Show me by all means: the Houthis have set new conditions for peace in Yemen

The Houthis named the conditions for resuming the peace process in Yemen: in particular, they demanded that Saudi Arabia unfreeze the funds of the companies supporting them. This was stated to Izvestia by a member of the political bureau of the Ansar Allah movement, Khuzam al-Asad. He stressed that the truce in Gaza has created conditions for the implementation of the "roadmap" for Yemen under the auspices of the United Nations. According to the Houthi representative, the parties to the conflict have a chance to open ports and airports, begin the mutual release of prisoners and begin the reconstruction of the country. Meanwhile, escalation is brewing in Gaza again: Benjamin Netanyahu ordered strikes after Hamas violated the ceasefire by firing at the Israeli military in the Rafah area. This may also affect the settlement in Yemen.

The truce in Gaza gives a chance to resolve the conflict in Yemen

The Houthis have put forward a new condition for resolving the conflict in Yemen: they called on Saudi Arabia to unblock the funds of individuals and organizations that support their regime. This was reported to Izvestia by a member of the political bureau of the Ansar Allah movement, Khuzam al-Asad. Riyadh had previously frozen the assets of individuals and organizations associated with the Yemeni Houthis. Since March 2022, Riyadh has blacklisted more than 40 individuals and companies financing the Houthis — all their accounts in Saudi Arabia have been frozen.

The Yemen Monitor portal notes that Oman is now actively engaged in the negotiation process between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in order to prevent a new round of military escalation. Earlier, Ansar Allah launched a campaign of threats in its media and social networks, allowing possible military actions against Riyadh in order to achieve an easing of Saudi and American sanctions.

According to al-Assad, the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip allows to intensify the settlement in Yemen. Earlier, the Houthis attacked ships, threatening normal navigation in the Red Sea as a protest against Israel's actions. On October 10, a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas came into force.

— The cessation of aggression against the Gaza Strip has eliminated the excuse that Saudi Arabia has used over the past two years, postponing the implementation of the peace roadmap in Yemen under the pretext of the need to stop the escalation in the Red Sea. Now, after the cessation of Yemeni military operations in support of Gaza, there is no longer any reason to delay or avoid resuming the peace process," al-Assad said.

According to Saba news agency, UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg intends to use the favorable conditions that have arisen after the cessation of hostilities in Gaza and return negotiations to a constructive course.

Among the first signals of de—escalation is the discussion of the resumption of flights between Sanaa and Oman, which is considered as part of measures to reduce tension and prepare for a further settlement.

However, al-Assad noted that so far it is impossible to talk about real progress in the implementation of the points of the roadmap agreed upon through the mediation of Oman and under the auspices of the United Nations. Practical steps require concrete actions on the part of Riyadh. Other key demands of the Houthis include, in addition to unblocking assets, lifting the blockade on Yemeni ports and airports, the mutual release of all prisoners, compensation for damages, and compensation.

However, the favorable external background against which statements were made about the possibility of resuming a peaceful settlement changed dramatically on October 28. In fact, it was not so easy to move to a truce in Gaza. On October 28, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the military to launch large-scale strikes on the sector again. According to Israeli television Channel 12, the order came after Hamas fighters violated the ceasefire and opened fire on the Israeli military in the Rafah area in the southern sector.

Earlier in the day, Netanyahu's office accused Hamas of forgery in handing over the remains of a deceased hostage. Israeli forensic experts have established that the coffin handed over on October 27 contained part of the remains of a man whose body was returned almost two years ago. In this regard, the Israeli side declared a violation by the Palestinian movement of agreements on the exchange of bodies of the dead and non-compliance with the terms of the truce. The deal, brokered by the United States, Qatar and Turkey, provided for a cease-fire and the release of all living hostages and the return of the bodies of deceased prisoners.

Conflict resolution in Yemen

Now is indeed the right moment for Yemen to resume the frozen peace process, says Sergey Serebrov, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

— The regime of sustainable de-escalation, introduced in April 2022, was actually frozen after the events of October 7, 2023 in Gaza. Despite the preparation of the draft roadmap, the process was not completed due to the start of coalition operations codenamed Guardian of Prosperity and Wild Rider, as well as the intervention of the United States and Great Britain," he explained in an interview with Izvestia.

This regime of sustained de-escalation, that is, in fact, a truce, was declared for two months with the opening of the airport in Sanaa and ports in Hodeidah and extended until October thanks to the efforts of the UN special Envoy.

A key obstacle to extending the truce was the salary arrears of civil servants in northern Yemen. In 2016, the headquarters of the Central Bank, through which income was traditionally accumulated to pay civil servants, was moved from Sanaa to Aden. After that, control over financial flows and oil revenues passed to the government, supported by Riyadh.

In response, an alternative finance center with limited resources was established in Sana'a, which led to the accumulation of significant debt. The payment of salaries through oil export revenues has become a central point of the UN roadmap and a condition for extending the truce and further negotiations on a peaceful settlement. The resumption of financial flows and the intensification of the political process are necessary to stabilize the internal situation in Yemen.

Houthis may repeat attacks on Saudi targets

Serebrov also warns of a high probability of escalation if the settlement process is frozen again.

— The unacceptability of freezing the conflict is obvious due to the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe, especially in areas under Houthi control, where more than 70% of the population lives. The Syrian regime has consolidated since 2016, the Houthis have strengthened their influence, and any delays in advancing the peace plan can be perceived as a reason for escalation," the expert noted.

He added that in this case, it is possible to repeat attacks on facilities, including oil facilities, in Saudi Arabia. Such attacks remain the main tool of the Houthis' pressure on Riyadh and the Arab coalition in order to preserve the chance to advance the peace process.

— There are many interested actors in the region who may try to torpedo the agreement. Israel perceives the Houthis as a strategic enemy, and the United States and Britain are trying to limit their influence in the Red Sea. If Saudi Arabia decides to support the [peace] process, it will completely change the situation in the region," the expert stressed.

At the international level, Russia is also supporting efforts to resolve the conflict. Moscow is contributing to the processes aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict. In particular, on October 21, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks with the head of the Southern Transitional Council, Aidarus al-Zubeidi. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation stressed the need to launch a comprehensive national dialogue under the auspices of the United Nations to resolve current issues.

In addition, according to the Al-Akhbar newspaper, the Russian ambassador to Yemen, Yevgeny Kudrov, is in contact with Yemeni officials discussing the impact of the cessation of hostilities in Gaza on the internal and external situation in Yemen.