Cyclone Series: New typhoon threatens Southeast Asian countries

The death toll from typhoon Kalmaegi in the eastern Philippines has already risen to 90. Almost half a million residents have been evacuated. Houses have turned into ruins, and people are literally being washed away by torrents of water. There are no casualties among Russians. Protests continue in the country due to corruption - hundreds of billions of pesos invested in anti—flood infrastructure have not worked. At the same time, natural disasters are a frequent occurrence for the country, and the tourism industry is prepared. In October, direct flights to the Philippines were launched from Russia, but to another part of the archipelago. In the coming days, the typhoon will head towards Vietnam and Thailand, where the season will soon begin. What risks this poses for the countries of Southeast Asia can be found in the Izvestia article.

A new typhoon in the Philippines

The Philippines is literally shaking. It's only been a month since the archipelago was hit by a natural disaster again. This time, typhoon Kalmaegi, or locally known as Tino, has arrived - the 20th this year. The death toll from the aftermath has risen to 90, according to local news portal ABS-CBN News. Most of the victims are in the tourist region of Cebu. A state of emergency has been declared there. At the same time, there is no data on Russians injured in the earthquake, the Russian embassy said. The disaster affected 24 provinces on the largest island groups of the country — Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. In the latter, six soldiers were killed in a helicopter crash during a humanitarian mission. Electricity supply was disrupted in a number of areas, dozens of flights were canceled.

In the morning, the epicenter of the storm was recorded 190 km west of Coron Island, Palawan Province. The maximum constant wind speed near the center reached 130 km/h, and individual gusts reached 180 km/h. At the same time, the state meteorological bureau PAGASA warned that strong winds up to a typhoon could spread up to 300 km from the center of the storm.

Most of the deaths were caused by landslides and subsequent floods. Houses have turned into ruins, streets are littered with debris, and powerful streams of water, carrying away cars and even huge cargo containers, leave behind piles of twisted metal.

About 400,000 people were evacuated in advance, but it was not possible to take care of all of them. Those who remained were literally trapped on the roofs — the water rose to the level of the second floor. According to the Filipinos, there was so much of it that it was impossible to just go outside. Amy Bobo from the small settlement of Kabadiangan told how she was literally washed away with her family. It ended in tragedy: her five-year-old son couldn't resist and drowned. "When my father tried to get out and climbed a banana tree, my son stayed down. We couldn't get him out," she said.

The situation may lead to an increase in domestic protests, which have become more frequent this fall. Moreover, they are connected not so much with the constant destruction due to natural disasters - after all, this is a common phenomenon for the archipelago — as with rampant corruption and misuse of funds, including for flood control projects, Pavel Shaternikov, a junior researcher at IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia.

— The main reason for the protests were "ghost projects" in the Department of Public Works and Highways. At the same time, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. supported the right of people to protest," he says.

In recent years, the country has invested hundreds of billions of pesos in flood prevention infrastructure, but many facilities have turned out to be substandard or even fictitious. Against this background, each new typhoon only increases public outrage: residents see that protective dams and drainage systems cannot withstand the loads, and damage and human casualties are repeated, Victoria Zakharova, a junior researcher at the ISSA RAS, explained to Izvestia. And this is not counting the fact that the Philippines' economic resources are already limited: annual losses from natural disasters are estimated at 1-1.5% of GDP.

Meanwhile, the elements are not going to retreat. According to meteorologists, a new tropical cyclone is approaching the Philippines, which threatens to turn into a super typhoon on Friday or Saturday — this is a particularly powerful tropical storm with wind speeds of at least 240 km/h.

At the same time, the "number 1" task for the Philippines is to prevent the so—called Large Earthquake with an expected magnitude of 7.2, which may occur along a fault about 100 km long in the Manila metropolitan area. Otherwise, according to local experts, the country will face 33,000 deaths and 168,000 destroyed buildings both in the capital region and in neighboring provinces.

Is it safe to travel to the Philippines and other countries in the region

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the region to natural disasters. On average, there are about 20 typhoons per year. In this regard, difficulties may arise in the tourism sector, but they are unlikely to quickly become widespread and systemic, Shaternikov believes.

Despite frequent natural disasters, direct flights from Russia to the Philippines have finally resumed. On October 25, IrAero Airlines flew from Irkutsk to Kalibo Airport, the closest international airport to the tourist island of Boracay. It is located in another region of the Philippines (west of Cebu) and is much less prone to typhoons. A few days later, a charter from Khabarovsk followed. And the Russians only confirm their interest in the direction. In 2024, over 27,000 Russian citizens visited the Philippines, which is 19% more than in 2023. And from January to July of this year, almost 18 thousand Russians chose the archipelago (+16% compared to the same period last year).

— I do not exclude that there will be flights from the central part of Russia. Previously, the destination was in fairly moderate demand — for sophisticated travelers. Right now, I don't think the natural disaster will have a long-term effect. A lot depends on how quickly the authorities eliminate the consequences that led to the evacuation of a huge number of the population. Russian tourists are absolutely not shy. If they say that everything is fine at the resorts, they will continue to fly there," ATOR Vice President Artur Muradian tells Izvestia.

Direct flights will be in demand, as they provide access not only to the Philippines, but also to the Southeast Asian region as a whole. Objectively, flights to Thailand are overloaded, says Elena Polltsina, senior researcher at the ISSA RAS.

Meanwhile, PAGASA reported that Kalmaegi is moving in a westerly and northwesterly direction. It is expected to intensify over the South China Sea, heading towards Vietnam and Thailand. Heavy rains are already forecast for the weekend in the northern Thai regions.

— This is a standard situation for the region. The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have many years of experience in rapid recovery from typhoons. The main resorts are being put in order in a short time. Direct flights have just been launched, and airlines understand where they are going. They lay down possible seasonal risks," Pollcina draws attention to.

At the same time, in the long term, there is a threat to tourism, and, therefore, indirectly, to the economy of Southeast Asian countries. The world has not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, and it was the tourism industry that took the first blow.

— The threat is directly related to global warming. There will be more such disasters, and here the problem is already reaching a global level and concerns not only the Philippines. They are aware of it all over the world and are trying to fight it. Another issue is that there are no effective mechanisms and clean energy sources that can fully replace existing ones," Shaternikov notes.

Scientists warn that storms are becoming more powerful due to anthropogenic climate change. Warming oceans are intensifying typhoons, and a warmer atmosphere retains more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall.