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- Debts to the motherland: Russia will increase loans to other countries to 1.8 trillion
Debts to the motherland: Russia will increase loans to other countries to 1.8 trillion
In the next three years, Russia will provide loans to other countries for 1.8 trillion rubles, which is 14% more than previously planned, according to the new draft budget (Izvestia has studied it). The funds will be used for long-term investments in partner economies, infrastructure projects and the purchase of domestic products. For example, Iran will receive a loan for the construction of a railway, Vietnam for the purchase of military equipment from the Russian Federation, and Egypt for the construction of a nuclear power plant. At the same time, refunds are estimated to be several times lower — only 708 billion over a three-year period. But even with long maturities, intergovernmental loans remain a profitable tool: they strengthen Russia's position on the world stage, provide additional revenue to the treasury and support exporters. Who owes the most to the Russian Federation and which projects are being launched with the help of our country — in the Izvestia article.
To whom does Russia provide loans
In 2026, Russia intends to provide other countries with state financial and export loans worth $6.5 billion, or 599 billion rubles. In the next two years, the volume of loans will amount to $6 billion each — 575 billion in 2027 and 601 billion in 2028. Such data is contained in the materials for the draft budget for the next three years (Izvestia has studied them). The calculations are based on the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, according to which in 2026-2028 the average dollar exchange rate will be 100.2, 103.5 and 106 rubles, respectively.
Thus, in the next three years, Russia will provide loans to foreign countries for almost 1.8 trillion rubles, or $18.5 billion. Compared with the estimate included in the previous budget (about 1.6 trillion, or $15.6 billion), the volume of loans in ruble terms will increase by about 14% — by 217 billion, and in US currency — by 19% ($2.9 billion).
Loans are needed to complete the projects started, fulfill international obligations and support the export of competitive Russian products. By September 2025, 200 billion rubles have already been allocated - 40% of the annual plan, according to the budget documents.
Intergovernmental loans can be:
• financial — when a country issues a loan and receives interest;
• export — when one country issues a loan to another country so that it buys raw materials, products or technologies from manufacturers/developers from the creditor state;
• allocated specifically for major interstate initiatives.
The key purpose of interstate loans is to support national exports and consolidate the positions of Russian companies abroad, explained Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy. The funds are usually used to supply domestic equipment, machinery, construction and engineering services. This helps to load enterprises within the country and maintain employment in related industries.
"Typical examples include the construction of infrastructure and energy facilities abroad: nuclear power plants, hydro and thermal power plants, gas pipelines, and transport hubs," the expert added.
Loans are mainly provided to Russia's strategic partners and countries where its key interests are concentrated. According to Vladimir Eremkin, the closest economic ties have developed with the EAEU countries.: Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Funds are allocated to them for integration projects and strengthening union relations. In addition, some loans are sent to Asia (Vietnam, Mongolia and India), Africa and the Middle East (Egypt, Turkey and Algeria), as well as Latin America (Nicaragua and Cuba).
First of all, we are talking about the construction of nuclear power plants and support for the export of Russian high-tech products, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. According to him, Rosatom is currently implementing projects in Egypt (El Dabaa for $25 billion), Turkey (Akkuyu for $22 billion), Bangladesh (Ruppur for $11.38 billion), as well as in India, Hungary and Iran.
There are other major initiatives, such as the construction of a railway in Iran, for which Russia planned to allocate €1.3 billion out of the required €1.6 billion. Also recently, according to media reports, the Russian Federation has ratified the protocol to the agreement with Vietnam on the provision of export credit for the purchase of Russian military products.
The program for issuing state loans is formed on the basis of intergovernmental agreements with other countries, the press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia. They added: information about such loans is closed. However, according to the World Bank, the total debt of foreign countries to Russia at the end of 2022 was $28.9 billion (approximately 2.3 trillion rubles at the exchange rate of the Central Bank on October 21).
The largest debtors at that time:
• Belarus — $8.2 billion;
• Bangladesh — $5.9 billion;
• India — $3.8 billion;
• Egypt — $1.8 billion
• Vietnam — $1.4 billion
Most of the debt — $28 billion — was accounted for by long-term loans with a maturity of more than a year.
How to repay Russia's debts
At the same time, the income from repayment of loans from other countries will be noticeably lower than the volume of new loans. In 2026, they are estimated at $3.2 billion (294 billion rubles), in 2027 - at $2 billion (192.5 billion), and in 2028 — at $3 billion (221 billion). Thus, in three years, Russia expects to return just over $ 8 billion, or 708 billion rubles. Compared to the parameters of the previous budget, the revenue forecast has been increased by about 25% in dollar terms and by 7% in ruble terms — from $6.5 billion (664 billion rubles).
By September of this year, the countries had repaid a debt of 79 billion rubles, almost half of the expected volume for the year.
The difference between loan disbursements and repayments is related to the specifics of this tool, said Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets. Government export loans are granted for a period of up to 25 years with a grace period during which the borrowing country is not obligated to make payments. For example, when financing the construction of a nuclear power plant, the main payments begin only after the plant is put into operation — usually 7-10 years after the start of the project, the expert added.
The projected repayment of $3.2 billion in 2026 and about $2-3 billion in subsequent years reflects the repayment schedule for loans issued 10-15 years ago. In addition, the terms of a number of intergovernmental agreements could change, which affected the timing of payments, Igor Rastorguev emphasized.
— The forecast for repayment of funds is lower than for disbursement, most likely because Russia understands that some countries will not be able to repay loans on time or will do so with a significant delay. Recall that a few years ago, the Russian Federation wrote off about $150 billion in non-repayable debts to Cuba and a number of other states. When loans are given to disadvantaged countries that are outside the top hundred of the world ranking in terms of GDP per capita, it is difficult to expect strict compliance with the payment schedule. In such cases, the geopolitical interests of the state prevail over the economic ones," explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
According to the expert, it cannot be ruled out that such generosity is not completely gratuitous: cross-border payments from Russian exporters and importers pass through many countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. These states often act as intermediaries against the background of sanctions against Russian banks and fears of secondary restrictions on financial institutions of friendly countries.
In general, such loans, even taking into account the risks of non-repayment on time, solve several tasks at once, said Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC. On the one hand, they ensure the workload of Russian enterprises, stimulating the export of engineering, energy and infrastructure products. On the other hand, they strengthen economic and political ties with partners. According to the expert, in the context of sanctions pressure and limited access of friendly countries to international capital markets, loans from the Russian Federation are becoming an important tool for foreign economic policy and expanding its presence in emerging markets.
Natalia Milchakova added that in the future this could bring additional revenue to the budget through interest on loans, as well as stimulate the development of Russian industries and industries involved in the construction and co-financing of foreign projects, primarily in the nuclear energy sector. And this, in turn, will provide additional tax revenues.
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