Future work: only one in ten self-employed people will voluntarily retire

Only one in ten self-employed people will make voluntary contributions to retirement, follows from the conclusion of the Accounting Chamber on the draft budget of the Social Fund (Izvestia studied the document). According to the forecast, this year the number of participants in the program will grow tenfold compared to 2024, and by 2028 it will reach 1.5 million people. However, even this figure remains insignificant against the background of the regime's rapidly growing popularity. If self-employed people do not start paying contributions or start hiring, most of them will remain with a minimum pension in the future. At the same time, the burden on the budget will increase, since the state will have to support financially disadvantaged elderly citizens. What will happen to the self—employment regime after 2028 and how this category can secure benefits in case of illness - in the material of Izvestia.

How to get pensions and sick leave for the self-employed

This year, 527,000 self-employed people will voluntarily contribute funds to their retirement. By 2028, their number will triple to 1.5 million people. Such a forecast is contained in the conclusion of the Accounting Chamber (JV) on the draft budget of the Social Fund. Izvestia sent a request to the SFR.

In addition, starting next year, self-employed people will have the opportunity to apply for health insurance. According to the authorities, 684,000 people will choose the program at the start, and about 1.2 million by 2028. The authorities have allocated 1 billion rubles for 2026, 9 billion for 2027 and almost 19 billion for 2028 for sick leave payments for the self-employed.

The self-employed do not make mandatory contributions to pension and medical funds. Unlike employees, for whom the employer makes deductions, they do not have the right to an insurance pension and hospital benefits. At the same time, the self-employed can voluntarily participate in the system. The minimum amount of such pension contributions is 22% of the minimum wage for each month. In 2025, this is 59.2 thousand rubles per year.

At the same time, the right to receive hospital payments will appear in 2026 and will last until the end of 2028. This will allow you to voluntarily insure yourself in case of temporary disability. In fact, participants will be able to create their own "reserve" for benefits in advance.

There are two options for the insured amount — 35 thousand or 50 thousand rubles. The contribution rate will be 3.84% of the selected amount. The right to a 70% benefit arises after six months of continuous payment, and in full after a year.

The amount of the payment will depend on the insurance period and the period of participation in the program. If the self-employed person does not take sick leave within two years and regularly pays their dues, then starting from the 25th month, the amount of monthly payments will decrease by 30%.

The self-employed have the right to health insurance: 37% of the NPD is transferred to the Compulsory Health Insurance Fund, Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam Federal State Enterprise, reminded. This allows them to receive free care in government clinics. However, they are not entitled to paid sick leave.

Large collection: how fraudsters speculate on the topic of paying taxes by Russians

Scammers activate their schemes before the single payment deadline

How many self-employed people retire

If a self-employed person does not transfer pension contributions to the Social Fund, he will only be able to count on a social payment that is significantly lower than insurance, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam.

According to the conclusion of the joint venture, in 2025 the average social pension will amount to almost 15 thousand rubles, and by 2028 it will grow to 18 thousand. The insurance in the same periods will be about 25 thousand and 30 thousand, respectively. The difference is about 1.6 times.

According to the Federal Tax Service, more than 14.6 million self-employed people were registered in Russia in September. If the forecast for 2025 comes true and 527,000 people start making pension contributions, this will amount to only about 3% of the total number of self-employed people. At the same time, according to the Social Fund, last year only 53 thousand self-employed people transferred pension contributions, that is, ten times less than expected this year. A comparison of the statistics of the Federal Tax Service and the Federal Tax Service shows that in 2024, less than 0.5% of all self-employed people voluntarily formed pension rights.

By 2028, if the number of self-employed who voluntarily contribute to retirement does reach 1.5 million people, and their total number remains at 15 million, about one in ten will make pension contributions, Izvestia estimates. However, the Federal Tax Service expects the growth of NPD payers to 18 million by 2029. In this case, even if the contribution forecast is fulfilled, the share of program participants will be only about 8%.

— This is a very serious problem, since the majority of the self-employed do not receive funds either to pay for sick leave or to form pension rights. Employers who transfer employees to self—employed status do this primarily to reduce or eliminate the cost of mandatory social contributions," said Yulia Dolzhenkova, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Firm secrets: Authorities want to gain access to tax trade secrets

The Ministry of Industry and Trade suggests that the Federal Tax Service disclose pricing data — will this help combat the sharp increase in the cost of goods

According to her, this approach increases the burden on the SFR. At the same time, the self-employed themselves are deprived of disability benefits, which reduces the quality of life and increases social risks. In the future, this will lead to an increase in the number of elderly people without income. As a result, the state will have to make payments to such citizens up to the regional subsistence level, which will increase the budget burden and increase inequality between subjects, the professor noted.

However, the self—employed may have several sources of income - for example, they are able to combine employment and NPA status activities. In this case, the employer already transfers mandatory insurance premiums for them, Olga Belenkaya explained. In addition, some of them are already retired and use this regime, for example, for part-time work or rental housing. Therefore, the actual situation with the replenishment of health insurance or pension systems, as well as with the future financial situation of the self-employed, may not be so gloomy, she added.

At the same time, the number of self-employed people who are willing to make contributions can really increase if social advertising and an information campaign are effectively built, Yulia Dolzhenkova believes.

How to change the regime of the self-employed

However, as the end of the NAP experiment approaches, suggestions from government and business representatives about possible regime changes are becoming more frequent. In particular, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin, noted in an interview that it is necessary to bring the self-employed into the general system of wages and social contributions after 2028.

Also this year, Anatoly Nikitin, a deputy of the Moscow Regional Duma, proposed obliging the self-employed to transfer 2% of their income to an insurance pension. The initiative was supported by the Federation Council. Member of the Federation Council Olga Epifanova stated that these funds should be automatically sent to the Social Fund. According to her, the idea is "progressive and vitally overdue."

The State Duma also stated that the self-employed will not be required to pay insurance premiums for retirement until at least 2028. According to Svetlana Bessarab, a member of the State Duma Committee on Labor and Social Policy, there is an unspoken agreement between the authorities and the self—employed - the rules will not change until the end of the experiment.

— The introduction of mandatory insurance premiums may negatively affect the field of self-employment. Its attractiveness is largely based on low taxes and the absence of mandatory deductions, which makes the regime simple and accessible to citizens. Increasing the workload will lead to the fact that many self—employed will go into the shadows, and as a result, the state will lose more than it gets," said Viktor Lyashok, senior researcher at the INSAP Center of the IPEI Presidential Academy.

Conversely, Yulia Dolzhenkova from the University of Finance believes that the introduction of mandatory deductions for the self-employed is justified. According to her, it is important to ensure fairness both in terms of participation in the pension system and in terms of contributions.

As Olga Belenkaya from Finam recalled, in May of this year, at a meeting with Delovaya Rossiya, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that in no case should steps be taken that would drive the self—employed back into the shadows - one must be very careful in this matter.