Deal in the sky: what will the warming between the USA and Belarus lead to?
The United States lifted sanctions against the main Belarusian airline Belavia, and also removed several specific aircraft from restrictions. This is Washington's first substantive step towards Minsk after several months of negotiations. Izvestia looked into how far the dialogue between the two countries could go.
The flight is formal
The United States has officially lifted sanctions against Belavia Airlines. The carrier can again participate in financial transactions, including receiving and sending money to American counterparties. Separately, the Bombardier Challenger 850 aircraft with the registration number EW-301PJ, which is used by high-ranking officials of the government of Belarus, was excluded from the list of blocked aircraft.
In addition, the US Treasury issued a license that temporarily permits operations with three aircraft "related to Alexander Lukashenko and the Slavkali enterprise." It is emphasized that these three aircraft numbered EW-001PA, EW-001PB and EW-001PH are no longer considered blocked assets, they are allowed flights, maintenance and other commercial and technical operations.
Igor Cherginets, CEO of Belavia, called the incident a significant event for the airline. "It won't affect the passengers in any way. We have been working steadily, and we continue to fulfill our duties. But there will certainly be changes in the non-public part. The supply of spare parts and components from the United States will improve, and it will be easier for us to work with the dollar," he emphasizes.
At the end of October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow welcomes the lifting of American sanctions against Belavia, although he considers what is happening to be a "crafty story." "In fact, this is a very limited exception to the ongoing sanctions regime. There, both in terms of flight range and spare parts, all this remains dependent on the American side. So there is more, I would say, an external effect," he said.
The doors are closing
Relations between Washington and Minsk deteriorated once again in 2020. Then the presidential elections were held in Belarus. According to official data, Alexander Lukashenko won, but the opposition and the West behind it did not recognize the results. Large-scale protests took place in the country, after which numerous EU and US sanctions were imposed on Minsk.
Later, the relationship deteriorated even more. In May 2021, a plane en route from Athens to Vilnius was forcibly landed in Minsk, and opposition journalist and blogger Roman Protasevich, who was on board, was detained. All this led to a new round of tension: the European Union banned Belarusian air carriers from using its skies, and the United States tore up the air service agreement.
A Ryanair plane en route from Athens to Vilnius made an emergency landing at Minsk airport due to reports of an explosive device on board. May 23, 2021
In 2022, after the start of its operation, the pressure increased even more. Washington then significantly expanded its sanctions lists, adding Belarusian banks, defense enterprises, as well as many officials and military personnel. The State Department has suspended the work of the US Embassy in Belarus, and the families of American diplomats have been evacuated from the country.
Relations between the two countries were in a severe crisis until the beginning of this year, when Donald Trump became president of the United States. Under him, Washington is less guided by ideological attitudes, and often acts according to the logic of business transactions. In addition, Trump set himself the task of stopping the fighting in Ukraine, as well as reducing China's influence in Eurasia, and normalizing relations with Minsk was needed to solve these tasks.
Roman Protasevich after the verdict was announced at the Minsk Regional Court. May 3, 2023
The situation in Belarus had also changed significantly by the beginning of this year. The country's authorities have completely cleared the political space of their opponents. New presidential elections were held in January, in which Alexander Lukashenko won another victory, in a sense, the page of 2020 was finally closed.
A cautious breakthrough
In winter, a rather cautious dialogue between the two countries began. The first contact took place in February, when Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Smith arrived in Minsk. This was the first meeting between the Belarusian president and a senior State Department official in five years. As a result of the negotiations, Andrei Kuznechik and Elena Movshuk, who took part in the riots, as well as an unnamed US citizen, were released from a Belarusian prison.
Later, several more rounds followed the same pattern. So, in April and September, Lukashenko hosted the special representative of the US President, John Cole, and in June, Trump's special envoy, Keith Kellogg, visited Minsk. Every time the Belarusian authorities released one of the prisoners after negotiations, the most iconic figure among the several dozen released was one of the initiators of the mass protests in 2020, Sergei Tikhanovsky.
Sergei Tikhanovsky, released on June 21, 2025, during a speech at a press conference in Vilnius
The most important event also took place in August. Then, before the talks with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Alexander Lukashenko. After the conversation on his social networks, the American leader called the interlocutor a "highly respected president," although earlier in the West they did not recognize the legitimacy of the head of the Belarusian state and did not name his position.
In such circumstances, the Belarusian authorities had been content with symbolic gestures for a long time — the very fact of meetings with high-ranking Americans was already important for Minsk, because it testified to the breaking of the diplomatic blockade. The lifting of sanctions against Belavia was Washington's first substantive step towards Minsk. However, it is difficult to say how far the parties are willing to go.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting with the US President's Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg. June 21, 2025
Firstly, a number of flight restrictions remain in place for Belavia, and the company's airliners are prohibited from flying to Russia, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Syria. Secondly, aviation problems for Belarus are far from the first place, Minsk would like to achieve the lifting of the embargo on the supply of potash fertilizers and petroleum products, but in these matters it is more dependent on the European Union, which continues to take a tough stance.
What the experts say
Belarusian political scientist Pyotr Petrovsky notes that Minsk has no illusions about dialogue with Western countries.
— There will be a certain improvement in the situation, because most of Belavia's aircraft are American-made. On the other hand, there will be no global changes, because the European Union has not lifted its sanctions. Accordingly, Belavia will not be able to fly to EU countries and fly in the European sky," he explains.
The expert adds that the dialogue with the United States is also causing concern.
— We see that Washington is playing a double game. On the one hand, they speak of a willingness to improve relations. On the other hand, they are encouraging the aggressive militaristic policies of Poland and the Baltic states, encouraging them to close the border with our country and take other unfriendly steps. Minsk is well aware of this, so the level of distrust towards the Trump administration is high," he argues.
Nikolai Mezhevich, head of the Center for Belarusian Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, says that lifting sanctions against the airline will help Belarusian civil aviation.
— The Americans will be able to repair their own aircraft, which is a serious plus for Belavia. However, there are still many limitations. Airliners are not allowed to fly to the EU, because European sanctions continue to apply, and Washington has also banned flights to the east. Finally, this is not the most important issue in relations between Minsk and the West. The key is the resumption of exports of Belarusian potash fertilizers, and Europe was the main buyer here, but now the position of Brussels has not changed in any way," he emphasizes.
The expert also urges not to wait for breakthroughs in cooperation between Belarus and the United States.
— In fact, Minsk needs much more to improve relations with its neighbors, including Poland and Lithuania, although, of course, while maintaining its sovereignty. Nothing like that is currently visible. Besides, a lot depends on the general situation in the region. Perhaps, if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ends, Belarus will improve relations with its neighbors. Although I don't expect rapid changes in this case either," he believes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
