Caribbean Crisis: Trump's Venezuelan escalation comes to a standstill
The American policy of pressure on Venezuela is not successful. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the United States is likely to launch a limited strike on targets in Venezuela, the pretext for this is the fight against drug cartels allegedly supported by Caracas. However, this will not lead to a significant effect — the government in the republic is unlikely to collapse, while Donald Trump will come under a barrage of criticism from the opposition. Threats to Caracas can also be regarded as a lever of pressure on Russia — the overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro would mean for the Russian Federation not only the loss of a key regional ally, but also possible fluctuations in energy markets. However, this is unlikely to affect Moscow's position on key issues of dialogue with Washington, analysts say. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
Rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela
On November 1, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied media reports that the United States could attack Venezuela in the near future.
— Your "sources", allegedly "familiar with the situation", misled you and provoked the publication of false information, — he said.
On October 30, The Wall Street Journal newspaper wrote about possible US airstrikes on targets in Venezuela in the "coming hours or days." According to her, the administration of President Donald Trump has identified military facilities, airports and ports of the republic that may be associated with drug trafficking and therefore attacked. The next day, the Miami Herald found out that the White House had approved the operation. This information was later confirmed to The New York Post by a source in the White House. However, Donald Trump later said that he had not decided anything yet.
Adding fuel to the fire of the information war are reports that in the island state of Trinidad and Tobago, neighboring Venezuela, the defense forces have been put on high alert. Reacting to such publications, the republic's authorities stated that the local population had no reason to worry, and reports of an imminent change in the situation in the field of national and regional security were not true.
Earlier, the White House administration has repeatedly stated its readiness to use all available tools to counter drug cartels that are allegedly engaged in the production and transit of prohibited substances through the territory of Venezuela. The Washington Post wrote that the grouping of the US Armed Forces off the coast of the republic could amount to 16 thousand troops.
Amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima
Despite the statements of the American side about the absence of plans to strike Venezuela, the deployment of military equipment and regular flights of military aircraft indicate the opposite. Such statements may be an element of psychological pressure aimed at catching the Venezuelan armed forces off guard before a possible attack, believes Timur Almukov, an expert on Latin America.
— In my opinion, the decision on the attack in the White House has already been made, and now its parameters are only being clarified based on intelligence data. Judging by the military preparations, the United States intends to strike targets that they believe may be linked to drug trafficking. Further steps will depend on the reaction of the Venezuelan leadership.: Washington will take any signs of weakness as a signal for continued attacks. However, if the strikes prove to have serious costs and do not bring immediate results, Trump may stop the operation by announcing the achievement of his goals, he told Izvestia.
Maxim Gabrielyan, an assistant at the Department of American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, also emphasizes that American strikes, in fact, will not change anything.
US Navy Destroyer USS Gravely (DDG-107)
— I'm inclined to believe that there will be strikes, I'm not sure that they will somehow indirectly change the situation. In my opinion, there will just be a few blows, the American side will declare a "great victory," but this will not change the situation in the region, either in Venezuela itself or in relations with the United States," he says. — Former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and current leader Nicolas Maduro have been very successful in forming their own military elite, and the influence of the military as an important pillar of power is great. I believe that due to the successful targeted policy of creating elite party unity, primarily with the armed forces, Venezuela is largely demonstrating resilience to pressure from the United States.
At the same time, if the White House does decide to strike, it will run into harsh criticism from within the United States. Democrats expect that Trump will get bogged down in the Venezuelan crisis, and he will become an analogue of Iraq for George W. Bush.
What is the United States trying to achieve
Tensions in the Caribbean region have risen sharply this fall following a series of U.S. missile strikes on vessels that the White House claims are being used by Venezuelan and Colombian drug cartels to smuggle drugs. Since the beginning of September, at least 13 similar operations have been conducted in the international waters of the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific Ocean. At least 60 people died as a result.
In response, Nicolas Maduro signed a decree that gives him and the army expanded powers in the event of a "military threat" concerning mobilization and control of critical infrastructure. Caracas has also decided to deploy troops to the Caribbean coast. The Venezuelan leader said that about 1 million militias would be mobilized.
Officially, the escalation is motivated by the fight against drug trafficking. However, in Caracas, they are convinced that the real goal of the United States is a change of power. On October 7, President Trump ordered the curtailment of all diplomatic efforts to normalize relations with Venezuela.
The Republic plays a minimal role in Latin American drug trafficking. According to the relevant UN office, 87% of drugs produced in Colombia are sent to the United States and Europe, bypassing Venezuela, across the ocean. Only 5% pass through this country.
Donald Trump
— Trump is annoyed by the existence of the Venezuelan Bolivarian regime, and he is also annoyed by the policies of Nicolas Maduro. He is also somewhat annoyed by the fact that the Biden administration has tried to normalize relations with Venezuela to some extent, partially lift sanctions, and restore oil imports. Trump obviously wants to dismantle all this past, and he is trying to return everything to the situation in 2019, when part of the Western world did not recognize Maduro," says Maxim Gabrielyan from St. Petersburg State University.
How will the escalation affect US relations with Russia
On October 31, The Washington Post reported that Venezuela had asked Russia for military assistance in connection with the buildup of American forces in the Caribbean region. According to media reports, the country's authorities have also turned to China and Iran with similar requests.
By the way, the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Venezuela became the topic for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on October 10. Caracas had previously requested a meeting, and Moscow and Beijing supported his request. The Russian Federation as a whole has repeatedly defended Venezuela's sovereignty.
On October 30, the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that Russia continues to support the Venezuelan leadership in protecting national sovereignty.
— We (Russia. Of course, we support the Venezuelan leadership in protecting national sovereignty, taking into account the dynamics of the international and regional situation," said Maria Zakharova, the official representative of the ministry.
She noted that the Russian Federation remains in contact with the Venezuelan authorities and is ready to respond promptly to requests from partners, taking into account both current and potential threats. Zakharova also stressed that the two countries will continue to work "shoulder to shoulder."
Earlier, the Latin American country's ambassador to Russia, Jesus Rafael Salazar Velazquez, stressed that Venezuela would be ready to accept mediation efforts from the Russian Federation to resolve the crisis in relations with the United States.
On October 27, Vladimir Putin signed a law on the ratification of the strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Venezuela. The document pays special attention to cooperation in the field of arms control, reduction and non-proliferation. The parties also intend to create an independent financial infrastructure and strengthen cooperation in the energy sector.
However, in addition to the obvious domestic political motives in the escalation between the United States and Venezuela, it cannot be ruled out that one of the main supporters of regime change in Caracas, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, presented this idea to Trump as an additional lever of pressure on Russia, believes Timur Almukov, an expert on Latin America. The fall of the Maduro regime would mean for Moscow not only the loss of a key regional ally, but also possible fluctuations in energy markets. However, such actions are unlikely to influence Russia's position.
— Vladimir Putin stressed last week that no self-respecting country makes decisions under external pressure. Moscow, as before, will conduct a dialogue with Washington and determine its next steps in the Ukrainian conflict based solely on national interests, the expert says.
Maxim Gabrielyan stressed that the Russian Federation will do everything necessary to support Venezuela at the political level. In his opinion, Moscow will officially express its support and emphasize the importance of the strategic partnership agreement with Caracas.
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