The second Azovstal: what awaits the Ukrainian military in Donbass

Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov in his report to the head of state reported on the successes of the Russian troops. According to him, groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a total of more than 10 thousand people are surrounded in the Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeysky directions. What is happening strongly resembles the events of two years ago, when units assembled from representatives of nationalist organizations were surrounded on the ruins of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. Then Vladimir Zelensky ordered to stop resisting and surrender. Now, nothing like this is happening, because the soldiers recruited during the mobilization are trapped. In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for creating the necessary conditions for the possibility of surrendering the enemy. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

The Chief of the General Staff reported on the situation at the front

On October 26, the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, reported to President Vladimir Putin on the situation in the SVR zone. According to him, today there are two directions. The first one is Red Army. Here, Russian units surrounded the enemy in the area of the cities of Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov (the Ukrainian names are Pokrovsk and Mirnograd), as a result, up to 5.5 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were blocked.

Gerasimov noted that a total of 31 battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are surrounded. "The successful conduct of the operation was facilitated by the infliction of complex fire damage to formations of the armed forces of Ukraine to the full depth of their operational structure, as well as the isolation of the combat area in order to disrupt the uninterrupted supply of enemy units," he stressed.

The second direction is Kupyansk, where Russian units made a detour, captured the crossings over the Oskol River and were able to surround the city of Kupyansk. According to Gerasimov, up to 5,000 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are blocked here. "Units of the 14th, 43rd, and 116th mechanized brigades of the enemy, as well as the 1st brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, are surrounded - a total of 18 combat battalions," he reported.

Vladimir Putin said that the Ukrainian forces will try to unblock their groups, for this they can take actions "both from the outside and from the inside." He also instructed to ensure the safety of the civilian population, "which the Ukrainian military uses as a shield." According to him, local residents should receive all necessary assistance and take measures to evacuate them.

President Putin called for creating conditions for the surrender of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers

Ukrainian officials indirectly acknowledge the difficult situation near Krasnoarmeysk, which they call Pokrovsk. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, complained about the commanders' lies during one of the meetings on the situation in this area. "I once again stressed the inadmissibility of distorting and concealing information about the real situation in reports. Dishonesty has too high a price — the lives of our soldiers," he said.

In turn, Verkhovna Rada deputy Mariana Bezuglaya wrote that soon the Kiev authorities will completely lose Kupyansk. "It's a matter of time, the point of irreversibility has been passed. The Russians are already fully in the city. But the General Staff and controlled bloggers continue to fable about a non—existent counteroffensive," she noted, also complaining about lies in the reports.

The big question in this regard is what will happen to the Ukrainian soldiers who are trapped in these cities. During a meeting with the Chief of the General Staff, the Russian President called for creating conditions for the surrender of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers. At the same time, he stressed that it is not easy for the enemy to decide on this, because they "shoot their own people in the back and process them with drones."

The Ukrainian authorities, apparently, do not intend to give the order to lay down their arms. So, Vladimir Zelensky admitted that the situation in Pokrovsk and neighboring cities is "difficult." "Fierce fighting in the city and on the outskirts. It's difficult with logistics. But we need to keep going," he said. In another speech, he stated that "we will not withdraw from one part of our state or another."

I must say that the Ukrainian authorities did not always force their soldiers to fight to the last. In the spring of 2022, a large group of Ukrainian troops was surrounded at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. Then, after the bloody fighting, Zelensky allowed the military to lay down their weapons "to save their lives." As a result, 2,439 militants surrendered, among them were the leaders of the Azov formation (a terrorist organization banned in Russia).

Analysts wrote at the time that the Ukrainian army was actually divided into two large parts. One is a privileged one, which includes some advertised connections. They are well equipped and trained, and they use Western intelligence data. The other is the regular units, the recruits come here as a result of forced mobilization, the supply is carried out on a residual basis.

Accordingly, they try to save the former in case of difficulties, while the latter are encouraged to stick to the last. This is also what the SS men themselves, who ended up in Russian captivity, say. For example, soldier Vitaly Nemets, in a video interview distributed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, said that near Krasnoarmeysk, "specialists" were given the "command to roll back," but others were ordered to "stay in position."

According to the prisoner, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have very heavy losses in the area of Krasnoarmeysk. "You go and see [the dead], these are your brothers. Who may have asked for a retreat, but were unable to do so. They just weren't allowed to do it. That's the attitude we have. When I first got there, I already realized that it was a one—way ticket," he said.