Full-scale plans: Putin instructed to study the feasibility of conducting nuclear tests

Russia will explore the possibility of preparing for nuclear weapons tests in response to Donald Trump's calls to immediately begin such checks. Vladimir Putin gave such an instruction on November 5 to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Defense and relevant departments at a meeting with permanent members of the Security Council. The United States is actively modernizing its strategic offensive weapons: They intend to create a new intercontinental missile, a strategic submarine, and also deconservate launchers. Against this background, the head of the Ministry of Defense, Andrei Belousov, spoke about the possibility of starting preparations for full-scale nuclear tests in a short time. The President stressed that Moscow still has no plans to deviate from its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. But the Russian Federation is ready to take adequate retaliatory measures if necessary.

How Russia reacts to the actions of the United States

On November 5, Vladimir Putin convened the permanent members of the Security Council. Usually, such meetings, where important issues for the protection of the country are discussed, are held via video link. But this time, virtually the entire leadership of the country gathered in the Kremlin — this is the military bloc, the government, the presidential administration, and the parliament. Despite the fact that transport safety and the results of the Prime Minister's visit to China were on the agenda, the meeting participants discussed in detail Moscow's position against the backdrop of the nuclear issue that is actively swinging in the world.

Back in late October, American leader Donald Trump instructed to "immediately begin testing nuclear weapons" and clarified that the United States was doing this in response to similar actions by other countries. On November 3, Trump said that such tests were necessary to verify the operation of the systems. Moreover, the head of the White House pointed out that "Russia is conducting tests, China is conducting tests, but they are not talking about it." In response, the Kremlin said that neither Moscow nor Beijing had resumed "any nuclear tests," and called on the White House to clarify the statements of the US president.

Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, told the meeting that Russian Ambassador to the United States Alexander Darchiev had already told the Russian leadership that the White House and the US State Department had avoided answering the question of what exactly Trump meant by the words about an immediate transition to nuclear weapons testing. Against this background, the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Army General Valery Gerasimov, allowed the United States to actually begin preparing for nuclear tests: depending on their type, the Americans will need from several months to several years.

"The American side may continue to evade official explanations, but this does not change anything, because if we do not take appropriate measures now, we will miss time and opportunities to respond in a timely manner to the actions of the United States," Valery Gerasimov said.

Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stressed: Russia is not threatening anyone, but is developing its strategic potential. At the end of September, he declared his readiness to comply with the START-3 Treaty for another year, provided that the United States acts in the same way. Recall that at the end of this agreement, the parties will have no documents that would restrain their nuclear arsenals.

At the same time, Russia remains fully committed to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, despite the fact that Moscow withdrew its ratification in 2023 due to the US position. They signed it, but never ratified it. In total, eight countries have not approved the CTBT: the United States, China, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, Egypt and the DPRK.

Why did Putin convene the members of the Security Council

Experts see the meeting as a definite signal for Washington, which can be interpreted as a call to stop, think about the consequences and abandon the idea of testing, whatever it may be.

— Once again, the Russian position has been fixed. Unlike the American one, which, in general, remains unclear and even ambiguous. In other words, Trump is talking about a return to nuclear testing, but it is unclear what he means specifically. Are we talking about testing the nuclear weapons themselves, their means of delivery, what time frame, in what formats? Russia's position is very clear, and if anyone had doubts, they should have been dispelled once again," Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, told Izvestia.

The resumption of nuclear tests by the Americans may lead to the erosion of restrictive mechanisms that arose after the end of the Cold War, and this, in turn, will affect international stability, explained Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies. At the same time, the Russian side will not be the first to take such a step, even despite numerous reasons, because it is aware that this will put an end to the global moratorium and poses a threat to strategic stability.

— It is also important to understand the purpose of conducting nuclear tests: it is one thing to demonstrate force and maintain the existing nuclear arsenal in proper condition, another is to test new types of warheads. The latter could lead to a serious change in the strategic balance between the United States and Russia," said Tigran Meloyan.

At the same time, it is possible that Trump, amid falling ratings, will try to save face by entering into negotiations with Russia on arms control, Western experts believe. Given the cost, time, and complexity of the actions Trump is calling for, there is a real opportunity to convince him to change course and engage in dialogue instead of ushering in an era of nuclear anarchy.

This is especially necessary for the American leader against the background of his pre-election statements about his intention to resolve all new conflicts. And the resumption of US nuclear weapons tests will lead to the fact that not only Russia and China will rush to do the same, but other nuclear powers may take such a step.

— Trump can and should reconsider his plans to resume testing. First of all, the United States is completely unprepared to start them. The preparation of the landfill will take at least two years and will require high costs. Secondly, the United States will gain practically nothing from such tests, which they can no longer achieve as part of their arsenal management program, which keeps weapons ready for use using supercomputers, lasers and X—rays," Peter Kuznik, director of the Institute for Nuclear Research at the American University in Washington, professor of history, told Izvestia..

Third, it could usher in an era that lowers the threshold of nuclear war.

Russia's readiness for full-scale tests

Defense Minister Andrei Belousov delivered a detailed report on the actions of the White House on the nuclear track. Thus, Washington first consistently withdrew from the arms reduction and limitation treaties that had been in force for many years: in 2002, from the ABM Treaty, in 2019 from the Intermediate-Range and Shorter—Range Missiles Treaty, and in 2020 from the Open Skies Treaty.

— Of course, we must focus not only and not so much on the statements and statements of political figures, American officials, but above all on the actions of the United States of America. And these actions clearly indicate Washington's active buildup of strategic offensive weapons," Belousov stressed.

The United States intends to create a new Sentinel intercontinental missile with a nuclear warhead and the Columbia strategic submarine, as well as to decommission the launchers. According to the head of the Ministry of Defense, the United States is developing a new B-21 Ryder heavy bomber and a cruise missile with a nuclear warhead. Preparatory measures are also being carried out for the reverse conversion of 30 B-52H strategic bombers into nuclear weapons carriers. In addition, the new Dark Eagle missile system with hypersonic missiles with a range of 5.5 thousand km will be adopted by the US Army at the end of the year. The Americans are going to supply them in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe.

"The flight time from the territory of Germany, where this missile system is planned to be deployed, to the facilities of the central part of Russia will be about six to seven minutes," Andrei Belousov emphasized.

The Americans have also already begun implementing the Golden Dome program, which provides for the interception and pre-launch destruction of missiles from Russia and China. It is believed that this will be a unique anti-missile system that should fully protect the United States from any threats, said Dmitry Kornev, editor of the Militaryrussia portal.

— The Golden Dome will be built immediately with the space echelon, at least for threat detection. In fact, the involvement of SpaceX in the preparation and deployment of 600 satellites that will carry sensors for ballistic, hypersonic, cruise and any other missiles is already being discussed. The Golden Dome will be deployed over several years and will cost American taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars," the expert said.

The Russian Defense minister stressed that all these steps, including possible US plans to conduct nuclear tests, significantly increase the level of military danger for Russia. Moreover, Washington regularly conducts exercises of strategic offensive forces, the last one in October, with the development of a preventive nuclear missile strike on the Russian Federation.

— It follows from this that we must maintain our nuclear potential in readiness for the enemy to inflict unacceptable damage in any conditions and situation and act appropriately in response to Washington's steps in the interests of ensuring the security of our country. Given the above, I consider it advisable to begin preparations for full—scale nuclear tests immediately," the Defense Minister said.

He stressed that it is possible to do this in a short time on Novaya Zemlya. In September last year, Andrey Sinitsyn, head of the central nuclear test site of the Russian Federation in the archipelago, reported that the facility was fully ready to resume full-scale testing activities, as well as the laboratory and testing facilities and personnel, and the inspection could begin immediately upon receipt of an order.

— Russia has always strictly adhered to and adheres to its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and we have no plans to deviate from these obligations. At the same time, indeed, in my message to the Federal Assembly in 2023, I said that if the United States or other states parties to the relevant Treaty conduct such tests, then Russia will also have to take appropriate retaliatory actions," the president said at the meeting.

As a result, the head of state instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, relevant services and departments to collect additional information on this issue, analyze it on the site of the Security Council and after that make agreed proposals on the possible start of work on the preparation of nuclear weapons tests. The Kremlin stressed that Vladimir Putin had given instructions to study the feasibility of nuclear tests, rather than begin preparations for them.

The concern about the statements coming from the United States is fully justified, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. According to him, the departments will start working immediately.

— [Russia's reaction] seems quite logical and timely, given what Washington is saying and where the whole thing is going. Russia will closely monitor the development of the situation. But by increasing combat readiness in this area, we still rely on common sense," he said.

Western media have already reacted to Russia's arguments about the resumption of nuclear tests. The British Reuters news agency clearly heard the Russian president's signal, emphasizing that if the United States or any other nuclear power conducts an inspection, Moscow will do the same. A similar opinion was expressed on the American television channel NBC News, recalling that Trump's order provoked sharp criticism from nuclear scientists and experts on the non-proliferation of such weapons. After all, "such tests will not bring tangible benefits to Washington, but will only strengthen the positions of Moscow and Beijing."