Proved in Delhi: Russia and India have changed the structure of trade
Russia and India have managed to change the structure of mutual trade: consumer goods have been added to energy resources. At the same time, the parties have completely solved the problem with payments. This was announced to Izvestia by Akashdeep Singh, President of the Indian Business Council. At the same time, the republic will continue to purchase oil from the Russian Federation, which has traditionally been the basis of commercial relations between the countries. India has started paying for them in yuan, but the ruble is still used in most transactions. What are the prospects for economic cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi in the Izvestia article.
India sells new products in Russia
Energy resources have always been the basis of trade between Russia and India. At the same time, the republic's high demand for oil from the Russian Federation has created a serious imbalance in the economic relations between the two countries. In 2024, Russian companies supplied $65.7 billion worth of goods to the Indian market, while India earned $4.9 billion from exports to Russia.
However, countries are gradually solving this problem, Akashdeep Singh, president of the Indian Business Council, tells Izvestia.
— Energy resources and defense have always been traditional business areas, but now they are increasingly consumer goods — food, FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) are everyday goods that are sold quickly and consumed quickly, such as food, beverages, household chemicals, cosmetics and other basic necessities, as well as household technology, infrastructure," he said. — We are not changing our trade balance, but we are adding new positions.
India, among other things, is interested in supplying cars and spare parts to Russia (famous Indian brands — Maruti and Mahindra). As well as increase exports of textiles and medicines.
Over the past five years, the trade turnover between Russia and India has grown almost sevenfold, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said at the end of this August. New Delhi is one of the three largest foreign trade partners of Moscow. In the first half of 2025, the trade turnover reached $69.2 billion, Bloomberg claims, which is only 4.5% lower than between Russia and the entire EU ($72.5 billion). The authorities of both countries also expect to achieve a trade turnover of $100 billion by 2026.
It was partly possible to increase it due to the growth of exports of the Russian agro-industrial complex. For example, in 2024, the supply of peas from Russia to India increased 10.4 times — a total of 896.8 thousand tons for $424.9 million.
Currently, Moscow and New Delhi are also working on a program for the development of strategic areas of Russian-Indian economic cooperation until 2030. It is expected that it will create additional opportunities for deepening business ties.
— It should be noted that the trade turnover between Russia and India is extremely unbalanced. By expanding its exports to Russia, India can neutralize imbalances in mutual trade and reduce the large balance of rupees in our country," Evgeny Smirnov, head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management, told Izvestia.
That is why, in order for trade to become more balanced, countries need to strive to expand mutual trade relations and jointly participate in the development of international transport corridors. And also to give India greater access to the Russian market, including by eliminating more than 60 existing non-tariff barriers for Indian exporters, especially agricultural suppliers. According to Singh, the countries have managed to fully resolve the issue of payments.
"The issue of payment is no longer a problem," he stressed.
Transactions are carried out by direct payments involving rubles and rupees. However, the expert community claims that there are still some difficulties.
— In particular, the speed and continuity of mutual settlements in trade is limited by the fact that the payment infrastructures and banking systems of Russia and India are still not fully compatible with each other. The key problem is the difficulties in converting Indian rupees received by Russian exporters, since they cannot be exchanged for other reserve currencies or, for example, transferred offshore. In addition, the Indians are afraid of the imposition of secondary sanctions by the United States if they actively support such payments," Smirnov said.
Russian oil exports to India
At the same time, Russian energy resources are still the main item in trade with India. According to the Kpler analytical agency, in September Moscow exported 1.6 million barrels per day, thus maintaining its position as the largest supplier to the republic. Russian oil accounted for 34% of India's total hydrocarbon imports, as it remains the most economical type of raw material, taking into account discounts.
"There is a very simple logic here — India primarily thinks about itself, about national security, about our consumers, about our relations with different countries,— Singh said.
Although Donald Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi allegedly assured him of New Delhi's plans to stop buying Russian oil. Before
The head of the White House has imposed an immediately effective tariff of 50% on imports from India. The reason was the increased purchases of Russian oil, which, as officially stated in Washington, brings large revenues to Moscow, which can spend them on the army. However, the Indian authorities have not yet confirmed plans to abandon Russian energy sources.
In general, India is the third largest consumer of oil in the world with a high level of dependence on its imports (over 85%). In total, Indian refineries purchase raw materials from more than three dozen countries.
India has managed to switch to settlements in rubles with Russia, although the parties have also started doing business in yuan, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on October 15. "I know that such calculations (in yuan. — Ed.) have begun. I think the percentage is currently small, because most payments are made in rubles," he said.
Earlier, the Reuters news agency reported that traders began demanding payment of raw materials in yuan from Indian state refineries. Paying in Chinese currency makes it easier to make payments and avoid unnecessary conversions, as they can only be directly exchanged for rubles, which are necessary for payments to Russian suppliers.
The need to exclude the dollar from commercial transactions in Russia and India became particularly acute after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions against Moscow, but an attempt to abandon the American currency soon led to the fact that the money received proved difficult to withdraw from India.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke about the problem in May 2023: "Billions of rupees have accumulated in Indian bank accounts, and we need to use this money, for this rupees must be converted into other currencies. This is being discussed," he clarified.
Later, in 2024, following the results of the Russian-Indian negotiations, the Kremlin declared that the problem of "stuck rupees" was a kind of myth.
"You see the volume of trade, right? If there had been no payments, if the funds had not been transferred, then the figures that we have achieved would not have been achieved. There is a systematic development here, barriers are being removed step by step, national currencies and digital financial assets are being actively used," Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy head of the presidential Administration, said at the time.
If the Indian side pays in rupees, a reserve of this currency is created, with which we have nothing to buy, said Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Indo-Pacific Region Center. There are several compromise options, but none of them completely solves the problem: correcting the imbalance is a very long process, there is not enough expertise and willingness to invest in the Indian economy, and searching for a third currency like the dirham is risky from the point of view of sanctions. In addition, Russia does not need this currency in such a volume, the expert concluded.
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