Changing of the guard: NATO is looking for a way to close the gap after the reduction of the US contingent

After the reduction of American forces in Europe, all command positions and control levers will remain with the United States, Russian Ambassador to Romania Vladimir Lipaev told Izvestia. At the same time, additional military reinforcements to individual countries may come not only from local NATO members, but also from countries outside the region, said Eleonora Mitrofanova, head of the Russian diplomatic mission in Bulgaria. Anyway, after the reduction of American participation in strengthening the eastern flank of NATO, European capitals have to rebuild their security system. The allies claim that we are talking about redistributing the load. Whether Europe will have enough of its own resources to fill in the gaps without the usual reliance on Washington and who it will be able to attract as reinforcements is in the Izvestia article.

American troops will not leave Europe completely

The United States is reducing the number of its troops in a number of Eastern European countries. At the Mikhail Kogalniceanu airbase in Romania, the American contingent will decrease from 1,700 to 1,000 people, the country's defense ministry said. Similar reductions are expected in Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary. In any case, control and command will remain with the United States.

Photo: Global Look Press/U.S. Army/Keystone Press Agency

"This is not about Americans leaving the region, but about reformatting their presence according to changing approaches to military-strategic planning," Russian Ambassador to Romania Vladimir Lipaev told Izvestia. — Regardless of how many troops will be stationed at bases in Europe, all command positions and control levers remain with the United States.

The diplomat pointed out that the United States always has the opportunity to quickly strengthen the strength of its military group if they decide that it will be in their interests.

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"A potential reduction in the US contingent does not mean the withdrawal of the United States from Bulgaria or the region, although it fits into the logic voiced by US President Donald Trump that European countries should take their security into their own hands," Russian Ambassador to Bulgaria Eleonora Mitrofanova told Izvestia. — Multinational NATO troops are also located in Bulgaria. Moreover, Sofia is calling on the paramilitary bloc to increase its presence in the country.

At the same time, the diplomat added that additional military reinforcements may come not only from regional NATO members, but also from countries located far enough away. As US troops withdraw, their presence may be partially replaced by European contingents, as well as non—regional NATO forces, primarily from Canada, but also from the United Kingdom, if it belongs to this category of countries.

Photo: Global Look Press/Ian Kucerak/ZUMAPRESS.com

The main reason is the redistribution of American resources to other security challenges, primarily in the Indo-Pacific region, where Americans are intensifying their opposition to China. Americans believe that NATO countries should take more care of their own protection. "Our priority is to secure our own borders and focus on the risks associated with growing competition with China," said U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

Related to this logic are Trump's demands for an increase in NATO defense spending to 5% of GDP, as well as expectations that the EU will take on a large share of the cost of supporting Ukraine.

At the same time, the Russian Ambassador to Romania notes that the reduction of the American presence will in no way change Bucharest's role in the Ukrainian conflict.

— Romania has continued and will continue to provide military support to the Kiev regime, which, in fact, it does not deny. The specific amounts of "aid" and its structure are still kept secret, rather from their own taxpayer, so as not to ask unnecessary questions," said Vladimir Lipaev.

Photo: Global Look Press/Cpl. Mackenzie Binion/Keystone Press Agency

The main task assigned to the country by the NATO leadership is to ensure military transit to Ukraine through the common border, and Bucharest, according to the embassy, continues to perform this function as diligently as possible.

Will Russia take retaliatory measures

As the presence of Americans in the region decreases, European contingents may indeed take their place, experts interviewed by Izvestia note. This possibility was also pointed out by a number of Western media.

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— There is a small number of troops in Eastern Europe, so, of course, they can replace it on their own. Europe needs this primarily to compensate for the balance of power, because one way or another, militarization in the region continues," Alexandra Zueva, an expert at the Center for Military—Economic Studies at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, tells Izvestia.

At the same time, significant expenses will be required for the maintenance of their own troops.

"Theoretically, a replacement can actually happen, but do not expect it in the near future," Prokhor Tebin, head of the International military—political and Military-economic Problems Department at the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, shared his opinion with Izvestia.

Photo: Global Look Press/Julian Stratenschulte/dpa

Against the background of the gradual weakening of American influence, the European Union has already stepped up efforts to strengthen its defense capability. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed an 800 billion euro European rearmament plan. As part of this project, EU countries are increasing the production of ammunition and joint weapons development. For example, the German concern Rheinmetall will build an ammunition factory in Bulgaria worth €1 billion.

— The plans for the construction of the plant raise many questions from experts and political parties opposed to the current Bulgarian government, ranging from financing to the harmful effects of gunpowder production on the environment and the normal lives of people. But the most important thing, in my opinion, is related to what the very construction of such an object means: the build-up of military power. Who is Bulgaria arming against? So far, no one from the country's leadership has given an honest answer to this question," said Eleonora Mitrofanova.

The EU is also concerned that the withdrawal of American troops will affect the entire security system in the region, including the disappearance of the American nuclear umbrella. French President Emmanuel Macron proposed extending French to Europe, and Paris and London agreed to coordinate their nuclear forces.

Photo: Global Look Press/U.S. Air National Guard/ZUMAPRESS.com

In Russia, the situation is assessed as a technical reshuffle of forces, which does not imply a sharp change in the balance in the region.

— An extra battalion of ground troops or paratroopers in Bulgaria will not seriously change anything. We should not expect any specialized reaction, because so far we have not seen any drastic change in the situation. Militarization, as it was, continues at this level," says Prokhor Tebin.

However, experts warn that if the departed American contingent is replaced by more combat-ready forces from Western Europe, the Russian side may consider retaliatory measures. "However, it's too early to talk about it now," Alexandra Zueva believes.

Which countries can replace the American troops

The Alliance emphasizes that the number of forces on the eastern flank will not decrease — there will only be a redistribution of responsibility. France, which already commands the group in Romania and is ready to increase the contingent to 4-5 thousand people by 2027, assumes the role of the leader. The German Bundeswehr, which has deployed the permanent 45th Tank Brigade in Lithuania and increased defense spending to 2.2% of GDP, is able to increase its presence in the southern sector. Poland, whose army has grown to 250,000 people at 4% of GDP, is ready to strengthen neighboring groups in Slovakia and Hungary.

Photo: Global Look Press/SANDER ILVEST/imago stock&people

Canada holds the northern flank: Ottawa is building up a brigade in Latvia to 2.2 thousand people. The UK retains 1,100 troops in Estonia and promises an entire division by 2030. Italy, the leading grouping in Bulgaria, may add engineering and logistics units. Thus, the European heavyweights, together with Canada, are forming a new framework of deterrence without the direct participation of the United States.

Turkey stands apart: although it is not considered a "European" country in the context of the eastern flank of the alliance, Ankara participates in the Bulgarian group, maintains troops in Kosovo and may increase its presence in Romania (across the Black Sea). However, its contribution is limited by political tensions with Greece and Cyprus and partnerships with Russia.

As for NATO partners from the Indo-Pacific region, their participation remains symbolic: Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea are sending small rotations to the exercises, but they are not considered as a replacement for the American brigades.