They will enter into a policy: CTP in some regions may double in price
CTP for regions from the red zone may double in price. This will happen after the Central Bank expands the price range for compulsory motor insurance in both directions and increases the territorial coefficient for subjects where unfair actions with insurance are most often recorded. There are currently two regions on this list — Ingushetia and the Novosibirsk Region. In the whole country, the cost of the policy for the most emergency drivers will increase by 15% in the coming months, experts expect. Ilya Smirnov, director of the Insurance Market Department at the Bank of Russia, told Izvestia that the Central Bank's board of directors approved the project in October. In the following weeks, he will be sent to the Ministry of Justice, and in the coming months, the innovation will work.
What will the CTP price consist of?
In Russia, the CTP price range will be expanded by 15% in both directions for passenger cars and by 40% for motorcyclists. Now, when setting the cost of a policy, insurers are forced to shift to the upper limit, Ilya Smirnov, director of the Insurance market department at the Bank of Russia, told Izvestia. Their ability to customize tariffs is reduced. The Central Bank intends to change the maximum and minimum allowable cost of the policy in order to fix this.
In October, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia approved this project. They plan to send him to the Ministry of Justice soon, Ilya Smirnov said. It will start working in the coming months.
The cost of CTP in Russia is calculated according to the formula of the Central Bank. It also defines the boundaries of the tariff corridor — the base rate, which the insurer individually determines within this framework for each driver. Currently, for passenger cars of individuals, it ranges from 1,646 to 7,535 rubles, this range has not changed since 2022. To calculate the total cost of the policy, the base rate is multiplied by a number of coefficients. The region of registration of the car (CT), engine power (KM), age and length of service of the driver (FAC), the number of persons allowed to drive (CO), as well as the bonus malus (CBM), which increases or decreases the price depending on the accident rate, are taken into account. The cost of a policy for a careful driver can be several times lower than for an emergency driver.
After the changes are implemented, the cost of CTP will increase for the most emergency drivers. There are people like that who had eight accidents last year. There won't be many of these car owners across the country. At the same time, an increase in tariffs for them will make it possible to sell policies cheaper to careful drivers, Ilya Smirnov continued.
In addition, it was decided to double the territorial coefficient for regions from the red zone. It includes the subjects of the Russian Federation with a large number of unfair actions, for example, fraud. Currently, there are only two on the Central Bank's list — the Republic of Ingushetia and the Novosibirsk Region.
Due to this, the whole country will not have to pay for regions from the red zone. The money will not actually be siphoned, Ilya Smirnov explained. According to him, by increasing the territorial coefficient for risky subjects of the Russian Federation, the Central Bank will expand the opportunity to make the price more individual.
— The average cost of CTP has not been growing in the country in recent years. If our bet plays out, the price of a small number of drivers will increase, but the average cost of the policy will not change. <...> In the current conditions, the price tag will only move slightly due to the growth of spare parts, salaries, and inflation. But quite high competition for careful drivers in the market will keep prices down," he said.
How much will the policy become more expensive in 2025
After the described changes come into force, the upper limit of the tariff corridor (base rate) for passenger cars will be 8665 rubles, and the lower limit will be 1399 rubles, the Russian Union of Motor Insurers (RSA) told Izvestia. The territorial coefficient will also change. According to RSA calculations, the Central Bank plans to increase it for 14 settlements and reduce it for 12.
For Ingushetia and Novosibirsk region, the territorial coefficient will be doubled. Now, for example, for Nazran (Republic of Ingushetia), it is 0.82 for passenger cars, and after the adoption of the directive it will be 1.64. And for Novosibirsk it will increase from 1.56 to 3.12. This indicator depends on traffic on the roads, since it is directly related to the accident rate and traffic density in a particular region. In addition, insurers can take into account the situation with payments and the level of fraudulent practices in the region, the RSA explained.
Regions from the red zone are determined by monitoring the Central Bank. Various indicators are taken into account, which may indicate increased risks of fraud. For example, the proportion of insured events with the sign of "repeated occurrence" (when the same persons or vehicles were involved in an accident). In the Novosibirsk Region and Ingushetia, it exceeds the average in Russia by four and three times, respectively, said Yuri Strekalov, Director of CTP Portfolio Development at Rosgosstrakh.
Due to the two described changes, the CTP price can grow 2.3 times as much as possible, said Alexey Bredikhin, director of the ACRA Financial Institutions rating group. However, this will be an extreme case — we are talking about the emergency driver himself, whose car is registered in the region from the red zone.
In general, the individualization of tariffs even helps to reduce the average cost of CTP, the RSA noted. Thus, the price of annual policies this year fell by 5% compared to the previous year and amounted to 7.2 thousand rubles in the first eight months of 2025. At the same time, the average payout increased by 15% to almost 113,000.
— Currently, there are about 30% of undotarified customers in the CTP market, that is, motorists who, given their accident rate, do not have enough current base rate to assign a fair insurance premium. Thus, due to the expansion of the tariff corridor, the price of the policy should be expected to increase in this segment, and it will amount to no more than 15% for passenger cars and 40% for motorcycles," said Yuri Strekalov from Rosgosstrakh.
He added that the pricing will become more balanced. On average, the price of a CTP policy on the market will not increase or will increase slightly, within the limits of inflation.
Will the CTP price rise for careful drivers
The freer the tariffs, the better for less emergency customers, as pricing becomes more equitable, says Roman Lobodin, director of the Department of Compulsory types of insurance at AlfaStrakhovanie. In addition, it reduces the pressure on regions where the loss rate for CTP is at an acceptable level.
At the same time, in the regions from the red zone, the price of the policy will double, said Alexander Goryainov, Deputy General Director of IC MAKS. This will be the most significant price shock for car owners in these regions, as this coefficient is one of the main factors in the calculation formula, said Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto.
At the same time, customers with a good history should not worry, as the insurer will be able to use an expanded range of basic tariffs for them.
At the same time, if the cost of a policy, for example, in the Novosibirsk region increases by 100%, then in regions with a low accident rate, such as Moscow or Krasnodar, tariffs may fall by 10-15%, Alexander Goryainov believes.
The expansion of the tariff corridor was inevitable against the background of a significant increase in the average payment due to the increase in the cost of spare parts and repair work, Alexey Bredikhin noted. However, in his opinion, the average cost of CTP will also increase by about 15%.
In general, the liberalization of tariffs for compulsory motor insurance is useful because it guarantees the effective operation of market mechanisms, the expert noted.
In the future, it is worth considering the possibility of completely releasing the CTP price, as this will create a more flexible and competitive environment in the market, says Maxim Kolyadov, head of work with individuals at Insurance Broker AMsec24. However, the new procedure should be introduced gradually, taking into account the readiness of the market and consumers.
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