part of the American sanctions policy against Russia," the expert believes.

Earlier, Politico wrote that in practice, the initiative could disrupt US ties with major trading partners. In particular, tariffs of 500% on Chinese goods will lead to a sharp increase in prices, disrupt supply chains, and may lead to increased unemployment in the United States and an abrupt halt in trade with China, which will harm Americans themselves.

In October, the Republican leader in the Senate, John Thune, said that consideration of the initiative had been put on hold until Trump's meeting with Putin in Budapest. However, later the White House announced the cancellation of the meeting, and the Kremlin explained that it had been decided to postpone it. At the same time, the Russian Federation and the United States are currently continuing contacts on the organization of the meeting and the Ukrainian settlement, Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on November 16.

Trump's latest statements about his support for the bill may remain in the air, as well as a number of his previous statements, Bogdan Bezpalko believes. He recalled that with his rhetoric, the head of the White House is working both for the domestic audience and for the Europeans, who expect such steps from him. At the same time, thanks to the dialogue conducted by both sides, Washington understands that, as a last resort, Moscow can respond with symmetrical sanctions, the expert believes.

What does the bill threaten Russia with?

According to Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, two scenarios are possible. The hard one is if tariffs of 500% are imposed on all imports from China, India, and other partner countries of Russia to the United States, and the base one is if these tariffs are imposed selectively on certain categories of goods.

Under the baseline scenario, we can expect a slight reduction in Russia's foreign trade turnover in 2026 — by about 4-6%, Vladimir Chernov believes. This will happen due to the discounts that Russian suppliers will offer to their partners, the restructuring of supply chains and problems with calculations. Despite the fact that in 2025, the foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation is projected to be about $ 650-670 billion, in 2026, under this scenario, it may decrease to $620-640 billion, the expert predicts.

If the United States chooses a harsh scenario of secondary sanctions, a bigger drop is possible, as large Chinese and Indian companies may become more cautious when concluding and conducting deals with Russia. In this case, the Russian foreign trade turnover in 2026 may decrease to about $ 580 billion, Vladimir Chernov does not exclude.

However, America has repeatedly threatened to toughen measures against Russia's partner countries. However, many countries did not want to change their trade relations under pressure, refused to follow an external political vector that contradicts their economic interests, said Arthur Leer, Vice President of the Association of Exporters and Importers, Managing partner of Lex Alliance Law Firm.

In 2024, China accounted for $244.8 billion of Russia's trade turnover, while India accounted for $70.6 billion, Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, recalled. These are not the countries that will easily give up profitable cooperation. New Delhi buys mainly energy resources from Moscow (85% of exports are oil and coal), and supplies medicines, food and electronics. Beijing takes oil, gas, metals and fertilizers, giving away machinery and equipment. These states have built mutually beneficial chains with the Russian Federation, which have been working bypassing Western sanctions for three years, he stressed.

Vladimir Chernov also believes that even if the American bill is passed, China and India will continue to purchase, but they will reduce official volumes and partially transfer supplies to gray schemes and work through intermediaries.

According to the Central Bank on November 15, the dollar exchange rate was 81.12 rubles. In the medium term, the national currency may weaken due to the weakening of the inflow of currency into the country against the background of falling exports, Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, drew attention. Only the high rates of the Bank of Russia can keep the exchange rate in a more or less stable form, he believes. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, by the end of the year the ruble exchange rate may reach about 86 per dollar.